69.88% of precincts reporting
Clinton: 50.24%
Obama: 45.12%
Update 6: Clinton wins Nevada: With 70% reporting, I'm calling Nevada for Clinton. While Obama leads by about 10-11% outside of Clark County, Clinton leads by about 11-12% within Clark County. Clark County is two-thirds of the delegates, and The Strip caucuses are not breaking for Obama. This one was close, but actually the Clinton-Obama margin appears to be very close to the polling average. This puts a dent in my theory on Obama outperforming polls in caucus states.
Update 5: Clinton winning on the strip: Matt just called to say that Clinton is apparently narrowly winning the nine precincts on The Strip, and won his precinct 189-187. Even with the exit poll screw-ups in rural Nevada, that probably means Clinton wins. It will, however, be a lot closer than the exit polls indicated because of the exit poll screw-up in rural Nevada.
Update 4: The entrance poll wildly wrong on rural Nevada. With 33% 62% in, outside of Clark and Washoe counties, Obama has 485 delegates and Clinton 418 delegates, even though the exit poll had Clinton up 15% a dead heat outside of those two counties. That is a clear exit poll screw-up right now, and the state as a whole will be closer than the 14% the exit polls project. Further, within Clark country, the Strip caucuses were not included in the entrance poll. This isn't over yet.
Update 2: Shouting and Club Kids in The Strip precincts: Matt is on the strip, and says it is an absolute madhouse. People are in their corners and shouting out at each other. There is a culinary workers for Clinton section, a "nightclub kid section," and about every subculture you could imagine in Vegas. and they are all shouting at each other.
Update: Edwards not in the running: It looks like a two-way contest, so I'll stick with only updating Obama and Clinton for now.
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