Romney seems to have all the momentum in Florida (4.00 / 1)

With it being a closed contest I would be surprised if he doesn't take it, especially with Huckabee pulling out and McCain and Giuliani pulling from the same pool of voters. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a closely bunched finish tomorrow, something like 35, 33, 32.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 09:57:27 AM UTC

A third place for Clinton (0.00 / 0)

would remake this race.  What Obama needs is some sense of drama in the results that in turn would change the narrative.  A Clinton third place would definitely accomplish that.
A better than expected showing for Edwards would keep in the race through the 5th.  That does two things:

1.  It helps Obama by siphoning off White votes from Clinton in most places.
2.  It raises the possibility of a brokered convention if Edwards can get above the 15% threshold in the big states like California (which I think is unlikely - but possible).

My own read, FWIW, is that Clinton is actually going to win South Carolina. 

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by: fladem @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 09:58:31 AM UTC

Obama will win (0.00 / 0)

He has the best ground game in SC of any of the candidates.

I believe you are looking at ZOgby's one day polling.

Remember that is why they do 3 day rolling averages because you have these spikes. Edwards had a spike on Wed to 27 pts but his polling on Thursday was 19 pts. All of the poll's have still shown Obama IN 1ST PLACE.

This is not NH and Clinton does not have the establishment State party behind her. Obama HAS HIS NATURAL CONSTITUENCY AA WHO ARE NOT GOING TO SUDDENLY SWITCH TO cLINTON.

eDWARDS WILL GET A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF WHITE VOTER'S WHICH WILL KEEP HER ABILITY TO CSURGE AHEAD OF OBAMA LIMITED.

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by: BDM @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 10:43:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

shit, if this means Edwards needed another week (0.00 / 0)

I hurting something.  Well I did my part.  I wrote a diary on Dailykos yesterday that hit the top of the rec list to help Edwards with Phone banking using the Zogby poll you cited.  The daily snapshot poll showed a sharp jump to 27% for Edwards.  I counted about two dozen people that committed to helping with phone banking.  I hope that translates into a few thousand votes.  Hope springs eternal.

I wonder if the radio ad controversy may have nuked the Clinton and Obama teams?  I guess we will know soon enough.  What if Clinton and Obama spent like drunken sailors and Edwards has been hoarding what little money he had?  What if the January 30 filings come out and the three are even?  That may turn the situation on it's head.  Will the MSM pay attention and stop blacking out Edwards?  Sadly, an Edwards second place finish might not generate the jolt that a win might.  But with even CNN this morning and probably others still reporting "Edwards a distant third" maybe, hopefully, a second place finish will jolt the campaign, knock Clinton off balance and take the celebrity out of Obama.

But here's another thought, with the the GOP having more of a winner take all situation with alot of their delegates, aren't the odds increasing that either Romney or McCain will be the nominee?  and that one of them will secure the nomination by the end of February?  and it'll possibly be the Democratic nomination that could end up brokered at the convention?  What are the implications of that?  Clinton and Obama kiss and make up and add one or the other to the ticket to heal the rift?  If it goes to balloting and Edwards has a good 800-1000 delegates that he could still grab the nomination at the convention?  The ground is shifting rapidly, far more quickly than any of us realize.

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by: gaspare @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 10:08:37 AM UTC

Looks like a re-run of NH (4.00 / 1)

In the sense of a great deal of last-minute movement.

I liked FlaDem's analysis above until the last paragraph. With the high percentage of Black voters in the SC Dem primary, it is hard to see how Clinton could win, especially with Edwards gaining.  It sounds like it has been very nasty there.  That may turn some people off, but it may make them want more to vote for their choices, as happened to Clinton in NH.  Here it would be Obama's gain.

At least, it will make CA and the other Feb 5 states count for more, which is good.  Per yesterday's analysis, no one is going to sweep the delegate  count on Feb 5, and I'd wager that Obama does well in the 5 Midwestern states and South, Clinton on the coasts and maybe southwest, and Edwards is the wild card.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

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by: Mimikatz @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 11:10:58 AM UTC

SC is tightening fast (0.00 / 0)

while I voted for Obama and hope he wins the nomination, things aren't necessarily looking good in SC. Just from Political Wire today:

Clinton is making up support she is losing to Edwards from African American women age 50 and older at the expense of Obama. If this trend holds tonight coupled with a decrease in African American voting, the race between Clinton and Obama will be closer than our Jan 22-23 survey suggests.

That's from ARG, whose survey had Obama beating Clinton 45-36.

http://www.ProgressFlorida.org

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by: Ray Seaman @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 11:26:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah... (0.00 / 0)

as an Obama supporter, I am more nervous now about his chances for the nomination than I have been since November.  Things don't look good in South Carolina:  he is shedding support from both white voters (to Edwards, it seems) and older black women (to Clinton).  He really needs a strong finish here. 

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by: seabrook @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 12:30:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

ARG is Not Reliable (0.00 / 0)

ARG has had a terrible track record so far in primary polling. Their last South Carolina poll for Republicans had Huckabee winning by 7 over McCain, with Thompson 12 points ahead of Romney.  They were also horribly off in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Survey USA nailed South Carolina for Republicans, and they have Obama steady with a 16 point lead.  It is clear though, that Edwards is gaining on Clinton based on increased white support. I don't know what kind of field operation Edwards has in place, but it could make the difference in the race for second.

Furthermore, as a fellow Obama supporter, I can share your cautionary approach based on what happened in New Hampshire. However, Obama's base in South Carolina is the most energized, and his field operation in the state is flat out terrific. I think he'll win unless Edwards voters shift to Clinton at the last minute to stop Obama.

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by: Mo1239 @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 13:02:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope so. (0.00 / 0)

http://www.ProgressFlorida.org

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by: Ray Seaman @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 15:06:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

White voters (0.00 / 0)

Like it or not, that's who a lot of the spin will focus on.

If Edwards finishes first AMONG WHITE VOTERS, (even if third overall), that's a potentially powerful spin by the media. I.e. "Hillary loses both blacks and whites."

We'll see.

(I am an Obama supporter.)

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by: commissar @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 13:10:23 PM UTC

Georgia sixth (0.00 / 0)

Georgia is actually the sixth biggest Feb. 5 state in terms of Democratic delegates, not the fourth, following:
California
New York
Illinois
New Jersey
Massachusetts
http://en.wikipedia...._(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008

Clinton currently has large leads in four of the top five.

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by: markw @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 13:58:26 PM UTC