Now that Obama seems to have made February 5th very, very interesting for Democrats, it would be only fair for Romney to do the same for Republicans. Fortunately, he seems to be obliging, as three Florida polls released today all show Romney gaining. Zogby now shows a 30%-30% tie, while yesterday McCain lead 31%-28%. Insider Advantage shows Romney ahead 26%-24%, whereas yesterday it was a 23% to 23% tie. Rasmussen shows Romney extending his lead to 33%--27%, whereas three days earlier Romney only led 27%-23%. In fact, the last four polls conducting Florida tracking show the state moving from McCain 25.5%--23.5% Romney, to Romney 29.3%--27.8% McCain.
It looks as though both Romney and McCain are rising in Florida at the expense of Giuliani, but that Romney is rising faster. With only two days to go, it certainly looks as though Romney is going to win, but there is an important caveat: early voting began in Florida on January 14th. By Friday night, about 400,000 Florida Republicans, or 10.5% of the statewide Republican electorate, had already cast votes. Those voters will obviously be unaffected by any late Romney surge, and might even place him third behind Giuliani. As such, Romney probably needs to beat McCain by 3% or more on Election Day in order to take the state. While he is rising faster than McCain, leading Florida Republicans such as Senator Mel Martinez and Governor Charlie Crist are lining up behind McCain, thus making Romney's task more difficult.
So, even with Romney moving ahead, right now I think this campaign remains too close to call. If Romney wins Florida, he will suddenly have a good chance in states like California, Illinois, and Missouri. He also probably hands Alabama and Oklahoma to Huckabee, to go along with certain Huckabee wins in Arkansas and Georgia. If Romney loses, then McCain is the nominee, and probably sweeps on Super Tuesday. Florida looks like a decisive, tipping point primary for Republicans, and right now it is too close to call.
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