Extremely Close Florida Republican Primary Polls

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 05:42

• Five polls released today: McCain 32.4%--32.0% Romney
  
• Nine polls released yesterday: Romney 30.6%--29.1% McCain
  
• Eleven final polls mean: Romney 32.2%--McCain 30.3%
  
• Eleven final polls median: McCain 31%--Romney 31%
  
• Real Clear Politics average: McCain: 30.7%--30.1% Romney
  
• Pollster.com average: Romney 32.0%--30.8% McCain
  
• Number of final polls with lead: McCain 6, Romney 4, Tie 1
  
• Early voting across seven polls: Romney: 34.0%--30.3% McCain
  
• Trendline: Favors McCain
  
• ARG curse: Hurts Romney

Flip a coin. It looks like the trendline was favoring Romney until Florida Governor Charlie Crist endorsed McCain. While it appears that Romney has a slight lead in early voting due to earlier trends, it also looks like McCain has momentum that could cancel out that advantage. Still, the six final polls that show McCain ahead only give him a 2% advantage on average, while the four final polls that show Romney ahead give him a 6% lead on average.

I'm cheering for Romney, but my gut tells me that McCain will eek this one out. I'm basing this not only on the trendline and that ARG always seems to be wrong, but that elections this close almost always seem to break against the candidate I want to win (2006 Senate races notwithstanding). If McCain wins Florida, there will be no stopping him toward the Republican nomination. There might be no stopping McCain even if Romney wins tonight, but the longer it drags on, the more divided Republicans become and the more damaged McCain will be for the general election.

Come on Romney, pull this one out for Massachusetts!