Where Are Edwards Supporters Likely To Go?

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 06:24


In trying to determine if Edwards supporters will break more for Clinton or Obama, there are two main factors to consider: momentum and demographics.

First, which candidate currently has the momentum in the campaign? When a candidate drops out of a campaign, his or her supporters tend to break for the candidate with the most momentum at that time. In this case, that appears to be Obama, given that he has gained on Clinton for five consecutive days in the Gallup national tracking poll. While the Rasmussen national tracking poll appears static, and while information from state polls is spotty and incomplete, the past few days have seemed to favor Obama (at least before Florida). Overall, from the perspective of the Obama campaign, this was probably a pretty good time for Edwards to drop out.

Then again, looking the information from the five exit polls (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida) Obama might have needed Edwards to stay close on February 5th. Edwards performed well among whites and voters aged 40-65, both of which are demographics that favor Clinton. If there is hope in the demographics for the Obama campaign, it will come from men, and independents, among whom Edwards also performed well. While another strong demographic for Edwards has been self-identified conservatives, there is conflicting information on who that favors. There is also conflicting information on the attendance of religious services among Edwards supporters.

Combine, these two factors, and it is difficult to say for certain where Edwards supporters will turn nationwide. My instincts tell me that Obama faces a much more difficult campaign now, since he could have pointed to the combined totals of his delegates and Edwards delegates as a means of staying in the campaign longer. Starting tomorrow, polling will offer some clues on where Edwards supporters are breaking, and over the weekend there will be polls completed entirely without Edwards. The bottom line is that if Clinton receives the majority of Edwards supporters, this campaign is probably over. If Obama receives the majority of Edwards supporters, then perhaps Edwards leaving the campaign will prove quite timely for his campaign.

Chris Bowers :: Where Are Edwards Supporters Likely To Go?

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Where Are Edwards Supporters Likely To Go? | 30 comments
I get the same feeling (4.00 / 1)
Online, of course, Edwards' supporters will almost all go to Obama. Kos doesn't have to even do straw polls anymore. It'll be 85-15 Obama over Clinton.

Out in the non-virtual world, though, Obama will be lucky if he and Clinton split Edwards supporters. Remember when we were confused about the populist, progressive guy was getting all the conservative support? I'd peg those people to go to Clinton with her hawkish national security policy.

Obama might pick up the liberal and independent thinkers who support Edwards. And it certainly helps that Obama is riding a wave of momentum from South Carolina and the AU Kennedy endorsement.

I guess one other side-effect of this is that Florida will not be the top story tonight on any news broadcast or any pundit show. It'll be all about Edwards and Rudy dropping out. I guess that's another plus for Obama.

But Edwards is still on the ballot (4.00 / 1)
There may be a sizeable group of voters who (1) already voted absentee for Edwards, say in CA, or (2) will vote for Edwards nonetheless to "send a message" or follow their heart or whatever. Maybe some of those here can tell us how they will vote.  I'd bet that Edwards gets 5% at least in CA.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.
[ Parent ]
Yup, and may well still get a few votes. (0.00 / 0)
I'm a CA voter, and have been sitting on the absentee ballot (probably will end up dropping it off at my polling place at this point!) and am still probably going to vote for Edwards - I'm very skeptical of both Clinton and Obama, and I just put in a "No clue" vote on the Kos straw poll.

An Edwards endorsement before next Tues might swing my vote; anyone have a compelling reason why I should vote for either of the others?  Is there any reason other than to send a message (and to have voted despite not much liking either of those who remain) to leave my vote with Edwards - if he picks up a few more delegates in CA, does that give any continued leverage?

Heh, Gravel hasn't technically dropped out.  Last time I voted for Kucinich since by the time it got around to us, Kerry was pretty much in.  Thoughts?

[ Parent ]
It never works (0.00 / 0)
I've seen, heard and known a lot of "send-a-message" voters in my time, and I have to say that their messages have never gotten through.  Candidates don't view elections as popularity polls.  They see them as a zero-sum game.  Even if all he or she gets is 50-percent-plus-one, or even just a plurality, they behave and likely think as though they have a mandate.  That kind of thinking can prove wrong, of course, as Dubya found out with Social Security reform and Bill Clinton learned with healthcare.

You can disagree with me if you like, but I never once heard an election-winner say that "I got the message from the low turnout at the last election."  They probably view it as the voter-suppression portion of their campaign having worked the way it was supposed to.

Plus, message-sending and protest-voting can have unintended consequences.  Remember, were it not for Ralph Nader, we'd be reflecting on a Gore presidency right now.

My advice, choose your least-worst, go vote and vow to do more next time.  I'm sure there's a progressive Democrat somewhere in your district that could be groomed into the ideal candidate for 2012 or 2016.

[ Parent ]
Well, I'm in the district that Lantos is vacating... (0.00 / 0)
...for a pretty much annointed member of the state party machine.

I'm not at this point convinced that either Clinton or Obama is "less worse" than the other.  Whichever one takes it has got my vote in the general, as well as at least some money and time from me.  But I don't yet see enough to like about either to find much difference going ahead in the primaries.

As for message-sending, a vote for Edwards is still one more vote in the Democratic primary turnout - it may not send any message to whichever leading candidate "wins" California (ignoring, as the candidates and media usually do, that the delegates are split), but it at least will help reinforce the consistent message this primary season that Democrats are energized.

Whereas if I don't send my ballot in (the ballot measures this time around are mostly irrelevant AFAICT) it really DOESN'T send any message.

[ Parent ]
In California Polling (0.00 / 0)
About 40% of the Edwards vote is going go Clinton, and 25% is going to Obama. Here is where this polling (evidently a private poll) is being referenced

One of the oddest things about Edwards is that he ran the most left leaning of the campaign - and did poorest among self id liberals.  My guess is that his votes will go predomonantly to Clinton.

[ Parent ]
those numbers are actually flipped (0.00 / 0)
in the most recent field poll I can find.

http://www.field.com...

Where do you get those numbers for CA?

Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards.

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be surprised if clinton's lead turns out to be illusiory (0.00 / 0)
Clinton's advantage in NH and NV both could have been caused by great organization and media events.  For obvious reasons florida is absent organization.

Looking at the race to me it seems to be about 90% organization determining the winners.  After all Clinton and Obama are mostly identical as far as candidates go.  So I suspect that the campaign with the superior organization wins.

I think that edwards matters, but I don't think that his supporters are decided yet so it is up to each campaign to win them over.

Field Organization (0.00 / 0)
was critical through South Carolina but will be much less important when spread over 23 states on February 5.  It is reported locally here that Obama recently added thirteen paid staffers to the existing four in Kansas, and that Clinton had none as of last week. I don't know if that is true, or if the seventeen in Kansas for Obama were just to organize for yesterday's event, but it seems likely that earned and paid media will be more important over the next six days than they have been over the last six weeks. 

Do we get campaign finance reports tomorrow?  They will be somewhat dated but we'll get an idea of how close to empty these two campaigns are now running.

On balance, it seems to me that without an explicit endorsement, Obama picks up a few percentage points as the Edwards voters split between the two camps.  With an endorsement of Obama, the sympathy factor (two guys ganging up on the only woman, ala the pre-New Hampshire debate) would allow Clinton to edge Obama by a few percentage points among former Edwards supporters.

[ Parent ]
I think that the last two sentences are spot-on. (0.00 / 0)
Right now, I put my money on Obama.  As you say: the demographic indications are mixed, while the momentum is almost entirely with Obama right now.

But I am not disinterested....

I'm not jumping on the Obama bandwagon. Obama is the most (0.00 / 0)
fiscally conservative candidate.  Even though Hillary is the darling of Wall Street, her economic stimulus package was closer to Edwards.  Her health care proposal was closer to Edwards.  Her stance on Iraq and the Middle East is revolting.

I am voting for Edwards on 2/5.  He framed the debate and my vote will be part of an effort to keep the corporate candidates from tacking to the right.

Edwards blog is overwhelmed by people bitter and disappointed by the news.  Folks need to realize, despite the decreasing odds, that there is a significant difference between electing a Democrat, regardless of who it is, and letting McCain continue Bush's domestic policies for another 4 years.

I live in NY, so I am not sure if I will support the Dem, but if I lived in a swing state, I would.

I live in a true blue state--I will have a choice in November

What did I just predict? (0.00 / 0)
As I said above, Edwards is still on the ballot, and I bet he gets 5% at least, maybe more.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.
[ Parent ]
You're going to vote for McCain or Romney over the Dem? (0.00 / 0)
In what universe does that make sense?

Or are you talking about support in the sense of activism?

[ Parent ]
I assumed (0.00 / 0)
he meant third party (Greens or whatever).
[ Parent ]
This is about where I am heading... (0.00 / 0)
I will still vote for Edwards here in MA on 2/5.  Though I settled on Edwards after Kucinich dropped out, Edwards was always my only hope among the top tier.  Clinton and Obama don't really inspire me much.  I wanted someone with real liberal heft, not just the faux liberal mantle as bestowed by Rush Limbaugh and his ilk.

Since I am in MA, I'll seriously consider voting 3rd party or writing in someone for the general.  I know protest votes don't really have any effect, but since I am not in a swing state I'll have the luxury of voting my conscience.

[ Parent ]
Seriously consider away... (0.00 / 0)
...but let me urge you think of this before you do: this is likely to be a very contentious election, and low turnout or 3rd-party votes in safely Democratic states might well have an impact on the national popular vote counts.
[ Parent ]
And that matters because? (4.00 / 1)
I will vote for the Democrat if the polling here in MA shows a close election, but the total popular vote means nothing as was proven in 2000. I will vote for the Democrats downticket. 

I am tired of hearing about 'mandate of popular will'.  If Clinton or Obama had a decent platform I would already be supporting them.  Why should I feel obligated to give them my vote, especially when I know what the outcome will be in my state and when I don't trust them to do what's best for our country, just to make their popular vote total look better?

[ Parent ]
and you don't see ... (0.00 / 0)
... that both candidates have been adopting major parts of Edwards' platform, and talking more like Edwards all the time, and either will probably have Edwards in their administration?

I was an Edwards supporter too; saw him in person, made several financial contributions.  But I have no intention of being sour or bitter.

For me, Obama is clearly preferable to Clinton, despite his flaws, and Clinton is clearly preferable to any of the insane wackos with a shot at the Republican nomination.  I suspect that you'll see that too, once you calm down a bit.

And even Edwards was far from perfect: he had a DLC voting record (which he has apologized for repeatedly), and his health reform plan, while better than Clinton's or Obama's, still falls short of what we really need (single payer, cut the insurance companies out completely).  The only straight, no-bullshit progressive in the race was Kucinich.  But I want to back the best candidate who can win.

[ Parent ]
As an Edwards supporter from NY State ... (0.00 / 0)
I'll get behind Obama.

Hillary promised us New Yorkers 6 years, back in '06. 

And she reminds me of another presidential relative we all assumed would get the nomination one day: Ted Kennedy.  He's done more as Senator-for-Life from Massachusetts than he could have as President. 

I'd say the same applies to Ms. Clinton.  America with a President Obama and a Senator Clinton would be a better situation than an America with a President (H) Clinton and a Senator Obama.

Obama GOTV (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]
As an Edwards supporter (4.00 / 1)
I'll vote Edwards on 2/12, not to "send a message" but to have one opportunity to cast my vote for my first choice.  After that, I'm going with Hillary. 
Two WI Votes (0.00 / 0)
Our Edwards votes will be going to Obama, without hesitation. The only way I would not vote for Barack is if it is clear he will be winning our state on 2/19 and then I'll vote for John out of principal.
Won't most Edwards supporters go w/ whom he endorses? (0.00 / 0)
I know I will (even if he goes w/ "the Clintons"), on the assumption that he's negotiated for himself a position where he can be effective and policy positions that his endorsee is committed to backing.
Yes and no (0.00 / 0)
Most hardcore Edwards supporters will probably do just that. But most Edwards voters? Different story entirely; I imagine they've been voting for Edwards for a variety of reasons, some of which are 'demographic', and that those reasons will drive their decision about where to go next, rather than suggestions from Edwards himself.
[ Parent ]
Not necessarily. (0.00 / 0)
Some already have a second choice and won't be swayed.

Some others probably like both other candidates enough that an endorsement would swing them.

Is anyone else skeptical enough of both of the others that an endorsement would get a second look at whomever he endorses, but it might or might not swing my vote.

At least this time around there's isn't someone in the race who I couldn't vote for in the general (like Lieberman in '04 was.)

[ Parent ]
whoever earns it (0.00 / 0)
I'll go whoever looks like they are keeping their pledge to Edwards.  I better hear these two talking about poverty.  And health care needs to be universal.

the fact that he announced today (0.00 / 0)
makes me think he'll endorse Obama - or at least is leaning that way.

Clinton would have gotten some decent press today with her win in Florida but that sure the hell ain't going today's top story now is it.

What has John McCain done for veterans?

don't know where I'd go ... (4.00 / 2)
Clinton seems too corporate for me and Obama seems to think the Republicans will all of sudden sit down and play nice.

With Edwards, I had a candidate who wasn't in the corporations' pockets and wasn't under any illusion about the necessity of fighting for the people.

Luckily, all I have to do is wait to see who becomes the nominee because I already voted for Edwards in FL.

I can't stand either of them (4.00 / 4)
Until one of the candidates steps up, stops acting like a rock-star, or a baby, or whatever, and starts talking about issues in concrete terms, I'm keeping my support behind Edwards.

I predict that this won't happen anytime soon.

Where Are Edwards Supporters Likely To Go? | 30 comments
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