Can Romney Extend The Republican Nomination?

by: Chris Bowers

Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 13:56


Surprisingly, the answer appears to be yes:

Maine caucuses, 64% reporting
Romney: 52%
McCain: 21%
Paul: 19%
Huckabee: 6%

Now, McCain is going to clean up on Super Tuesday. However, if, in addition to expected wins in Utah and Massachusetts, Romney can continue do this well in the six caucus / convention states on February 5th (Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia), and if Huckabee can win a couple of southern states outside of Arkansas, then McCain will still be a few hundred delegates from the nomination  From that point, outside of Beltway Tuesday on February 12th (119 delegates), and Super Tuesday Two on March 4th (265 delegates) there are not many primary delegates to be had in the Republican campaign until April 22nd. So, it is entirely conceivable that, if a few states break their way on Tuesday, and if they decided to stay in the campaign and make stands on either Beltway Tuesday or Super Tuesday Two, then Romney and Huckabee could force the Republican nomination to drag on until at least April.

It is not the most likely scenario, but it also isn't impossible. While I fully expect McCain to win the Republican nomination no matter what, a long, bitter Republican campaign could weaken him for the general. And that works for me.

Update: In the comments, IVR Polls notes that  the outcome of the key Republican primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday will largely depend on turnout:

Compare Gallup's loose screen with Rasmussen's tight screen and you either get a McCain blowout or a tied race. As my Texas poll gave almost identical numbers to Rasmussen's national poll, I tend to think Rasmussen might be on to something.

In other words, low Republican turnout could mean that Romney and Huckabee win more states than expected or predicted by current polling, thus forcing the Republican nomination past February 5th.  

Chris Bowers :: Can Romney Extend The Republican Nomination?

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If nothing else (0.00 / 0)
McCain is pretty damn broke and making him spend more money to put the nomination on ice is money he's not spending retiring debts to take on the Democrat.

Also, it increases the chances of him saying more incredibly stupid things like staying in Iraq for 100 years.


Depends on turnout (4.00 / 1)
If the independents accept the premise that the race is over and either stay home or turn out for Obama, the reliable GOP primary voters could keep Romney in the game.

Compare Gallup's loose screen with Rasmussen's tight screen and you either get a McCain blowout or a tied race. As my Texas poll gave almost identical numbers to Rasmussen's national poll, I tend to think Rasmussen might be on to something.


And all the news reports declaring the rep nomination (0.00 / 0)
a finished deal could end up suppressing turnout, or at least causing people in open primary states to vote in the 'relevant' primary.  


[ Parent ]
MA for Romney? (0.00 / 0)
I don't know what the polls say, but I live in MA-10 and have received 5 Romney robo-calls over the last few days, including one fronted by ex-governor Bill Weld. Wonder how much that endorsement cost Mittens?  Ayway, doesn't sound to me like someone who thinks he has this state in the bag would be putting that kind of effort forth.

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