Mr. Obama, of Illinois, has run advertisements in 21 of the 22 states that will hold Democratic primaries or caucuses. Mrs. Clinton, of New York, has run advertisements in 16 of those states. His campaign has aimed advertisements on different issues at particular cities in an effort to tailor his message to the concerns of voters.(...)
Mr. Obama has spent $10.9 million on advertisements in the states voting on Tuesday; his first expenditure was Jan. 12, according to officials from both campaigns. Mrs. Clinton has spent about $8 million, starting on Jan. 17 in California. Between them, Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton have spent at least $1.3 million a day for the last week on television advertising in the states voting on Tuesday, said Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political advertising.
Most of this money has been expended in just two weeks. By comparison, all the presidential candidates spent a total of $43 million in Iowa and $32 million in New Hampshire, according to a report from the Wisconsin Advertising Project. In those states, advertising ran for months before the votes.
Illinois, Mr. Obama's home state, is the one place where neither Mrs. Clinton nor Mr. Obama is advertising. Of the five other states where Mrs. Clinton is not advertising, four - Alaska, Colorado, Kansas and Minnesota - have caucuses, the kind of competition that aides to both candidates believe gives an edge to Mr. Obama. In the fifth state, Georgia, Mr. Obama is looking to do well, in part because of the state's large black population.
Mr. Romney and Mr. McCain began their television effort on Friday; there were no specific figures available on their spending, though it appeared to be about $2 million for Mr. Romney and about $1 million for Mr. McCain. Mr. Romney, again reaching into his own pockets, bought television advertisements across California and on national cable television, a venue rarely used in a primary campaign.
This is interesting on several levels:
First, I'm pretty sure that Clinton and Obama are combining for a larger ad buy than Kerry had heading into the final week of the 2004 campaign. Then again, I suppose that isn't too remarkable, since Super Tuesday presents a larger playing field than the swing states did in 2004, and because they are two campaigns instead of one.
Second, it indicates that Clinton has ceded both Kansas and Georgia to Obama, since she is neither campaigning nor advertising in either state, while Obama is campaigning and advertising in both. So, along with Illinois, that makes for three safe Obama states, instead of just two.
Third, Obama is clearly targeting a delegate strategy at this point, as indicated by his advertising even in places like Arkansas, New York, and Oklahoma. The only rationale I can think of for advertising in states that he is certain to lose is to pick up as many delegates in those states as possible. This is further emphasized by an earlier passage in the article that indicates Obama is targeting select media markets in many states, clearly trying to win a congressional district here and there even if he does not win the entire state.
Fourth, Romney apparently has decided to give it a go in California, seemingly hoping that he can win a couple dozen congressional districts there and call it a draw of sorts.
Firth, it is interesting that both Romney and Obama are now heavily counting on low turnout caucuses to wage a delegate count strategy, and deny their opponents a quick coronation. An analogy to socioeconomic classes is useful in understanding this. In the delegate system, super delegate endorsements are akin to aristocrats, caucuses are like the bourgeois, and primaries are like the working class. In the Democratic Party, Obama has a strong edge among our "bourgeois," high-information voters and grassroots activists, while Clinton has an edge among the aristocracy and the working class. Romney seems to have an edge among the aristocracy and the bourgeois but, at least according to the Gallup poll, is getting crushed among the rank and file working class of the Republican Party.
Polling, itineraries, and now advertising: the Super Tuesday picture is starting to come into focus. Last year, I had suspected that Super Tuesday would be nearly impossible to follow, but enough information seems to be trickling in that has made it much easier than expected.
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