Zogby Polls Favorable To Obama in CA, MO and NJ

by: Chris Bowers

Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 19:57


Zgoby's tracking polls show much better news for Obama in key Super Tuesday states than other polls so far:

Obama, an Illinois senator who would be the first black U.S. president, has a comfortable 20-point lead in Georgia fueled by a more than 3-to-1 advantage over Clinton among black voters.(...)

In California, the poll found Obama led Clinton by 45 percent to 41 percent, with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. Clinton held statistically insignificant 1-point leads on Obama in New Jersey and Missouri, well within the margin of error of 3.4 percentage points in both surveys.

Zogby has put up some odd results before. Also, as I said, other polls in California, Missouri and New Jersey are much more favorable to Clinton. Still, these polls suggest that the possibility of a strong Super Tuesday for Obama is real.

Update: Yes, Zogby's tracking polls haven't been too bad, this year. But I don't know, sic transit gloria or somethin'. Also, the final Field Poll shows Clinton ahead by 2% in California. Looks like a dead heat in the Golden State. Clinton campaigned there Saturday to a crowd of 10,000 in San Jose--I wonder if the Obama campaign will turn around and make a surprise visit?

Chris Bowers :: Zogby Polls Favorable To Obama in CA, MO and NJ

Tags: , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
Zogby Polls Favorable To Obama in CA, MO and NJ | 21 comments
Another California poll has it at 36-34 (0.00 / 0)
advantage Clinton, with 18 undecided.
See here: http://www.calitics.com/showDi...

Looks like California might be the battleground state February 5th.

ZOGBY TRACKING POLLS (0.00 / 0)
His tracking polls have been right on this primary season;

He called it right on IA, NV, SC AND Fl FOR THE REPUBLICANS

His final poll for NV was 6 pts for Clinton and 15 pts for Obama IN SC.

His final poll in Fl HAD mCcAIN AHEAD 35 TO 31 WITH THE FINAL RESULTS BEING 36-31

Many of his other poll's have been screwy, but his tracking poll's have been right on.

He will release poll's for monday and tuesday.

[ Parent ]
Obama's trump card is turnout (4.00 / 1)
It's possible that Zogby is getting turnout right. Has anybody dug down to find out? It'd be worth doing.

Obama's trump card is turnout.

[ Parent ]
New Field Poll (0.00 / 0)
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

McCain up 8 in CA, Clinton's lead down to 2.

Field Poll (0.00 / 0)
In Oct. the Field poll showed a 25 pt Clinton lead. 18 PT UN-DECIDED.

Clearly the momentum is with Obama.

Chris, I believe Obama WILL HEAD TO CA and Clinton is spending a lot of time their and I bet her internal poll's are showing this tightness in the race

[ Parent ]
Why go to California? (0.00 / 0)
Granted there would be some psychological advantage to winnning California, but I can't see that being important enough to get Obama to return to the state. I think his time would be better spent in NYC cutting into Clinton's margin in New York. If the Field Poll (with its long-standing reputation as being the best of all polls) shows Obama at two points down and 18% undecided then I think it likely that he will win California as it is. He has usually outperformed his poll results and I think he has the momentum. And if he loses California slightly it will still mean a tie in delegates won.  If Obama wins NYC that will be a psychological victory as great as winning California would be, and that too would be rich in delegates. One thing I am sure of, however, is that Obama, who has the best sense of timing and tactics I have ever seen in a candidate, will make the best use of the time he has left.  
[ Parent ]
well, he's got sunday (0.00 / 0)
covered with the Oprah/Michelle/Caroline tour. But I could see him jetting corss-country Monday after his Meadowlands rally for one more surprise rally in CA. Maybe in Golden Gate Park, as the Dead play downtown at the Warfield.
NY Times Exelon story (0.00 / 0)
I think this NY times story should have an impact on undecideds and maybe even change a few minds. I think it is enormously telling and epitomizes all the concerns that have been raised about Obama

He backs down. He compromises. He doesn't perservere. He has good intentions but he bows before the pressure of donors and local industy lobbying and just plain old ordinary Republican intransigence. The goal posts get moved. The end result is so watered down that temporary voluntary compliance is now something to be proud of.

Forget the fact that he boasted in Iowa that he actually passed this bill when it didn't pass at all.

And it brings up a question that journalists in the MSM are starting to ask (see Jake Tapper's piece on a 2001 video of Obama saying Rumsfeld and othe rBush nominees are mainstream)  Tapper's question was and other MSM jurnalists will follow  ....how much more is there? ....that isn't known about him?....Comments, video, papers, quotes, actions or inaction on legislation.?

Tapper muses that maybe it's true he hasn't been vetted.  

But for me this is exactly how I thought he would have behaved and how I expect him to behave in the future.

I don't see in this story or his persona a man who knows his way around a bar fight. (the Bar Fight Primary standard of course)    

"Incrementalism isn't a different path to the same place, it could be a different path to a different place"
Stoller

Bill (4.00 / 2)
He backs down. He compromises. He doesn't perservere.

That describes Bill Clinton's record perfectly. I'd expect the same from Hillary.

I don't know how Obama would govern. I think I know how Hillary would govern. So my vote would go to Obama as of today.

[ Parent ]
Clinton (4.00 / 1)

That describes Bill Clinton's record perfectly.

Like when Gingrich shut down the govt because Clinton vetoed his spending cuts?

Like when Gingerich and Delay tried to hound Clinton out of office with the threat of impeachment?

Like when the Republicans kept trying to pass big tax cuts for the rich, and Clinton kept vetoing them?

How old are you, 18?

[ Parent ]
FYI (0.00 / 0)
Hillary is NOT Bill, and we aren't living in the 1990s.  I don't think you can predict that she will behave the same as he would just because they are married.  After all, we women are capable of thinking for ourselves.  
[ Parent ]
Yes of course (0.00 / 0)
Hillary's ability to think for herself has been on display since the runup to the Iraq War.

I'll give her the benefit of the doubt that she came up with her various pro-Iraq War dodges and excuses entirely on her own.

[ Parent ]
Hillary Clinton keeps at it, example below (4.00 / 2)
Her work on Emergency contraception is a perfect counterpoint to Obama.

For 3 years she persevered.  She put a hold on the FDA commissioner until the FDA approved Emergency Contraception.

This story is like a lab experiment between the two of them.

She perseveres, doesn't compromise.  She succeeds.  He doesn't.

"Incrementalism isn't a different path to the same place, it could be a different path to a different place"
Stoller

[ Parent ]
If you read the article carefully... (0.00 / 0)
You'll see that Hillary Clinton was actually a co-sponsor on the Exelon bill you're criticizing Obama over, so she certainly didn't persevere in this situation.

I don't think Obama should be fully to blame for a bill Jim Inhoffe all but killed in comittee.  Neither should Clinton.  They sponsored the bill together, Inhoffe screwed them both.

[ Parent ]
that's a sexist comment (0.00 / 0)
she is not the appendage of her husband

"Incrementalism isn't a different path to the same place, it could be a different path to a different place"
Stoller
[ Parent ]
Obama in St. Louis tonight, 20,000 in attendance (0.00 / 0)
Nice little event here at the Edward Jones Dome Convention Center in downtown St. Louis tonight, 20,000 people showed up to see Barack Obama.  Security was tight, Secret Service everywhere, one of them grabbed me as I tried to climb on a light stand, nice clean-cut young man.  

Once again, the press was kept largely at bay, and away from the stage altogether.  Still photographers like myself were relegated to small sections of the two large press platforms, which were dominated by video cameras, I counted at least 25.  TV is getting very important now.

I think I got some good pictures, though I haven't yet had a chance to look at them. I got within 5 feet of Obama as he was leaving the event, so check my photo blog in a day or two for the pics. I'm going to need at least 24 hours to recuperate, because it was pretty hectic, and very exciting.  Pretty much the same message as in October, just a much much larger audience this time.  I can attest, the folks in St. Louis love Barack Obama.

BFP (Blogger Free Press)

California, with Idaho and Minnesota Asides (0.00 / 0)
Unlike Obama's visible campaign, I haven't seen much Clinton presense in the Bay Area.  Maybe I haven't been looking in the right places.  If Obama's GOTV can create a large turnout, who knows?  But remember, California has a lot of early voters.  I personally know people who voted for Edwards and Clinton weeks ago.  Whatever happens, it looks like the delegate count in California will be fairly close.

From what little I can glean from Idaho Clinton is invisible.  Obama has the endorsement of Cecil Andrus and drew a crowd of 10K in Boise.  Voters like politicians who at least show up in their state.  Obama probably wins this one.

I'd be surprised if Obama didn't win Minnesota.  They like underdog challengers (Wellstone, Ventura).  Since Edwards has dropped out, Obestar has endorsed Obama.  And, Obama sold out the Target Center (20K) in 24 hours.  Clinton has the old-line DFLers, but this is starting to feel a lot like Iowa.

Is Clinton really in trouble? (4.00 / 1)
I've been hearing rumors of the Clinton campaign completly giving up on about all caucus state so they could concentrate on stopping Obama's momentum in the big states.

If that is true , this is about 4-5 states they are handing to Obama , so shouldn't Obama pull down ads that are running in KS , CO , ND just to save money and dump them somewhere else?

How about start running ads in WI which i think will be a tough state for him?

I'm also hearing the Clinton is running out of cash and this is why they've gaving up on those caucus state.

The validity of the poll (0.00 / 0)
If their internal poll's match Zogby's we will be able to tell by their traveling schedules for Sunday and Monday. That is, will their be changes. Will Clinton head to NJ and will Obama HEAD BACK TO CA?
[ Parent ]
He's got plenty of money, I think. (0.00 / 0)
It's his time that is the limited resource.  His physical presence I mean.

His priorities will be visible by where he goes.

There's no harm in running up the margins in these states.  If Obama wins his five best in a total blowout, and Clinton wins her five best narrowly, that's great for the press narrative.  It may not mean much in terms of delegates, but that's ok in this instance.

[ Parent ]
Obama back to Cali? (0.00 / 0)
I doubt Obama will make another visit to California ... unless it's on the day of the primary.

He has a mega rally in Boston Monday night with Kennedy, Kerry, and Patrick.

Zogby Polls Favorable To Obama in CA, MO and NJ | 21 comments
USER MENU

Open Left Campaigns

SEARCH

   

Advanced Search

QUICK HITS
STATE BLOGS

Home | RSS/XML Feed | Register | Contact

  © OpenLeft 2007-2010, Powered by SoapBlox

Powered by: SoapBlox