Given results in New Hampshire and South Carolina, many people have grown wisely skeptical of primary polling results this year. They would be wise to do so, since primaries are elections with highly variable turnouts, and since there are such widely varying candidate preferences among different Democratic demographics this season. If a poll either over samples or under samples a particular demographic, it can end up being quite far away from the reality on the ground. Further, given that a large percentage of the primary electorate just tuned in over the last few weeks, support remains soft and voters can change direction in a hurry. In other words, view all primary polls with caution, especially when they so wildly contradict each other as they current do in California.
Right now, there are recently conducted California polls showing results anywhere from Clinton ahead by nine, to Obama ahead by six. The six-poll average in California shows Clinton ahead 41.8% to 40.0%, and probably further ahead than that in early voting (although many polls include early voters in their totals). This messy situation is replicated on the Republican side, with McCain now only leading Romney by a margin of 35.5% to 33.0% in the six-poll average.
For either Obama or Romney to win California would be stunning, but right now both seem possible. While I feel as though the numbers require a suspension of disbelief, check out the Republican and Democratic polling averages for yourself, along with the new Zogby poll. In fact, Obama's position actually improves if you remove the California poll from ARG. Numbers like these don't make much sense, but I suspect we are in for a long tonight on Tuesday.
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