Obama's Edge

by: Matt Stoller

Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 05:59


For some time, I've thought that Hillary Clinton had a slight edge in the race, mostly because of her quiet and dominant edge among suburban women.  It showed up in New Hampshire, and it's pretty clear that the media tends to cut out the concerns of suburban women in favor of other types stories.  For instance, it's true that young people are turning out in historic numbers, but it's also true that suburban women are turning out in historic numbers, or else Clinton wouldn't be competitive.  I never bought the nasty narrative about Bill Clinton, because Democrats like Bill Clinton.  

But now, with polling everywhere from New Jersey to California showing an overall Obama surge, I'm going to guess that other trends are going to overtake Clinton's advantage among suburban women.  The first is field; Obama's campaign does have a better field operation than Clinton, and if South Carolina is any guide, this is going to have the effect of moving undecided voters to Obama.  Clinton has the more establishment types in many states, including New Jersey, but the new progressive silent revolution types who have taken over lots of state parties by outworking the older operatives are with Obama.  The second is more significant, and that is money.  Clinton raised $10M in January, not a small amount.  But Obama raised $32M, with a good amount of that coming in over the internet from small dollar donors.  He can and will continue to raise money from these people.

If Obama does well on Super Tuesday, he will set himself up for a delegate lead later in the month because of a slew of favorable states, and he will end up drying up Clinton's money.  Clinton donors gave because they saw her as inevitable, but if she doesn't take the majority of delegates on Tuesday it's going to be tough to close what is clearly a widening money gap.  So this is now a make-or-break for her, while that is not the case for Obama.  Obama's donors believe in him, they are investing in a movement whether he wins on Tuesday or not, so he can go on and compete regardless.  And besides that, he just has a lot more money now than Clinton.

That's my sense of where things are.  I have strong reservations about Obama, as you know, but I do think he's taken the lead in the race.

Matt Stoller :: Obama's Edge

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Obama's Edge | 29 comments
Same Here (0.00 / 0)
Obama just can't lose on Super Tuesday, regardless of delegate count.  Seriously, there's not even a good chance of her holding onto goddamn California.

I see her closing down shop soon after tomorrow.  Obama's just got way too much going for him (press, Kennedy/Dem establishment, money, frenzied supporters, organization, etc.).  I suspect those poll numbers are too low for him.

Obamamentum (0.00 / 0)
Looks like it is definitely in his direction. There is no question.  If the primary was a week from tomorrow, it would even be more pronounced.  With the way the system is set up, there will not be a nominee until April or later.  I agree 100% with Matt's comments.  He has the money, endorsement and edge and the polls are trending his way.  

I think the question will be how much of the early vote in CA goes Hillary's way, and is Obama's surge enough to offset that?  The difference is either, winning California outright ( which really would set this thing on its ear) or close enough to keep the race close (which I think is the more likelier scenario.  Remember, Obama led in Florida on election day but Hillary won the early voting by huge margins...however that was with no active campaign (that sucks, I am from FL) and without what we are seeing in the polls/endorsements.

Intresting post (0.00 / 0)
I am not as sure as you are that most Democrats still like Bill Clinton.

I would say that 99.5% of the people I have talked to in the last few weeks have either changed their opinions or have admitted to not ever really liking him, albeit they did great when he was Prez.

Bill Hasn't Hurt Hillary (0.00 / 0)
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.c...

Does Bill Clinton's involvement in Hillary Clinton's Presidential campaign make you more likely to support Hillary Clinton, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference to you?

More likely 18%

Less likely 12%

No difference 70%

If Hillary Clinton becomes President, do you think Bill Clinton will have too much influence, to little influence, or about the right amount of influence on the decisions Hillary Clinton makes as President?

Too much influence 22%

Too little influence 6%

About the right amount 65%


[ Parent ]
Some suburban women like Obama (0.00 / 0)
Look at Maria Shriver's endorsement of Obama in LA at an Oprah-headlined rally.  This is the wife of the Governor of CA, who himself endorsed McCain.  Sure, she's a Kennedy via her mother, but still.

And don't underestimate the appeal of Oprah.  Women don't follow her blindly, but she purveys a real sense of self-confidence that really helps a great many women find their own self-confidence.  She is all about hope and positive thinking.  Her endorsement of Obama, like Ted Kennedy's, is a seal of approval for some wavering people.  Oprah, Caroline Kennedy, Maria Shriver and Michelle Obama send a strong message to women that the women's movement is really about being able to chose for yourself and not having to vote for a woman just because she is a woman (or because you are a woman, in Robin Morgan's formulation that is wafting across the internet).

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

[ Parent ]
We are not voting for because she is a woman. (0.00 / 0)
I think you misinterpreted the message.  We are voting for her because she has been strong on our issues for many years.  She has been strong on women's rights, on family issues and on education.  
 She has been a leader not a follower on these issues and they are what are near and dear to our hearts.  We also have the knowledge based on experience that she is quite capable to get things done.
 Ron Paul can raise a lot of money in one day but that does not mean he should be the President
.
[ Parent ]
Obama is exciting and fun (0.00 / 0)
I've usually preferred Clinton, but it's really hard not to get sucked up into the vortex. My favorite barometer of how the election is going?

Obama Winning Online Gambling and Online Swag Contests

Who knows really (4.00 / 1)
This thing has changed on a dime so many times now.  We'll see tomorrow.  

The one thing that is clear, is if you have a clear candidate, don't slack, let others know, and go vote!

Democrats like Bill Clinton (0.00 / 0)
There was an interesting statistic that come out in NH, in the exit polls. They asked people, "If Bill Clinton were also running in this primary, would you have voted for him instead." 14% of Edwards voters said yes and 24% of Obama supporters said yes. Meanwhile a whopping 58% of Hillary voters said they would have voted for Bill instead!

source:http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NHDEM

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

Harold Washington disappointed me (0.00 / 0)
after he won when he didn't work to consolidate his movement into an organization or an organized movement. It became achingly clear when he died prematurely and we yielded power back to the machine. I can see the same thing happening with Obama and there's a chance that had Dean won he wouldn't have become a force behind the DFA organization. Now that said, times are very different. DFA might have gotten created even with Dean as president.

So the question becomes, win or lose, what happens to/with Obama's "movement"? And more and more it's looking like what happens if he wins? Indeed could a loss be better for progressives than a win? I don't really want to go down that road, just saying that we may have more work cut out for ourselves with an Obama win than with a loss.

Jeff Wegerson

Where will he go? (0.00 / 0)
I just have to say that the Obama career seems to be all about getting to the next step.  He has been very cautious in his career to support the right people (Joe Lieberman and Mayor Daley) and not to make waves.
 What happens if he looses?  Will he be satisfied to be the junior Senator from IL with no clear path to the Presidency for possibly years?  If so will he be a Senator willing to take the lead on issues like Durbin?
Very few candidates are like Dean that can create momentum for change after the election.  I am not sure Obama is one of them.  
 As an older suburban woman I am still in the Clinton camp and most of my friends are as well.
 
[ Parent ]
He can run for Governor of Illinois (4.00 / 1)
In 2010, can't he?  He could demonstrate his executive ability and his "new politics."  He'd then have a strong base for another run.

The Dem party's sttrongest candidates have often been Governors.  He could take that route, although Eliot Spitzer is in line ahead of him.  I think it's better than staying in DC.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

[ Parent ]
Goes without saying. (0.00 / 0)
Of course there will be a letdowm. There always is. Happened with JFK, would have happened with RFK, and I suppose if anybody was ever excited about Bush it happened with him too. Contrary to the CW, politicians almost never really lead. At best they open space for the real idea makers to work in.

Seems like you're suggesting that if Hillary gets the nod there will be no letdown because there were no expectations. That's a little harsh even for me.

[ Parent ]
I suppose that is harsh (0.00 / 0)
I had not thought about it.  What I expect from Clinton is that she will be an effective multi-tasking manager that will get the country going in a better direction if not on the right track.  In fact she will be the LBJ to the Obama JFK.  I am old enough to have lived through both those presidencies.
 I loved JFK, he inspired me even as a young child and his was the first death to actually touch me personally.  I still refer to his vision as an inspiration.
 If you disregard the war in Viet Nam though it was LBJ that really moved things forward in any number of ways.  I have no expectations that there will be much movement on the war with either Obama or Clinton so I am now voting on domestic issues only.
I guess I want to skip the inspiration point and get right down to let's get some things fixed. I just don't think we have four more years to play around.
 
[ Parent ]
I agree on LBJ (4.00 / 2)
and regard him as highly underrated. I don't see Hillary as his analog, however. To me, the last thing we need is a multi-tasking manager. We need somebody who can break the old cliches and prepare the ground for a radically new way of politics and government. Hillary probably would manage to keep the old jalopy moving for a while longer, but I want a new plugin hybrid or nothing. I don't think we have the luxury of waiting another 8 years for deep change.

Obama is something of a blank slate. He might be a total bust or he might be the new JFK/LBJ. The potential might be there.  I think Hillary is, as you say, a multi-tasking manager. To me, this country is in trouble too deep to fix by massaging the status quo. I'm going with hope for once -- and believe me, that's about as out of character for me these days as anything I can think of.

[ Parent ]
I understand where you're coming from (I think) (0.00 / 0)
... but not counting Vietnam is a lot like not counting the Iraq war. Both are defining events for a generation, the war debt may lead to the same stagflation that helped to turn the public against LBJ's great society programs in the 1980s.

The cost of this war in terms of lives, lost opportunities and treasure is simply enormous.  

[ Parent ]
I wish we did not have to take Iraq out of the equation (0.00 / 0)
I think we can not have transformational change without getting out of Iraq for the very reason that the programs ran into trouble under LBJ and funding.
 "Getting out as carefully as we carelessly got in" as well as some other things tells me Obama is in no hurry to end Iraq.
 Not that I believe Clinton is either so I know we will not have transformational change and I would prefer we have at least competent going forward.
 
[ Parent ]
Complete Reversal (0.00 / 0)
Today I had an interesting thought.  Right now, the Conventional wisdom is that McCain is getting ready to knock Romney out of the race, but the Democratic race is getting ready to continue for another month.

With the Obama and Romney Surges, however, would it not be interesting if Obama actually dealt the devastating blow to Clinton, while Romney beats expectations and lives to continue fighting McCain?

I say interesting just because I like seeing conventional wisdom being proved wrong(as it so often is)

Our Dime Understanding the U.S. Budget

Money (0.00 / 0)
That's a very astute insight about Obama's money coming from people who believe in him and much of Clinton's from people who thought they were going with the winner. Not quite that cut and dried, of course, but the prediction of a growing money gap if Obama does well tomorrow seems solid.

I disagree, though, about Bill. I think he forced voters to peer behind the curtain of 90s fantasy they'd put up and remember the ugliness and embarrassment that accompanied the good economy. Democrats may like Bill, but that doesn't mean they want to see the sequel. People like Britney Spears, too, apparently, but I don't see any movement to draft her to run for president. I think the ick factor that Bill dragged onstage did much to torpedo Hillary, just as the same factor gave us Bush in the first place.

Still, I have absolutely no faith in the polls, so won't be talking about President Obama for quite some time.

Clinton's Money (0.00 / 0)
I'm hoping someone can provide me with a link to a source that Clinton raised 10 million in January.  I've been looking to confirm that and I can't find anything.

Thanks!

Obama's Edge | 29 comments
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