Dancing with the devil(s)! Yuck! (0.00 / 0)

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by: sb @ Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 16:07:12 PM UTC

Convention rules (0.00 / 0)

What are the convention rules?

Who is going to be better at "arm twisting"? Or is it just going to be as simple as who has more delegates in which case FL & MI will play a big role?

Of course all of this premature - let's see how Super Tue plays out and what the media spin is!  

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by: ab initio @ Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 16:13:09 PM UTC

Fundamentals of polls still favor Hilary (0.00 / 0)

It's important to remember that, and not get swept up in cherry-picking Obama favoring polls.  

As an Obama supporter, I hope for the best, but I'm hoping, at the best, for Hilary ahead only 100 delegates.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Hil's delegate count is over 150 ahead.  (As Chris has said, if Hil is 200 ahead, makes the rest a hard slog.)

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by: JC @ Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 16:13:10 PM UTC

What this means (0.00 / 0)

Hillery is not not leading in the recent polls and not winning, or at least Wolfson and Penn don't think she is, or will.

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by: mjshep @ Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 16:17:18 PM UTC

Hope you are right, and the undecideds shift towards Obama, but the numbers stand (0.00 / 0)

As they are in the polling now.

From RCP averages:

                                       %        %
California 02/05 441 42.0 41.8
New York 02/05 281 C 53.5 36.3
Illinois 02/05 185 23.3 55.3
New Jersey 02/05 127 47.1 40.1
Massachusetts 02/05 121 44.8 31.2
Georgia        02/05 103 34.4    49.4
Minnesota 02/05 88
Missouri 02/05 88 45.7 44.0
Tennessee 02/05 85 46.7 33.7
Arizona        02/05 67 C 41.7 35.7
Alabama        02/05 60 43.3 43.0
Connecticut 02/05 60 C 42.3 38.3

YES, things have tightened up, but Clinton still is ahead in most states.

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by: JC @ Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 16:29:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A couple of Survey USA polls in (0.00 / 0)

California and Missouri have recently been released and they significantly strengthen Hillary's position (double digit leads).  No polls have been precise this year and ARG's have been so awful that they need to be eliminated from discussion, but Survey USA's numbers weren't all that bad in Florida and South Carolina.  Not exact, but in the ballpark.  These new polls appear to push the undecideds to declare for one candidate or the other and - if they're to be believed - the undecideds seem to be breaking for Hillary.  

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by: historyrocks @ Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 16:24:56 PM UTC

SUSA POLL'S (0.00 / 0)

I would need to see other poll's confirming these poll's before I will believe them.

I tend to follow Zogby's tracking poll's for I have found them quite accurate this cycle.

If their poll's tomorrow show Hillary ahead in CA and MO then I will believe them.

Today for CA:
OBAMA 46
Clinton 40

MO:
Obama 47
Clinton 42

Their final poll will be released tomorrow morning.

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by: BDM @ Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 18:39:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In other words (0.00 / 0)

In other words, they're expecting to underperform tomorrow and are worried that the contest won't go on to the convention.

That's what I love to hear ;-)

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by: Matt H @ Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 16:28:14 PM UTC

nobody (0.00 / 0)

Nobody wants this to go to the convention. That would be a disaster. McCain is going to be effectively crowned GOP nominee tomorrow, which would mean a head start of nearly seven months.

I'm voting for Clinton tomorrow, but I'm pretty ambivalent, and would be equally happy with either candidate. I want the story to change sooner rather than later so we can get to the Herculean task of taking down McCain in spite of universal adoration for him in the media. To be blunt, it's Obama's steady climb that has ensured a long, drawn-out primary fight. Someone had damn well better concede by March 4 at the latest.

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by: Till @ Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 17:32:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not what I meant (0.00 / 0)

They're worried, IMO, that they're going to underperform so badly that they'll get beat before the convention. Those loud banging noises in the background are the sounds of the Clinton team moving the goalposts.

Don't worry: either the various polls showing HRC still significantly ahead will turn out to be true and Hillary will gain enough treasure to make and Obama comeback improbable, thereby fortifying her 3/5 firewall or the other polls will be right, giving this Obama snowball just the push it needs to start rolling downhill.

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by: Matt H @ Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 19:33:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Perhaps you could ask Mr Penn If He's Planning To Bust Any More Unions (0.00 / 0)

before he enters the WhiteHouse?

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by: konopelli @ Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 17:30:19 PM UTC

Electability (0.00 / 0)

Until the convention...I was reading Penn's missive on Clinton's website. If Obama's electability does not include Swift Boating, the Bradley Effect or the Hillary Effect (women don't say they'll vote for Hillary out of fear of harsh attacks), continuing on this road of blind faith for Obama is very dangerous. In my humble opinion. Fighting until the convention will waste time while Democrats should be getting out the women and Latino vote for Clinton.


Banned for posting five straight diaries.

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by: donna darko @ Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 21:18:03 PM UTC

Electability (0.00 / 0)

Until the convention...I was reading Penn's missive on Clinton's website. If Obama's electability does not include Swift Boating, the Bradley Effect or the Hillary Effect (women don't say they'll vote for Hillary out of fear of harsh attacks), continuing on this road of blind faith for Obama is very dangerous. In my humble opinion. Fighting until the convention will waste time while Democrats should be getting out the women and Latino vote for Clinton.


Banned for posting five straight diaries.

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by: donna darko @ Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 21:18:04 PM UTC

Electability (0.00 / 0)

Until the convention...I was reading Penn's missive on Clinton's website. If Obama's electability does not include Swift Boating, the Bradley Effect or the Hillary Effect (women don't say they'll vote for Hillary out of fear of harsh attacks), continuing on this road of blind faith for Obama is very dangerous. In my humble opinion. Fighting until the convention will waste time while Democrats should be getting out the women and Latino vote for Clinton.


Banned for posting five straight diaries.

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by: donna darko @ Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 21:18:04 PM UTC

Uh (0.00 / 0)

I didn't post that three times. The website did.

Banned for posting five straight diaries.

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by: donna darko @ Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 21:20:12 PM UTC