( - promoted by Chris Bowers)
Update 12: New Super Tuesday results thread here.
Update 11: Draw looking likely: This is starting to look like the draw scenario an awful lot. I expect a very close delegate count tonight, probably with a slight Obama lead when all is said and done on Friday.
Update 10: Obama wins North Dakota: Didn't see that one coming. So much for my perfect record. I should have listened to Geekesque.
Update 9: Alabama for Obama: Not really a surprise, but the polls were pretty close. Missouri will probably go for Clinton soon, and then Kansas for Obama at 10 p.m. (Idaho won't be called until midnight). Delegates are coming in slowly, so I guess these wins are something to talk about for now...
Update 8: New Jersey for Clinton: Clinton wins New Jersey, as was more or less expected. Of course, as one commenter noted, this talk of "wins" is silly. This isn't the Electoral College. We need to know the delegates.
Update 7 Delaware for Obama: I'm batting 1.000% on my predictions so far, for what it is worth. Alabama and Connecticut should be next for Obama.
Update 6: Massachusetts, New York for Clinton: That is a big win for Clinton in Massachusetts, but let's see how the delegates break out. Pre-election polls still holding up; exit polls, not so much.
Update 5: Looks better for Clinton than exit polls suggested: Honestly, the returns are coming in now and so far they look just like the pre-election polls that forecasted a draw, and not at all like the exit polls that forecasted an Obama blowout. Early, unweighted exit polls really suck.
Update 4: Clinton wins Arkansas and Tennessee: No shock there. Can I also say how hard it is to update ten states at once by hand?
Update 3: First Exit Poll Estimates: These are bound to change, but the exit polls for the 8 p.m. states are AL: O 54-41 C; CT: O 53--46 C; DE: O 49-44 C; IL: O 68-30; MA: O 49-48 C; MO: C 47-45 O; NJ: C 49-49 O; OK: C 58--33 O; TN: C 51-40 0. Those numbers could change, but if they hold it looks like a pretty good night for Obama..
Update 2: Obama wins Illinois, Clinton wins Oklahoma: No other states have been called yet on the Democratic side. I'm going to start sifting through the exit polls...
Update 1: Obama wins Georgia To no one's surprise, Obama is projected to win Georgia's popular vote. Notably, the exit poll now projects the win to be by about 66-32, quite a bit less than the 75-26 the exit poll rumors had suggested. Now, we need to see how the delegates split, as we will in all states.
Super Tuesday Results, Democrats
| State |
Reporting |
C % |
O % |
Delegates |
Clinton |
Obama |
| Delegates |
-- |
-- |
-- |
1,681 |
112 |
57 |
| Alabama* |
66% |
41% |
56% |
52 |
0 |
10 |
| Alaska |
12:30 a.m. |
-- |
-- |
13 |
-- |
-- |
| Arizona |
10 p.m. |
-- |
-- |
56 |
-- |
-- |
| Arkansas |
22% |
72% |
23% |
35 |
7 |
0 |
| California |
11 p.m. |
-- |
-- |
370 |
-- |
-- |
| Colorado |
3% |
35% |
64% |
55 |
0 |
0 |
| Connecticut |
69% |
47% |
50% |
48 |
0 |
0 |
| Delaware |
100% |
42% |
53% |
15 |
0 |
3 |
| Georgia |
76% |
34% |
63% |
87 |
8 |
16 |
| Idaho |
22% |
24% |
75% |
18 |
0 |
0 |
| Illinois |
51% |
32% |
66% |
153 |
0 |
27 |
| Kansas |
64% |
27% |
72% |
32 |
0 |
0 |
| Massachusetts |
63% |
56% |
41% |
93 |
17 |
0 |
| Minnesota |
21% |
34% |
65% |
72 |
0 |
0 |
| Missouri |
49% |
55% |
41% |
72 |
0 |
0 |
| New Jersey |
61% |
53% |
44% |
107 |
19 |
0 |
| New Mexico |
0% |
0% |
0% |
26 |
0 |
0 |
| New York |
73% |
58% |
39% |
232 |
41 |
11 |
| North Dakota |
96%. |
37 |
61% |
13 |
0 |
0 |
| Oklahoma |
86% |
55% |
31% |
38 |
7 |
0 |
| Tennessee |
66% |
58% |
35% |
68 |
13 |
0 |
| Utah |
0% |
0% |
0% |
23 |
0 |
0 |
* = About one-third of Alabama Democrats, most of whom are African-American, will vote on Saturday, February 9th
Percentages in bold means a candidate has "won" the state in question.
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