Clinton Dominating Expectations Game

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:09


In addition to insdery processes like super delegates and the seating of the Michigan and Florida delegations (I'll have an update on that later today after doing more research), if there is one area that Clinton has a clear advantage in this campaign right now, it is the expectations game. Despite Obama winning the most states and most delegates yesterday against virtually all pre-Super Tuesday projections, the national narrative appears to be a draw, or even a slight Clinton advantage, rather than an Obama win. The only explanation for that can be Obama's expectations were raised too high. Now, Obama supporters from all over are arguing that he will probably sweep the rest of February, making it impossible for him to exceed expectations for the next two weeks.

Partially, this problem stems from Obama's need to be seen as the frontrunner. If Clinton is viewed as being tied with Obama or even slightly ahead, her super delegate advantages and Michigan / Florida arguments hold more weight. Also, partially this is due to the nature of the Obama campaign, which has developed a bit of a messianic "we can only but win" attitude that arises from its activist corps. Still, given the news that Clinton is considering self-financing in order to stay afloat after Super Tuesday, doesn't it strike anyone else as nothing short of bizarre that Obama isn't considered the frontrunner right now?

As first floated by The Page, I can confirm that, according to advisers to the campaign, Sen. Hillary Clinton is weighing a self-loan in order to finance a competitive race against Barack Obama over the next few weeks.

Clinton raised less than $20M in January and has spent most of its store of money on ads leading up to Tuesday's multi-state primary.(...)

Truth be told, Clinton cannot afford to allow Obama to rack up delegates by blowing her away in the next set of caucuses and primaries. Clinton needs to find a way to take 42% of the vote of or so in these states in order to limit Obama's delegate acquisition.

Stories like this are never, ever good for a campaign, and yet Clinton is somehow not portrayed as in trouble by the national narrative. If she were portrayed in that manner, Obama might very well be able to build up momentum for a potential knock-out blow on March 4th. However, because her campaign has done so well managing expectations, right now she remains perfectly viable for the nomination.  

Chris Bowers :: Clinton Dominating Expectations Game

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Clinton Dominating Expectations Game | 26 comments
I'm surprise at how little play the delegates are getting (0.00 / 0)
Watching the coverage last night, it seemed that no one was talking about the delegates. At 1:55am, MSNBC did their final run-through the panel and the consensus was that the night was a tie, but Clinton won the big states of California and New York. Somehow, Clinton winning states in which she was favored by 10+ points is a big break?

I expect the narrative to catch up with the facts this weekend if Obama does as well as expected. If he sweeps the Potomac Primaries next Tuesday, then he will be the unanimous frontrunner for sure.

Hmmm (0.00 / 0)
Is Clinton doing a good job at the expectations game, or does the media simply want this contest to continue (for ratings sake I guess)?

Could be both. (shrug shoulders)

http://www.ProgressFlorida.org

Certainly both (0.00 / 0)
The media wants a horse race and wants the primary to carry on as long as possible. The latest election results sell papers--the headline of "Obama wins yet again" does not.

There's a reason why there were so many negative stories about Clinton in December. They needed to knock her down so that it would be an actual race in January. Now they have to do the opposite and downplay Obama's victory so the candidates are perceived to have an equal chance at the nomination.  

[ Parent ]
Clinton camp expectation management (4.00 / 1)
I'm with Chris. Too much conspiracy implied in your use of the royal "they."  
[ Parent ]
Obama "still the underdog" (0.00 / 0)
Chris, I agree with you whole-heartedly (as a HRC supporter) as being amazed by this narrative.  But from a slightly different angle.  A friend and I were just watching the Obama news conference and where he said "Hillary is still the frontrunner in every single contest."  My friend and I looked at each other and said "how does he get away with that. He is the frontrunner.  More money, more states, more delegates -- doesn't that equal frontrunner?"

what's with that?  i would say it's less the press at this point driving this narrative rather than Barack.

I agree... (0.00 / 0)
I agree that the early spin war was won by the Clinton campaign if only because the split decision narrative was so strong rather than the "Obama closed the massive national gap" narrative that really is the story. However as today has played out it seems you are seeing more and more analysts calling Super Tues for Obama and pointing out his advantages in money and the upcoming calendar (see VandenHei in Politico right now for instance--"5 Reasons why HRC should be worried"). So the spin game will eventually settle with the facts on the ground, which favor Obama.
I think you just need to wait a bit. (0.00 / 0)
If and when Clinton actually does start self financing (and/or the story gets wider play than just speculation on a couple of blogs), expect the narrative to change in the way you describe.

And I don't think it's a net positive for Obama. The most obvious result is that she'll be able to erase his fundraising advantage, and the Obamas don't have anywere near the coffers to respond in kind, should they want to.

$ (0.00 / 0)
I have no doubt that Obama will raise at least 30 million in February.

That's more money than the Clinton's have to give to themselves.

The money game will always be Obama's.  Every one of his millions of donors can continue to give exactly the same amount they have given before.

[ Parent ]
She doesn't need to match him dollar for dollar (0.00 / 0)
Its not 22 states anymore but groups of 3 or 4 states.  If she can raise or loan herself $20 mill then that should be more then enough to compete on a level playing field.

In the end it will be up to the voters.

[ Parent ]
Kerry jumpstarted his campaign with a self-loan. (0.00 / 0)
Some of donors Clinton gets probably want to see her put the same type of commitment into her campaign before they jump back in.


[ Parent ]
Okay (0.00 / 0)
So now it comes out that they have self-loaned -- $5 million. Let's see what happens.
[ Parent ]
There's a simple explanation for this: (4.00 / 2)
Obama is not the frontrunner, and I seriously doubt he can ever be one against the Clintons.

There best framework for understanding this campaign is to see it as a serious primary challenge against a powerful incumbant.  Use your Lamont/Lieberman lens right now.  The Clintons have use the classic incumbancy strategy in a tight race, primary or general.  That is to leverage tradition voting blocks via strategic appeals: i.e. the Rove manuever.  There is very seldom a time when any challenger, particularly in a primary fight, is not vulnerable to being overtaken by the incumbant, since voters tend to side with the devil they know.  The reason he even has a chance is because the actual president is not running.  His wife is, which would normally be discrediting, even as an Obama supporter, I must admit that she is indeed a formidable politician--at least among Democratic primary voters.  Of course, that's par for the course in Clinton history.

 

The Politics of Bruno S.

well, they've already (0.00 / 0)
been talking A LOT about Obama's financial advantage, and with this story of possible self-financing, the pundits definitely could start making it sound as if she's in some trouble. But I think they're mostly going to wait until the Saturday results. Then the 'trouble' meme might take hold. Then, the Tuesday results might magnify that. I mean, NO ONE in the trad media is as detailed and perceptive as you, dude.

Also, some more endorsements and super delegates coming off the fence could be in play.

Let's see what develops over the next few days (0.00 / 0)
I don't think the media knows what the final delegate counts are.  I heard one reporter on the radio today flat out say that Clinton won more delegates yesterday, but I am not convinced that is (or is not) true.  

Finally, having been burned in January, I do think it is wise for the media to call it a tie and an ongoing battle.  Kerry and McCain have had to resort to loans, so it's not the end of the world for Clinton.  

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

Hillary as incumbent? (4.00 / 1)
I think it's a really good move for Obama to remain the 'underdog' in the media.  This can only help him when he wins and raises more money.  When you're perceived as the challenger, every win is a defeat for the opponent.

Hillary is running as an incumbent VP - she would have to suffer something terrible to loose frontrunner status.

Hence Penn's statement today about Obama being the establishment candidate - an absurd idea considering Clinton spent 8 years in the white house and says "35 years of experience" in every speech.

In some bizarre technical way Penn might be right - after all Obama was elected to office in 1997, Clinton has only served since 2000.

at this point, facts > expectations (0.00 / 0)
Obama has more pledged delegates today. Soon - a week? two weeks? does it matter? - he will have more overall delegates.

Obama has and will have more money - a lot more.

Obama is better at convincing people to support him. Those who decided in the past month broke for him yesterday.

Obama is better at inspiring his supporters to actually show up for him in caucuses. He hasn't lost a caucus yet (Nevada disclaimer), and likely won't.  

Remember when $100 oil was a crazy idea? Remember when the euro was a joke? National narratives rarely catch up with momentum until facts force them to do so. Then, in retrospect, most agree that it was obvious.

Eventually, fact trumps paradigm.

Sorry to beat the horse, but for some reason it drives me up the wall that anyone still thinks Clinton can win without a massive Obama f-up.    

A strong possibility... (4.00 / 1)
is that the Clinton campaign is in financial trouble, although not completely dire straits, and they strategically decided to float this story about financing her own campaign.

It is easier for the media to run with that story and reach millions of Clinton supporters who are not in traditional donor networks than to try to contact those people yourself.  

If first time donors in Hillary's base feel Hillary herself is literally going for broke in the next month, they are probably more likely to write her a check.

As you note, they want the expectations game to amount to Obama "holding serve" over the next two weeks while we wait for a decisive March 4th.  Emphasizing his financial advantage and saying that she is saving resources for March may help her entrench that perception.

John McCain: Health insurance for low income children represents an "unfunded liability."

Brilliant (0.00 / 0)
I totally agree - this is the campaign calling to the voters for help.

Smart call.

[ Parent ]
Obama presidency (4.00 / 2)
As a side note, this is the basic narrative I expect to see in an actual Obama presidency.  He'll give great SOTU speeches as well as policy advocacy speeches that build up huge hopes and expectations of tremendous change.  The reality will be much rockier, some things will be conceded and compromised away and many will be disappointed the next day.  However, as time goes by and we look back to see what was actually accomplished and we'll all go "dang, that was pretty good".
YES, that's what he.... (0.00 / 0)
....always says 'this will be tough, this will be hard work, we will make mistakes...etc."

I've never heard Clinton say "we will make mistakes"  OR "I made a mistake when I voted for the war"...

[ Parent ]
I don't see... (0.00 / 0)
...how Clinton could have ever made a mistake. Don't you know that she's got THIRTY FIVE YEARS of experience? :)
[ Parent ]
Chris Bowers dominating pundit (0.00 / 0)
hyperbole contest!
Where is all the lobbyist money? (0.00 / 0)
Obama keeps talking about how Clinton takes money from lobbiests, corporations, etc.  Guess he won't be able to say that anymore.
She spent it (0.00 / 0)
Hillary has a much smaller donor base, and she has gotten many more maximum donations.  Those people legally can't give more (and can't legally reimburse people for giving to her (the Horman Hsu problem).  So she needs new people, while Obama's people can double or triple or more what they've already given, and he's still drawing in new people.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.
[ Parent ]
She.... (0.00 / 0)

spent it on advertising for Feb 5th.
[ Parent ]
There are only so many lobbyists (0.00 / 0)
Clinton spent a whole year tapping them, there aren't many left that haven't already given.
[ Parent ]
Clinton Dominating Expectations Game | 26 comments
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