Saturday Election Results Thread

by: Chris Bowers

Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 17:26


I am unavailable to blog this evening, but voting has begun in the Washington caucuses. I imagine that results will be coming in almost any minute now. Any major news website should suffice.

The Nebraska caucuses have already begun. The Nebraska Democratic Party will be posting results at  8:15 p.m. eastern. Early indications are of another Obama caucus blowout.

Polls in Louisiana close at 9pm eastern. I imagine any major news website will have results.

Also, the US Virgin Islands held a party convention today.  
Chris Bowers :: Saturday Election Results Thread

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Saturday Election Results Thread | 31 comments
So you know I tallied (0.00 / 0)
up Kos reports from people coming in for those numbers ... turnout is huge!
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...
AP Has a great story (0.00 / 0)
So far, so good... (0.00 / 0)
It seems like Obama is going to blow out Clinton in Nebraska by a fairly large margin - I wouldn't put a 70-30 rout out of the question.

Washington, from the anecdotes I've read from caucusgoers, also seems like it should be good for Obama.

That being said, over at dKos, it seems like a lot of people are expecting Clinton to win in Louisiana...any idea why? It doesn't make much sense, given Obama was the only candidate to visit the state in-person before the primary.

Turnout in LA is depressed (0.00 / 0)
I doubt she will win, but turnout is really low which favors her.
[ Parent ]
but if the turnout is low across the board (0.00 / 0)
(and not just among A-A's), that would seem to favor Obama because he does better among the most hard-core voters
[ Parent ]
I think it's more about managing expectations (0.00 / 0)
and getting people to make phone calls
[ Parent ]
Katrina (0.00 / 1)
Maybe it's all those hundreds of millions of dollars that Bill Clinton [along with Poppy Bush] raised for Katrina victims??

What did Barack do for the Katrina victims--cry???

[ Parent ]
I've pressed on this over there (4.00 / 1)
And haven't really gotten anything satisfactory.  A lot of people go with "the state's a lot less black, post-Katrina, than it used to be."  But if you look at the actual numbers, this isn't really true.  New Orleans is significantly less black (and significantly smaller), but is still 58% black, while the rest of the state has gone from something like 34% black to 31% Black.

The other thing that people point to seems to be "low turnout," but there seems to be little evidence as to how this will lead to a demographic miracle of Clinton winning the state.

Also mentioned "Machine politics."  

[ Parent ]
Yah (0.00 / 0)
I know this from friends anecdotally, but lots of the folks left Nawlins ended up on the North Shore of Ponchartrain and especially in Baton Rouge and environs. That includes a lot of middle class blacks.
[ Parent ]
Exit Polls (0.00 / 0)
Based on early exit polls, Obama should win. Half the voters are black, but also most are over 65 and heavily women. Just the fact that half is black should be enough to carry Obama by a comfortable margin though and he will do well with students since he showed up at Tulane.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/...

[ Parent ]
25% is not most (0.00 / 0)
1 in 4 caucus goers were over 65.  That's obviously high, but hardly "most".
[ Parent ]
Interesting (0.00 / 0)
I would have expected Clinton to rally somewhat, but to be fair Obama was way behind on Feb 5th polling.  So perhaps he will manage to keep climbing.

The liberal wiki
Send an email to terra@liberalwiki.com
Democratic Primaries (4.00 / 2)
I am sure that as you strive to make the superdelegate process more democratic, you will also work to ensure that caucuses are not used.  Working class folks, moms juggling careers and children, and many others from the Democratic Party's base can't caucus; they have neither the time nor the ability to hang around all day, or show up at a specific appointed hour to caucus.  Thus, many voices are silenced and the results of the caucuses are skewed.        
Modified Caucuses Are OK (4.00 / 1)
There's a lot of value to helping Democrats meet other Democrats in a caucus. But there are some places, such as Maine, which allow absentee voting in their caucuses.

I keep saying this, but Democrats Abroad have the best system this cycle: fax, Internet, and in-person voting for a full week. (Nice job, DA.)

[ Parent ]
Get rid of the entire caucus system! (0.00 / 0)
I don't know why those of you who are so upset about the entire super delegates issue and the seating of the FL and MI delegates aren't equally angry at the entire caucus system.  

To me, it's extremely UNDEMOCRATIC.  It's only purpose is for state party-building.  Isn't that the OLD system that so many of you in the netroots want to abandon as "yesterday's politics?"  Isn't there a better way to party-build??

You know all of the arguments--it leaves too many people out, especially the working class that can't afford to spend hours, usually at diner time, sitting and debating before they vote; many others are working during caucus time. Primaries are much better, IMO.  They are more convenient for MORE people, giving MORE people the opportunity to vote for the candidate of their choice.  I thought that this is what all of you want??  HYPOCRITES!

[ Parent ]
Dad juggling child (4.00 / 1)
Took our 3 year-old to 1pm caucus.  No problem.  She sat in her stroller most of the time.  In our precinct of 60 members there were two babes-in-arms, two stroller-bound, 2 bored older kids with books.  Total time commitment (with drive): 2 hours.    Feeling of civic/party engagement vs. primary method: off the charts.  I just spent more face-to-face time with our neighbors than we've accumulated in the last two years.

I'm trying to think of what other kind of periodic civic forum would motivate 10% of the population of my neighborhood to engage each other in a face to face discussion of public matters.  It seems to me that this is the correct social function of a political party.

By the way, I find the barrier to entry much lower for the caucus than for our local Democratic Legislative District meetings.  Those happen in the evenings (after my daughter's bedtime) and really can run on for hours and hours.   I still haven't been able to swing it since she was born.    

[ Parent ]
Why politics in America has changed. (0.00 / 0)
An early count showed that 6,000 people showed up at the school to caucus, including 2,000 people who registered Saturday. About 1,500 of the new registrants had switched from other parties.

"There's a hell of a lot fewer Republicans in Sarpy County than there were yesterday,'' Summers said.

This is Nebraska folks, the quote is from www.journalstar.com
http://www.journalstar.com/new...
thats the link.

This is a phenomenon. Something big is happening in America.


Change
"We must break up the banks and never again let them get so big that they distort our politics and take down the economy.

Let us hope (0.00 / 0)
it isn't based on personality.
[ Parent ]
Let us hope it is inspiring and progressive (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]
All Precincts Counted In 2nd CD... Barack CRUSHES Hillary (4.00 / 1)
Douglas County (Omaha):
Barack Obama 77%
Hillary Clinton 23%

Sarpy County (Bellevue, Papillion, LaVista) [split between 2nd and 1st CDs]:
Barack Obama 75%
Hillary Clinton 25%


Further Reading

Forgot the link (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]
Wow (0.00 / 0)
Should be an Obama landslide - I'd think Omaha would be the most Hillary friendly part of the state.
[ Parent ]
Not really... (0.00 / 0)
Most populated, and most Democratic, but also a lot younger and with a relatively high percentage of African Americans. It's the easiest place to get high turnout to work in your favor.

The 3rd CD is much older, and I would expect rough parity out there. The 1st CD is mostly rural except for Lincoln, which should also go heavily to Obama.

Based on these numbers, the 2nd CD is probably going to be a 5-1 split in Obama's favor. The 3rd CD will probably go 2-2, and I'm guessing that the 1st will likely go 4-2 Obama.  

Further Reading

[ Parent ]
REPUGS select our candidate (0.00 / 0)
Of course there are--now that McCain has a lock on the Republican nomination, they want to play a little game with our primaries/caucuses, and we are fools to let them.

The entire caucus system needs to go and NO non-Dems should be able to vote in any future Democratic primary EVER AGAIN!!

Do you people think that these new voters will vote for Barack in the fall?  Think again.

[ Parent ]
A Cool Liveblog (0.00 / 0)
Has post from dozens of Washington Sites - looks like a 3-1 for Obama there too!

http://slog.thestranger.com/20...

Quick note from WA Precinct 37-1872 (4.00 / 3)
My hood is an ethnically diverse, upper-middle income, owner-occupied, single-family residential patch of Southeast Seattle, 15 minutes from downtown on the western shore of Lake Washington.  There are 250 registered Democrats in this 15 block square and 60 of them turned out at a local middle school this afternoon to caucus with couple dozen other such precincts. I think this is about 50% more participants from our precinct than gathered four years ago.  Or maybe it is twice as many?  So much for scientific rigor.

What I do recall is that last time we went 2 for Dean and 2 for Kerry.  This time it was 3 for Obama and 1 for Clinton.  Clinton's 14 supporters all skewed older and seemed somewhat  more involved in the business of the local Party.  By that I mean, the 2 or 3 people busiest with the paperwork for the meeting, tabulating the votes, etc., all happened to be in the Clinton camp.  This seemed mildly problematic but there  were many Obama-sympathizers looking over their shoulders and watching everything very carefully. All in all, everyone was very good natured (even 'neighborly' you might say) and nobody tried any monkey business.

After breaking into our initial groups (4 Uncommitted, 12 Clinton and 44 Obama) the chair invited each camp to select a spokesperson to lobby the opponents and uncommitteds.  There was a long awkward period where nobody stepped-up.  One of our precinct members, and Obama-backer is Seattle's former mayor, Norm Rice.  Some in the group pleaded for him to take over and be the voice of the Obama camp but he refused, chuckled, refused again, and insisted, "No, thank you."  More awkward silence and then finally I volunteered if nobody else would step-forward. As it turned out, there weren't enough uncommeitteds to change the count, but I did take some pride in swinging 2 of them, and even one Clinton, to the Obama side.

In other business, there was an ironic and charming resolution offered to discontinue caucuses and hold only a primary in the 2012 presidential election.  This resolution passed 39 to 11 and will move up the food-chain for consideration at the State Legislative District caucus in April.  

My 3 year-old daughter insisted that we take a potty break right then so I missed any chance to represent the caucus up the line.  No doubt my neighbors narrowly avoided the open corruption and tyrannical abuse that would surely have run rampant under my administration.  

Looking Great for Barack.. (0.00 / 0)
As an ardent and long-time supporter of Obama's, I'm pumped up for tonight's results. I think his margins are going to defy the lowered expectations put out in the "leaked" campaign memo (finally), and that he will have at least 2, and most likely 3, crushing wins tonight.

It takes the pundits a while to catch up, but after Tuesday, they'll get the picture that the Obama movement is real, the passion is real, and that John McCain will have nothing to offer in the face of the political wave heading his way in November.

Also, I want to say that Obama's campaign team, led by Plouffe and Axelrod, have done a great job not getting too down or too up as this race has gone along for over a year. Mark Penn and company were great and composed when they led by 20 points in the polls, but once this thing started to close in November of 2007, they began to panic. How would they possibly run at a starting deficit against McCain in November? Luckily, with hard work and determination, we won't find out.

It definitely seems like Obama has the momentum (0.00 / 0)
It makes me think that the whole 50/50 thing on feb 5th was happenstance and that Obama will continue to move up in the polls as people learn more about him.

The liberal wiki
Send an email to terra@liberalwiki.com
[ Parent ]
CNN results thus far - Nebraska called (0.00 / 0)
CNN calls Nebraska for Obama - looks like a huge nearly 70-30 margin there.

Washington doesn't look far behind - 67%-32% Obama with 35% counted.

These margins are going to be very important - Obama is winning states by wide margins, so he's building an advantage in spite of the proportional allocation.

And Washington... (0.00 / 0)
And CNN calls Washington as well.

Given the margins, it's going to be a big night for Obama even if Louisiana disappoints.

[ Parent ]
I don't understand the CNN results (0.00 / 0)
They say they have 37% reporting, but on the county-by-county list they only have results for a few small, rural counties. Nothing yet from the Seattle Metro, at all.  Something's got to be wrong here, and if it's the number of precincts reporting, rather than the county list, that could be great news for Obama, as anecdotal evidence has the big urban areas going 80-20 to him.
Saturday Election Results Thread | 31 comments
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