Potomac Primary Returns Thread

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 19:00


( - promoted by Chris Bowers)

Second Potomac Primary returns thread here

Update 8: Obama takes the lead in CNN's delegate count, 1,170 to 1,168. That lead will increase throughout the evening.

Update 7--McCain wins Virginia: Darn. Still, it is clear he does not have the support of a large portion of Republicans, from Paul supporters to Dobson / Huckabee supporters to Rush Limbaugh. A fractured Republican base will be a serious problem for him.I feel confident that Democrats will start to exert significant polling leads on McCain. Also, I will stop updating the Republican results in Virginia.

Update 6--Democrats Abroad Won't Announce Until February 21st: I guess the voting finished today, but we won't know the results for a while:

The official winner of the Athens primary won't be made public until later this week, but unofficially I heard that Obama won by a comfortable margin. The global tally of expatriate Democrats in 33 countries will be announced on Feb. 21.

Lots of delays tonight, apparently.

Update 5--Virginia GOP pulling a Washington GOP? Well, it seems that the counting has stopped in the Virginia Republican primary for about 30 minutes now. Did they find it necessary to fix this one for McCain, too?

Update 4--Obama Wins D.C.: To no one's surprise, Obama is projected as the winner of the D.C. primary by MSNBC. Without an exit poll, CNN cannot project.

Update 3--Maryland Polls Open Until 9:30: Apparently, the Maryland polls will stay open longer than expected. Also, check out this great Virginia results link.

Update 2--Huckabee to win Virginia?: The exit polls are beginning to shift, as per usual. The biggest change is that the Republican exit polls now project Huckabee ahead by about 1%. Hahahahahahaha. I also find it interesting that the more likely someone is to attend religious services, the more likely that person is to vote for Obama. Overall, the non-Christian vote is split, as Obama seems to do well among "others" while Clinton does well among seculars. Also, there does not appear to be an education gap in Virginia, as we have seen in other states.

Update--Obama Wins Virginia: CNN and MSNBC call Virginia for Obama. Wait for delegate counts, of course. The exit poll indicates something like 61%-39% for Obama. No call in the Republican race, but the exit poll looks pretty good for McCain.

Exit polls are supposedly showing blowouts in the Democratic contests. There could be immediate calls when the polls close.

Democratic Presidential Results
State Reporting Obama % Clinton % Delegates Obama Del Clinton Del
Virginia 77.8% 63.3% 35.5% 83 47 27
D.C. 0% 0% 0% 15 0 0
Maryland 9:30 p.m. -- -- 70 0 0

Maryland 4th Results
0% Reporting polls close at 8 p.m. 9:30 pm. eastern
Edwards: --
Wynn: --

Virginia Republican Results
62.9% reporting
McCain: 47.4% (projected winner)
Huckabee: 44.1%

Chris Bowers :: Potomac Primary Returns Thread

Tags: , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
VA a "substantial" victory for Obama (4.00 / 1)
MSNBC et al just called it.

Republican race is too close to call. (!)


same as CNN (0.00 / 0)
looks like those leaked exit polls were real.  


New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

[ Parent ]
Edwards-Wynn (4.00 / 1)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Wapo has a results tally there. Though they only list the incumbent and the first (alphabetically) challenger, which is totally useless. Maybe that will change based on who is getting the most votes?

I support John McCain because children are too healthy anyway.


Also (0.00 / 0)
Keep an eye out for what happens to Gilchrest in MD 01.  We may see the Republicans take down one of their few moderates in a district that is very winnable for us.

I support John McCain because children are too healthy anyway.

Obama wins women and older voters. (0.00 / 0)

In a PRIMARY.  Enough said.

That's a great exit poll for Obama (0.00 / 0)
He nearly splits white voters with Clinton, and wins virtually every other demographic group going away.  Pretty amazing, if it holds up.

I don't see how the Clintons can explain that away.


No real education gap in Virginia (0.00 / 0)
According to the exit poll. Significant?

Possibly, but (0.00 / 0)
coalitions tend to vary from state to state. That is potentially quite interesting, however.  

[ Parent ]
Media (4.00 / 1)
The media narrative is shaping nicely for Obama... They are hitting his invading her coalition in VA.  His campaign needs to hit this big time in the speech tonight.

[ Parent ]
It would (0.00 / 0)
be nice to see it broken down by both race and education.

[ Parent ]
Republican exit poll (0.00 / 0)
I may be missing something, but the republican exit poll looks good for Huckabee!

Huck wins the female vote (47%) by 6.
McCain wins the male vote (53%) by 3.

That's like a 1-2% win for Huck, if this exit poll holds up.


Mccain (0.00 / 0)
Appears to be pulling away from Huck as teh results roll in.

[ Parent ]
Latinos for Obama (4.00 / 1)
CNN says he won Latinos in Virginia 55-45.

They were 5% of the electorate.


OTOH (4.00 / 2)

In fairness to Clinton, CNN's exit poll of 1200 had 60 Latinos. 33 said Obama, and 27 said Clinton. That's not exactly proof of a sea change.

[ Parent ]
True (0.00 / 0)
But if he only loses latinos by less than a third, its a good thing for him.

[ Parent ]
Obama won latino's 55/45! (0.00 / 0)
So much for that theory...its a name id. thing, not a racial thing.

Yeah, shocker! (0.00 / 0)
Sorry I didn't see your comment when I made the same comment. The exit polls are excellent talking points for Obamas cam[aign against the spinning of the Clinton camp on why none of these states matter.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, huge (0.00 / 0)
Its ok, the comment over me is saying the same thing.

[ Parent ]
Huckabee leads in exit poll (0.00 / 0)
Chris et al,

The Virginia exit poll doesn't look "pretty good" for McCain - do the math and it shows him losing to Huckabee, 45.76% to 44.53% or something like that.  Uness I am doing the math wrong, but I think it is right, based on their male/female breakdown.

-RG


Hilary still hasn't won one night in delegates (0.00 / 0)
Just sayin'.  Not one night has she won the delegate race.  So far, at least - March 4 she'll have her first delegate win, for a night.


Assuming there is no such thing as momentum. n/t (0.00 / 0)


"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

[ Parent ]
Obama won the Latino vote. (0.00 / 0)


Virginia SBE 20%, 61.2 O, 37.7 C n/t (0.00 / 0)


MD 21:30 (0.00 / 0)
MD now won't close till 9:30 PM per MSNBC..

Anyone care to posit how that affects the Edwards race?


Too Many Obama Voters! (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
Ice (0.00 / 0)
I am just north in RightWingerVille PA, my parents live in MD. I hear they are having some bad weather.

[ Parent ]
HEY CHRIS (0.00 / 0)
Hey Chris,

You are up on the Delegate math.  Is there ANY CHANCE of a convention maneuver by Huckabee to steal this thing?  Could he cut a deal with Romney for his delegates (in exchange for VP), which would close the gap.  Is there ANYWAY for Huckabee to keep McCain from Clinching (I know he can't win outright)?


I don't know (0.00 / 0)
But if Huck can take Virginia, Texas, and Ohio, then he might be able to prevent McCain from reaching 1,191 for a loooong time.  

[ Parent ]
Huckabee (0.00 / 0)
I share your sense of desperation!
There was some talk among the far-right aristocrats that if Romney stayed in and Huckabee cooperated, the two could outmaneuver McCain at the convention and somehow keep him from the nomination. I think there were way too many ifs/and/buts in that theory (mainly, keeping McCain from the magic number), and clearly Romney didn't think there was a chance. Besides, Huckabee doesn't seem very interested in making any deals. Someone said it best when they pointed out that Huckabee's got nothing better to do than run for president. He gets to be in the national spotlight and it's not costing him a dime.  

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

[ Parent ]
Deal? (0.00 / 0)
Yeah but for him to WIN he would need to cut a deal.

[ Parent ]
Huckabee's waiting (0.00 / 0)

Huckabee's waiting for McCain to spring for the nice leather couch on his wedding registry.

[ Parent ]
Oh, and either way (0.00 / 0)
If McCain keeps losing primaries, it seriously damages him in the general. A candidate stumbling to victory in his own party looks really bad. If Huckabee wins Virginia tonight, expect Obama to start showing double-digit leads over McCain this week.  

[ Parent ]
Well maybe... (0.00 / 0)
I should vote for Huckabee in the Ohio Primary.

I support John McCain because children are too healthy anyway.

[ Parent ]
extra 1.5 hours of voting in Maryland? (0.00 / 0)
strange?  Good?  Who does this benefit?

just 30 minutes (0.00 / 0)
and it is a reasonable accommodation for icy conditions and people getting off work IMO.  

[ Parent ]
oops 90 minutes, you are right. (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
initially i was concerned about this (0.00 / 0)
all sorts of local races could be impacted however, the weather is bad. Its icy, frigid, and wet--roads are slick. There will be no last minute GOTV or driving vans of Hillary voters to the polls (Wynn voters??). No one will go out unless they have to or unless they are very motivated.

From the Baltimore Sun:

Polling hours in Maryland have been extended until 9:30 p.m. due to inclement weather conditions, a state official announced in a news release.

Polls across the state had been scheduled to close at 8 p.m. The Anne Arundel County Circuit Court ordered that precincts statewide stay open en extra 90 minutes.

All voters in extended hours must vote by provisional ballot.



[ Parent ]
White, Democratic Women over 60 (0.00 / 0)
I think Hillary still has the white, Democratic women over 60 vote locked up.

exit polls (0.00 / 0)
I think we're seeing a general pattern forming among exit polls around the country.

The black and white votes have followed completely different trajectories. The white vote is split at roughly 50% along the combined demographics of gender, age, and income. The black vote has completely coalesced around Obama, regardless of gender, age, and income.

That pretty much sums up where the electorate is at these days. Comments/disagreements?

The truth about Saxby Chambliss


one more factor (0.00 / 0)
Not based on the VA exit poll, but based on state-by-state comparisons... In addition to gender, age, and income, the white vote seems to be split by population density (urban vs. rural).

By the way, I'm surprised to see that Clinton won western VA. Seems like Obama has generally cleaned up in the rural white vote.

The truth about Saxby Chambliss


[ Parent ]
Only problem with this victory (4.00 / 1)
Is having to endure Tweety's misogny and Clinton hatred, as he crows for Obama.  In fact, the "Obama ahead!" narrative, will have some blowback, I'm telling you...

Churchgoers (0.00 / 0)
Chris,

African Americans in the South tend to be regular churchgoers.  I imagine if you controlled for race you wouldn't see those differences in religious attendance.


I still bet you would (0.00 / 0)
he is winning catholic/weekley's too and his evangelical numbers are 20% higher than her's in Nat'l fav/unfav's

[ Parent ]
Time to move on? (4.00 / 5)
Well......
I've been pulling for Hillary but let's face it this smells like the end....
Never been a huge fan of Obama's but what I care about more than anything is beating the Repubs in Nov.
I have to tip my hat to Obama and all his supporters. They have run a frickin' great campaign. To think of who he is, where he came from, what he was up against and where he is now is pretty astounding......
I can only hope that the skills he and his crew brought to this campaign will apply in the GE - and that if and when he makes to the White House that they will apply to his ability to get things done....
Although I find it sad - he's outplayed Hillary in organization, message, strategy even in the sharp elbows department....
So I for one am ready to move on....

My calcs... (0.00 / 0)
I have a 48-24 delegate advantage for Obama, using the current district level breakdowns...

Not sure if this will hold up, or if I actually did the math with the correct breakpoints...  

Should be close to those numbers for VA though, I'd think.

Also not sure how PLEO delegates work, so they're not included...  Hopefully, I was working off of the correct delegate allocations!


905 EST - VA (0.00 / 0)
I've got Obama 54 to Clinton 29.

CD 2, 4, 5, 8, 11 could swing one way or the other with delegates. Clinton winning 3-1 in CD9.



[ Parent ]
New Talking Point (0.00 / 0)
After the delegate counts come in tonight, it will begin to be clear that there is almost no chance Hillary Clinton can win the nomination without the help of the sketchy FL & MI primaries and/or the super delegates.  

Therefore, if you are an undecided, or Hillary leaner, and you do not want an ugly convention fight, it is time to start voting for Obama.  Hillary's only path to victory will now include any ugly convention fight and divide the Democratic party.  However, if everyone mobilizes behind Obama, the nightmare scenario of a convention fight can be avoided by Obama winning or coming close in Texas and/or OH.  

Fired up!!!  Ready to go!!!  GObama!!!

A vote against Health Care Reform is a vote for ten 9/11s every single year!


msnbc just made this point (0.00 / 0)
Howard Fineman said he spoke to both campaigns and according to him HRC said they don't believe they can win the pledged delegate count when it's all over.  Their strategy is now to stem the tide and hope to narrow the gap to around 30 pd's.  Then hope to get FL/MI involved and enough sd's to turn the vote.    

[ Parent ]
Virginia SBE (60%) 7.9 % DEM, 4.6% GOP n/t (0.00 / 0)


No criticism of Chris' reporting... (0.00 / 0)
...but this IS]] kind of dull.

Regrettably, Prop Joe was unable to vote for Obama in the MD Dem primary.  

Who did the other characters on The Wire vote for?


What about the race for independents? (0.00 / 0)
Who won them?  To me the real battle for VA is between Obama and McCain for independents.  Who won that battle?

If we track the independent vote percentages in each of the open primaries does Obama or McCain win.  Is this a good indicator of results in the fall?

vm

Radical Centerist


The streams have crossed (0.00 / 0)
As of right this moment, with that last update of Virginia delegates, the delegate totals on CNN say:

Barack Obama
Pledged: 1014
Superdelegates: 156
Total: 1,170

Hillary Clinton
Pledged: 934
Superdelegates: 234
Total: 1,168

(I'm told Obama had already passed Clinton in, for example, the CBS delegate count.)


Democrats Abroad? (0.00 / 0)
Weren't we supposed to get Democrats Abroad results tonight? Anyone know what happened there?

Memo (0.00 / 0)
May I just say, the "accidentally" leaked memo... BEST. MOVE. EVER!  Talk about setting expectations.

These kids know how to win (0.00 / 0)
And they have the right issues and they have an ever better organized base, and they have ever more connected support coalition.

A candidate that is:
Inspiring. Reassuring. Well spoken. Calm.

I'm OK with the choice.

Ready to go.

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky


[ Parent ]
USER MENU

Open Left Campaigns

SEARCH

   

Advanced Search

QUICK HITS
STATE BLOGS
Powered by: SoapBlox