| First, some important points:
1. I figured having maps for only one candidate was good enough, as for most states there are only two candidates, and I chose Obama. My apologies to Clinton supporters.
2. In some of the states, Edwards had a large amount of support: IA, NH, SC, FL, OK. Keep this in mind as you look at the maps.
3. The demographic groups are not uniform nationwide. This is most important for the category of race: for example, while Latinos in one area may be primarily first and second generation Americans with family in South America, in another the community could well-established, going back many generations to before the territory was part of the United States.
Now, onwards:
Many of the stories I've read about the primaries and the exit polls have been very careful about how they word things. That's fine, but even accurate wording ('Clinton had strong support from such-and-such a group') could easily be internalized by the casual reader as 'all such-and-suches vote for Clinton.' Indeed, it seems that this has happened and a number of these statements have become Conventional Wisdom. These Conventional Wisdom Myths suffer from oversimplification and generalization. They are sometimes used in destructive and reductive narratives about voting behavior and cultural biases. But more importantly, they cover up a truly impressive fact: the breadth and diversity of people who are voting for Clinton or Obama.
Myth: The incumbent rule is in effect, as Clinton is effectively an incumbent.
(See the map in the introduction.) I've seen this several times, that we should assume undecideds break for Obama because he is essentially a challenger. This is actually true if you're looking at voters who are undecided several weeks ahead of the election, but in most cases the most recent polls are taken just a day or two before the election. In this case, we want to know how those who make up their mind at the last minute vote. And the results say: about an even split between Obama and Clinton, with an advantage for Clinton most of the time. Some notable exceptions are Arkansas (Clinton's home state), Florida (where Obama did not campaign), and Utah.
Myth: White women all vote for Clinton.
In most states, large majorities of white women voted for Clinton, but Obama won this category in several exit polls, and, one would assume, many of the states where Obama had a landslide victory, such as Idaho, Alaska, Kansas, etc. And as the map shows, even if Clinton won this category, you still have about 30% of white women voting for Obama in many states. That's a lot of votes.
 
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Women have been a crucial part of Obama's coalition. Not only that, when you look at women altogether, he has actually won more votes from women than Clinton in 9 states with exit polls (and remember, this doesn't count the probable victories among women in WA, NE, KS, MN, ME, ID, AK, CO and ND).
A few interesting tidbits about women's support for Obama:
Without the votes of white women, Obama would have tied Clinton in Alabama.
Without the votes of latina women, Obama would have lost New Mexico by 12 points.
Without the votes of white women older than 60, Obama would have lost Missouri by a few points.
Myth: Latinos won't vote for Obama, and Blacks won't vote for Clinton.
The narrative out of the Potomac primaries actually did a good job busting the Latinos won't vote for Obama myth. However, I would like to emphasize that Clinton still has a substantial amount of African-American support. It might not sound like much, but when she gets 20%, that's 1 out of 5 people. You can't dismiss 1 out of 5 people. Without the votes of Black voters, Clinton would have tied Obama in Tennessee. Also keep in mind when looking at the map below for white voters, I didn't include the states without exit polls where Obama pulled off overwhelming victories in very melanin-challenged states. Finally, there is one case where a generalization is almost excusable: Obama won 98% of the vote of African-American men in Illinois.
  
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Myth: Old people vote for Clinton, young people won't.
Well, yes, older people vote for Clinton, but a large number vote for Obama as well - sometimes the majority of them. And young people vote for Clinton too. Without the votes of those under age 30, Clinton would have lost California by 6 points.
 
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Myth: Jewish voters won't vote for Obama.
Actually, even in Clinton's home state of New York, a third of Jewish voters voted for Obama.
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Myth: The working class votes for Clinton; latte sipping elites vote for Obama; or, all the smart people vote for Obama
First, more highly educated does not necessarily mean smarter. Don't get me started.
Let's take a look at some trivia:
Without the votes of those who earn less than $30,000 a year, Obama would have lost Iowa.
Without the votes of those who earn more than $100,000 a year, Clinton would have lost Massachusetts by 19 points.
Without the votes of those with postgraduate degrees, Clinton would have lost Arizona by 11 points.
Here's the maps:
   
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Clinton does tend to get more support from those who are poorer and less educated, and Obama does tend to get more support from those who are better off and more educated. We do have to be careful though: race, income, and education are linked together. States where large proportions of the Democratic electorate are African-American do not usually show a relationship between income or education and voting tendencies. This makes it hard to say things like "Obama cut into Clinton's working class support in the Potomac primaries" without first doing a good solid analysis of income and education by race in VA, MD, and previous contests.
There's plenty of interesting things to see in the exit polls, I think, as long as we're extra careful to remember that even when one candidate wins a certain chunk of the voters by a large amount, there's still a substantial and important minority voting for the other candidate.
PS If you like election results maps, see this diary with results by county.
Cross posted at DailyKos. |
