Dems Abroad 14 pledged delegates, not 7 (0.00 / 0)

I've mentioned this before but I'm pretty sure that DA get 14 pledged delegates and 8 super delegates. I know that there are several sources that state 7 as well so there is confusion out there. But so far the sources I've seen that use the 14/22 numbers have been very detailed.

Here's wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D...

Here's the DA site:
http://www.democratsabroad.org...

I can't find the most detailed article but it contained a lot of anecdotal evidence from DA 'conventions' around the world that indicated a big Obama win. He could end up with a margin of 6 or so here.

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by: Matt H @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 14:42:58 PM UTC

Okay, did more research and you're right (4.00 / 1)

It is 14 pledged and 8 supers but they count 1/2 each, so they really get 7 and 4, respectively, all of which you no doubt already knew.

Sorry for the confusion.

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by: Matt H @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 14:47:54 PM UTC

The difference is that the Republican race is over (0.00 / 0)

which is quite different from New Hampshire.  I imagine we will see large numbers of independents and moderate Republicans voting today in the Democratic primary.  In NH, a lot of these independent voters (esp. men) voted in the Republican primary because it seemed like it was a closer race at the time.

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by: moreaxe @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 14:50:56 PM UTC

Yep... the question is, who will they vote for? nt. (0.00 / 0)

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by: seabrook @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 14:54:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No it isn't. (0.00 / 0)

It is pretty clear who they will vote for, unless Wisconsin follows completely different patterns from the rest of the country.

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by: jlkenney @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 15:51:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Forget NH already (0.00 / 0)

I agree with your reasoning. Nobody wants to get overly confident so we hear a lot of these 'remember NH' warnings but I ain't buying it. My rallying cry is 'forget NH already!'

Relax, have a home brew, and enjoy the slow-motion beatdown.

Look for two more double-digit wins tonight.

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by: Matt H @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 15:06:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

latest ARG poll (0.00 / 0)

I too have the same feeling I did the day of the NH primary. Yesterday was a horrible news cycle for Obama and Clinton stepped up her ad buys significantly over the weekend. I just hope the clinton tears of New Hampshire does not equal the Obama "plagarism" scandal put out yesterday.  

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by: boomersun @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 15:07:03 PM UTC

I don't see the 'plaigarism scandal' having legs. (0.00 / 0)

There really isn't any there, there.  I mean, Patrick suggested that Obama use those lines, and its not like speeches are footnoted or copywrited.  If anything, I think it just makes the Clinton campaign look desperate, at a loss for any real grounds for criticism of Obama, and mean.  It is pretty self-evidently a "gotcha" attack, and I honestly don't see the voters of Wisconsin finding it compelling.    

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by: seabrook @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 15:13:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

let's hope not. (0.00 / 0)

I hope the Wisconin voters don't find it compelling. I doubt most would. However, you only need 10% of voters to find it compelling in order for it to do damage to Obama.  A lot of low-information voters might see the headline "obama accused of plagarism" right before they go out and vote. I'm not saying the thing will doom Obama in Wisconsin, but it's something to keep an eye on.  

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by: boomersun @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 15:18:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Chris I look forward to your post on the Politico article this am (0.00 / 0)

I have been a democrat since Bill's first term.  If the Clintons decide that they are going to hijack this election, I will leave the democratic party and never vote for another democrat again.  Where did the "whomever wins fair and square" phrase go.  It is apparent that they are desperate and will do or say anything to hold on to what they rightfully believe is theirs. That's not democracy, that is a banana republic.  And John Edwards is having a hard time figuring out whom to endorse?  Come on.

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by: georgeg1011 @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 15:16:47 PM UTC

Yes that is a good question. Why is JRE waiting. (0.00 / 0)

I do not understand any of the reasoning that leaves this so far out in the cycle. What is Obama doing? Or is Edwards reserving his endorsement for some reason? What does anyone think the arguments are? Please don't say "because that candidate sucks", I know, everyone is awful, so we don't need to say it again. I just want to hear reasons that Obama or Edwards might be using to hold off on the endorsement that will come, but no yet. In musing I have this incomplete list.

It gives Obama credence as he is doing this largely himself, and it gives him political weight, not beholden to any wing or group.

It positions Edwards to a big position in Obama's administration (or scotus) without the telltales of quid pro quo.

Obama has another person in mind for VP.

Exposing Clinton as "not-a-team-player" well enough that Obama won't be saddled with her on his ticket.

But please don't just spout blarney.

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky

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by: HousesofProgress @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 15:59:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

JRE could be waiting (0.00 / 0)

to see if Obama wins tonight. With two weeks until the next contest, his endorsement would get air time and could provide a strong push for SDs to get off the fence.

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by: Matt H @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 16:57:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

we already know why Wisconsin won't count (4.00 / 2)

Nice of Jerome at MyHRC to preview what tomorrow's spin will be: Wisconsin doesn't count because it's an open primary.

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by: redwards95 @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 16:09:09 PM UTC

MyHRC (0.00 / 0)

I was drinking while I read that, and now I have water over my keyboard... TO funny....

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by: benjamink @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 17:56:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hawaii polls (0.00 / 0)

A series of polls from Hawaii has been floating around the tubes.  If you combine all three polls for the month together, you get 56% Obama, 24% Clinton with 1771 interviews total.  I think these numbers are best treated as a sense of the Democratic population in Hawaii as a whole, and not likely caucus goers, even though the poll asks if the respondent is planning to caucus.  

Recall a poll taken in the weeks before the Minnesota election among Democrats had Clinton ahead 40% to 33%, and a Washington poll had Obama 50%, Clinton 45% among registered Democrats.  

Reports of local party support for Clinton might mean the caucus results will be more favorable for Clinton than what the poll suggests.  We shall see...

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by: dreaminonempty @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 16:38:57 PM UTC

New Survey USA poll has HRC up just 9 in OH (0.00 / 0)

That should pull that average down :-)

http://www.whiotv.com/politics...

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by: Matt H @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 18:01:39 PM UTC

Clinton's Daunting Task (0.00 / 0)

In addition to her pledged delegate deficit, how does Hillary convince superdelegates or anyone else that she should lead the ticket unless she improves her poll numbers in the swing states?  In head-to-head matchups with McCain, here are her numbers and Obama's in six toss-up states that have a combined 56 electoral votes (all Rasmussen or SUSA polls from February except January Virginia poll)----  Colorado: Clinton 14, Obama +7; Iowa: Clinton 11, Obama +10; Minnesota, Clinton 5, Obama +15; Oregon, Clinton 3, Obama +9; Virginia, Clinton 11, Obama 2; Wisconsin, Clinton -7, Obama +10.  

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by: historyrocks @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 19:53:27 PM UTC

Should have previewed that last one!! (0.00 / 0)

Anyway, its Colorado: Clinton minus 14, Obama plus 7; Iowa: Clinton minus 11, Obama plus 10; Minnesota: Clinton minus 5, Obama plus 15; Oregon: Clinton minus 3, Obama plus nine; Virginia: Clinton minus 11, Obama minus 2; and Wisconsin: Clinton minus 7, Obama plus 10.

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by: historyrocks @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 20:01:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Define "win" (0.00 / 0)

"Some people think that all Obama has to do is win Texas to knock Clinton out, but after crunching numbers yesterday I think she will keep going even if she only wins Ohio. The math indicates that it would be worth making one more stand."

What exactly do you mean by "win"?  If Obama wins or ties Texas, and works Ohio to close to a tie, wouldn't that essentially kill off her chances (that is, without stealing Obama's pledged delegates or having the Super Delegates swing the nomination to her)?  What kind of margins would she need in the rest of the contests to come "close" to Obama in pledged delegates? I suppose it also depends on what she calls "close", but it seems like a pledged delegate lead of around 100+ should be pretty clear.

If she loses Texas and gains only a handful of delegates in OH (even if she wins OH by 10% she'd gain about 14 delegates net), it seems like the only reason for her to stay in would be because she thinks that she can, more or less, steal the election from Obama.  Maybe it makes sense for her, but it's hard to see how that makes sense for us.

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by: leshrac55 @ Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 20:59:50 PM UTC