Exit polls are evil (0.00 / 0)

  But if seniors are really turning out in droves, Obama's toast.  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

---

by: Master Jack @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 00:27:59 AM UTC

If it's early exit polls (0.00 / 0)

Working people may come in after work, i.e., later.  Retired people can vote (and shop) late morning, when things are the slowest.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

---

by: Mimikatz @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 01:26:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I suspect those numbers won't hold (0.00 / 0)

With the turnout among the seniors, he'll probably squeak out a win, at best.

---

by: JC @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 00:33:45 AM UTC

seniors (0.00 / 0)

where did you hear that seniors were turning out in droves?

---

by: boomersun @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 00:43:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

See above (0.00 / 0)

The preliminary results also indicate that more seniors than usual are voting in the Democratic race -- up from their 2004 level, and also potentially a high for Democratic voters this cycle, though again it'll take final data later tonight to see that holds.

 And don't hang your hat on "change". Most Democrats see Hillary as an agent of change from Bush. And not 100% inaccurately.  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

---

by: Master Jack @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 00:46:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Saw it here and (0.00 / 0)

Thought I read Ambinder's take, but realize I misread it.  Apologies...

---

by: JC @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 00:48:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

1 in 4 dem voters independent (0.00 / 0)

If that is true then Obama stands to do well.  

---

by: alarabi @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 00:55:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tonight is bigger than ever (4.00 / 1)

  If Obama wins tonight, all the bullcrap "scandals" that have suddenly emerged about his campaign -- the supposed plagiarism, Michelle's remarks -- become irrelevant, because he'll have won despite them, and they'll be "old news" by the time we get to Texas.

 If Obama loses, they become amplified and repeated as "explanations" for "why he blew the lead he had going in". And he likely doesn't recover from that.

 So I think the Clintons rolled the dice with these charges -- they (correctly) counted on the media helpfully turning these nonstories into Big Deals, and now Wisconsin is the watershed of the campaign. We'll see if they pulled it off...

 

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

---

by: Master Jack @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 00:44:22 AM UTC

Actually (0.00 / 0)

The Michele Obama thing won't just go away. At some point she'll have to make a full-throated recantation.

It was an enormously stupid thing for her to say. She's said quite a few dumb things over the course of this campaign, and she needs to get her act together before the general election begins.

---

by: Jason C. @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 01:15:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Naah (0.00 / 0)

  In context, her comments were innocuous. Right-wingers were just looking for a reason to be offended -- and the media helpfully fanned their "concerns".

 If Obama gets through Wisconsin, the story becomes "Michelle's comments didn't hurt him". And they'll fade as the opposition looks for something else to hang its hat on...  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

---

by: Master Jack @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 01:26:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

She was misquoted (0.00 / 0)

The line was truncated to make it seem she said something she didn't.  She was saying she was proud so many people wanted change.  I'd say the 70%  "wrong track" folks would agree with her.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

---

by: Mimikatz @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 01:28:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not quite (0.00 / 0)

I heard the remark in full. She clearly said, and later repeated, that for the first time in her adult life, she was proud of her country. The clear implication: she had never been proud of her country before now.

Now, I don't really give a rat's behind about the comment; frankly, she's right that this country hasn't given us much to be proud of. But I'm not the average Middle American.

---

by: Jason C. @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 19:12:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

my mom voted today as a senior but (0.00 / 0)

i know she and her friends were anxious to get to the polls early.  With the ice and cold weather, and wanting to get done with it while everyone was at work, i wonder if this "large turnout of seniors" proportionally was due to early exit polling data.  students might vote later etc. Just a theory but i know there won't be a lot of seniors voting between 5 and 8 and least comparatively to working people.  So there turnout may not be proportionally higher but simply reflecting the higher turnout for all age groups.  Again just amateur polling here.  Incidentally, my mom was a life long republican and voted for Obama. I voted absentee last week for Obama.

---

by: petercjack @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 00:45:04 AM UTC

If white senior women are voting for Obama over Clinton (0.00 / 0)

This thing is over.

---

by: JC @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 00:50:39 AM UTC

That's sad (0.00 / 0)

Hillary has specific policy for women, single women, mothers, older women in her platform.  What the hell is wrong with them that they vote for the one who isn't promoting their best interests?  Sorry, I find that really sad.

NoSlaves.com  


The Economic Populist

---

by: Robert Oak @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 01:02:04 AM UTC

Wow (0.00 / 0)

I hate the part when people actually show up and vote too...

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.

---

by: Lucas O'Connor @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 01:24:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe microtargeting doesn't work (4.00 / 1)

Maybe people want to be a part of a whole community, not seen as just a demographic.

I'm an older, single (well, partnered), white woman for Obama.  

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

---

by: Mimikatz @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 01:31:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

nothing about demographics (0.00 / 0)

about how women are discriminated against for getting a job simply because they have kids to lower pay to glass ceiling to support for women in terms of health care to education.  It's about social justice.  Maybe you're lucky enough not to be affected but many women are.  

NoSlaves.com  


The Economic Populist

---

by: Robert Oak @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 02:03:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The only number that really matters here is the women (0.00 / 0)

at least in terms of who wins more votes. If Obama carried women as a whole, even if only by 1 or 2%, he's than won the primary. Of course, thats not everything.

---

by: Ben P @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 01:02:16 AM UTC

It's doubtful that it holds, once the results come in (0.00 / 0)

but it would be nice, wouldn't it?

---

by: JC @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 01:03:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Afriend from a major news org (0.00 / 0)

just emailed me and siad in the last round of exits Obama up by double digits.

I hope it is right

---

by: gaiilonfong @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 01:18:05 AM UTC

Here's an odd one (0.00 / 0)

An interesting tidbit from CNN (?)'s exit polls, found linked off TPM:

There's a fault line running through Wisconsin's Democratic primary voters in early exit polls Tuesday. Nearly 6 in 10 percent of voters who support Hillary Clinton said they would be satisfied if Barack Obama was the party's nominee; 40 percent said they would not. But the reverse doesn't hold true: a slim majority of Obama voters said they would not be satisfied if Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee.

Likely Republican nominee John McCain, who has struggled to win over his party's conservative base, fares better in that respect than either of his potential fall opponents...

I've seen a story like this after almost every preceding primary, but every other time this story has been about a poll showing the opposite-- that high majorities of the supporters of both Democratic candidates also approve of the other candidate, whereas the same has not been as much true of the Republicans.

Now, given, the other polls I've seen on this subject asked a different question; the other stories I've seen asked whether the voter would support the other candidate if they were to win the nomination, this poll asks whether the voter would be satisfied. One can easily imagine how those two questions might produce very very different responses! Another thing I'd be curious about is whether we're potentially seeing lack of support for Clinton turn to actual antipathy toward Clinton among some Obama voters over time as the Clintons' campaign tactics become more desperate and aggressive, while meanwhile McCain consolidates support on the right...

---

by: mcc @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 01:27:16 AM UTC

The Trouble with Exit Polls (0.00 / 0)

I don't put any faith in early exit polling.  On Super Tuesday, I kept track of early exit polling on CNN web sites, which becomes available just after the polls close, but well before the final count.  In primary states, the early CNN exit polling was off by an average of 5.375 percentage points in identifying the winning candidate's margin of victory.  In Arkansas, the early exit polling underestimated Clinton's margin of victory by 19 points.  In Massachusetts, it was 16 points.  

For whatever reason, the exit polling seemed to favor Obama more than Clinton.  In twelve of the sixteen Super Tuesday primary states, the exit polling overestimated Obama's strength.  I thought this might lead to a debate as to why the exit polling indicated that there was more support for Obama than there was in reality.  Were people afraid to admit that they had not voted for an African American candidate?  

But that didn't happen and won't happen because the wrong exit polling data is later changed so that it comports with the final vote tally on CNN's web site.  The early exit polling data is replaced completely.  

---

by: gunnar @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 01:54:57 AM UTC