Hawaii Prelude / Wisconsin Aftermath Thread

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 22:45


Use this thread to discuss tonight's results. I'll be back at 12:30 a.m., eastern to blog the returns in Hawaii.  
Chris Bowers :: Hawaii Prelude / Wisconsin Aftermath Thread

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Hawaii Prelude / Wisconsin Aftermath Thread | 48 comments
So how narrow (0.00 / 0)
will Obama's losses in Ohio and Texas have to be in order to make him the presumptive nominee?

Or is that not even a possibility?  

If he loses both states (0.00 / 0)
by any amount, it becomes very difficult to think of him as the presumptive nominee. He needs to win at least one state, and move ahead of Clinton according to all delegate counts.  
[ Parent ]
What if (0.00 / 0)
Obama loses Ohio narrowly, loses the Texas popular vote narrowly, but wins more delegates in Texas by a healthy margin?

[ Parent ]
You've asked the important question (0.00 / 0)
I ran a model in Texas giving Hillary approximately a 53 to 47 percent win (I based it on Senate district splits and vote by district) and she nets no delegates. Assume no organizational advantage on the caucus part of Texas and those 67 split too. It's highly likely Obama will net a significant number of those caucus driven delegates.

In other words, it is almost impossible to conceive of a way Clinton nets any delegates whatsoever in Texas. Obama, however, can lose the popular vote by 2 to 5 points and still net a large number of delegates.

[ Parent ]
never the less (0.00 / 0)
to land a knock out Obama needs to win OH or TX outright in popular vote. Winning a majority of delegates without the popular vote is not helpful to Obama, if anything its not helpful as it casts into some doubt the legitimacy of the popularly elected delegates. If Hillary wins the popular vote but not the delegates in TX she will be declared the winner in the media, and I think rightfully so.

That said marginal victories for Clinton in OH and TX are no good, because no matter what happens in Penn, without big victories in OH and TX she can not recover and hold off an Obama landslide in NC and presumably additional O victories in remaining small states.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

[ Parent ]
If narrow losses in TX and OH, mathematically that doesn't follow (0.00 / 0)
Given the delegate lead that Obama is building, and states like North Carolina that follow March 4.  

Actually, now that I think about it, I suppose by "presumptive" you mean closing it out - Obama would still be the LIKELY nominee, in the the case of narrow TX and OH wins, but you are correct, not presumptive, in the sense that it is all but over.

Here's hoping for Obama to win OH or TX, as right now, we're giving McCain the ammunition of a month of firing on Obama

[ Parent ]
Off-topic question, Chris: (0.00 / 0)
I run Firefox, and about every third or fourth time I try to come here, it can't find this site. Is it a traffic thing, or my browser?

Thanks!

[ Parent ]
Clinton Has A Hard Road (0.00 / 0)
Assuming HI runs about the same as WI is running tonight, Hillary is in trouble.

Clinton has to win in TX, OH, and PA by an average margin well over 25% to have any chance at gaining the nomination in Denver.

If she goes on to win in OH and TX by only 60-40 margins she's going to need to win over 75% of the vote in PA.  That would be the equivalent of winning almost 90% of the non-African American vote and one third of the African Americans, so it's pretty outrageously impossible.

So even winning 60-40 in both TX and OH would amount to a campaign-ending loss for Clinton.  She needs to win 65-35 or better in both, at minimum.

[ Parent ]
she'll be lucky if she can win by 15 (4.00 / 1)
she's barely ever done better than that other then Arkansas. After Super Tuesday it seemed to me that if Obama could run the table in Feb he would win. Clinton would need blowouts in OH TX and PA, which then and now look very unlikely. It seemed over then, and it definitely seems over now (/me knocks on wood). The rest is just watching the painful process of a person reaching acceptance of reality. Since I don't see any way for Hillary to win this, it would be best for the Dem party if Obama can land a knockout in TX or OH. I don't think Hillary's pride will have her stepping down before NC otherwise.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare
[ Parent ]
Ohio is within ten, and that's before tonight. (0.00 / 0)
Texas was dead heat before tonight.

Assuming Hawai'i cooperates, tonight should continue the Omentum into March. OH and TX will be dogfights, but I just don't see Clinton winning either by enough to really change the dynamic of the race. And if she loses even one, it's serious for her.

[ Parent ]
Post-primary speeches tonight (0.00 / 0)
Something I found kind of interesting in the post-primary speeches tonight.

Hillary Clinton:

It is about picking a president who relies not just on words but on work, on hard work to get America back to work. That's our goal!... We can't just have speeches, we've got to have solutions, and we need those solutions for America. We've got to get America back in the solutions business. Because while words matter, the best words in the world aren't enough unless you match them with action.

John McCain:

I will fight every moment of every day in this campaign to make sure Americans are not deceived by an eloquent but empty call for change that... [Applause] It's no more than an eloquent but empty call for change...

Clinton and McCain, in their respective campaigns against Obama, are now basically voicing the exact same attack in the exact same words: That Obama talks real pretty and that's somehow a bad thing.

Yeah (4.00 / 1)
But Obama needs a nice comeback to those lines... something berating them as the cynical entrenched Washington politicians, the naysayers who try to prop up a failing system instead of all of us working to create a new one, yada yada yada.  

He needs to hit that hard before something sticks.  Now, that being said, the campaign has done a good job answering the attack ads.  Clinton hit him on no policy... notice the last few days his speeches have a mix of rhetoric and policy.  Her attacks have made him better.  

I can't believe McCain is going to make the Experience attack his main platform.  Hillary couldn't make it work, why does he think he can?

[ Parent ]
for instance ... (0.00 / 0)
Here's a shot...

President Bush gave us an ill-advised war that is destroying our military, draining the Treasury, and damaging our reputation in the world.  Sen. McCain proposes to continue this war and occupation for a hundred years.  When our campaign calls for change, these are not empty words; this campaign is about something.  It is about nothing less than who we are as a people.

If you want to continue to flush two hundred billion dollars a year, or more than one thousand dollars for every family in America, down the Iraq rathole, then by all means, vote for Senator McCain.  He will give you more of the same.


[ Parent ]
Or perhaps? (4.00 / 3)
Experience doesn't mean anything unless you've shown you can actually learn from experience.
[ Parent ]
take the moment (0.00 / 0)
Now would be a good time for a key "one good idea" that would help any policy proposals work to enter the narative from Obama.

The criticisms offered by Clinton and McCain are a perfect entree for the Obama camp to wipe out any last rationale for the man not to be president, at least as offerable by his only competitors.

Just offer one idea. Not a detailed agenda, just a specific thought.

Any idea pisses somebody off, though, and there layeth the mystery of the Obama cloud. He seems to mean things without having specific ideas.

The interesting thing is, I'm pretty sure he can do it.  

[ Parent ]
Maybe Hillary can be (4.00 / 1)
McCain's running mate
What's very clear to me... (4.00 / 2)
Obama is defining the entire political season.  His two closest competitors are doing little more than barking from the cheap seats.  Its remarkable that these two titans of old now just look old.  This snapshot evening looks very, very good for Obama.  
[ Parent ]
Wisconsin Results by CD (4.00 / 1)
The Green Bay Press Gazette has the votes broken down by Congressional District here.

At my quick count, it looks like Obama will win the delegate race 42-32. Unless things change fairly dramatically, they will split the delegates 3-3 in the 1st, 3rd, 7th and 8th. Obama will win 5-3 in the 2nd, will probably win 4-2 in the 4th, and will win 3-2 in the 5th and 6th.

The numbers on statewide delegates might change a lot, but for now it looks like 15-11 Obama, for a 42-32 split. That's a solid win, but nothing like enough to dramatically change the overall delegate scenarios.

Spreadsheet (0.00 / 0)
Beats the spreadsheet by about 2 delegates.  I think that was among the closest to real life the campaign got.  
[ Parent ]
maybe not dramatic (0.00 / 0)
but it is a net gain of 4 over earlier Obama spreadsheet projections.

I have been updating his spreadsheet since it came out after Feb 5 and believe me, +4 here, +6 there, next thing you know, Clinton is like Huckabee, needing to believe in miracles, not math.

Visit DebateScoop for political candidate debate news and analysis.

[ Parent ]
Margin growing (0.00 / 0)
The margin of victory appears to be growing in Wisconsin. Madison and Milwaukee are still coming in and Obama won those big. I think we could see at 17 point margin or so by the end of the night.
It's over folks (4.00 / 1)
I don't mean formally, of course. This thing could officially go quite far down the road. But this nomination has effectively ended. We are going to see in the run-up to and the aftermath of 3/4 an Obama surge in both media coverage, state polls, and SD leakage. By the time that OH and TX finally vote, Obama will be for all intents and purposes the favorite, making an HRC delegate comeback essentially impossible.

It's a slow-motion beatdown.

They are Clintons (4.00 / 2)
They don't die quietly.  Don't let up and DON'T take the foot off the throat.  That happened in NH and we all know what happens.  She is a damn fine politician, never forget that.
[ Parent ]
granted (0.00 / 0)
It's safe to assume she's going to fight like hell. What's most interesting to me is that it has suddenly become very difficult to envision any winning path for HRC.  
[ Parent ]
Obama STILL hasn't lost a night in delegates (4.00 / 2)
Even now!!  

He has tied, narrowly won, and won, every single night of delegate contests.

Landslide again? (0.00 / 0)
CNN has with 83% reporting 0:58% C:41%.

The pollsters way underestimated the Obama victory again, and this time it had nothing to do with African American turnout.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

Isn't It Odd (0.00 / 0)
I still find it fairly interesting that the momentum Obama should have by now has not been picked up in large states like TX and OH. This race has been a hard battle of state-by-state; I was thinking the polls in the upcoming events would reflect Obama's February Smackdown a little more distinctly?
I think it will take a bit longer to sink in (0.00 / 0)
... but I'm sure that the Texas numbers will shift in Obama's favor.  There are lots of Democrats who like both candidates, but really want a winner, someone who will beat the Republicans in November.  Hillary is not looking like a winner.

You can't lose 10 in a row without having everything erode.

[ Parent ]
Im not sure your right... (4.00 / 1)
Frankly, the polls have been closing over the last week.  So he is gaining in momentum.  Prepare to see it get closer.  
[ Parent ]
It has picked up in TX (4.00 / 1)
They are within 2% in the latest polls.  The voters and delegates are concentrated in the cities, Houston, Dallas their suburbs and Austin and that's where Obama is strongest.  

Fplks in TX say it is close to trending to Obama.

Demographics in WI are close to OH, so why think Hillary will get the 20% win she needs?

The Clintons are evidently (per Fineman and Andrea Mitchell) discussing how much to go negative, since they seem to believe that prevented a worse blowout in WI.  They think if they can just hang around until May or June, Obama will self-destruct (or they will damage him enough).  The party elders need to go to Hillary and say enough if she loses one of the big states on March 4.

But I think it is being shown that negative attacks backfire if the proponent already has high negatives.

Obama needs to stress that he is older than Bill Clinton (who had no national experience at all) and JFK when they became Pres.  He can work with the military--why would one think not?  He has put much more meat into his speech than previously.  I think it's time to lay off the hope part a bit and put nore stress on where he wants to take the country.  Energy independence, health care for all, educational opportunity, etc.  he put much of that in tonight, but needs to streamline a little.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

[ Parent ]
Wisconsin (4.00 / 1)
Obama won every congressional district in the state, including the 8th, which encompasses Green Bay.  Obama won the 8th by 56 to 43.  This part of Wisconsin is much like the whiter decaying industrial parts of Ohio -- many closed paper mills and struggling cookware factories.  There are very few blacks in the 8th, probably more indians than blacks.

WI-4, which I grew up in is, basically, Milwaukee, which is a lot like Cleveland.  It has a large black population and a large white working class as well.  It is by far the most Democratic district in the state.  Obama won the 4th by 69 to 30.

WI-2 includes Madison, which means students faculty and staff from UW, as well as all the state bureaucrats.  To a certain extent, WI-2 is similar to the area around Columbus.  Obama won WI-2 by 66 to 33.

WI-1 includes Racine, Kenosha and Janesville and WI-6, which includes Appleton, Oshkosh, Manitowoc and Sheboygan -- all old industrial cities hit hard by trade policy induced de-industrialization and not very many African Americans.  There are many parts of Ohio like WI-1 and WI-6.  Obama won WI-1 52 to 47, his narrowest margin of any Wisconsin CD and WI-6 by 55 to 44.

Finally, there are some major dissimilarities between Wisconsin and Ohio.  The upstate areas -- WI-3 and WI-7 are very rural, similar to Minnesota and Iowa.  There is almost nowhere in Wisconsin that is like to Cincinnati, which is practically like the south, but is also industrial, hosting Proctor & Gamble.  And southeastern Ohio -- the Portsmouth area -- is for all intents and purposes Appalachia, the Virginian parts of which went heavily for Clinton.  At least they did a week ago.

[ Parent ]
Ohio is stubborn as hell... (0.00 / 0)
...seriously, this place drives me nuts!!

I can't believe the cool reception I'm getting from Democrats here to the Obama candidacy...  My mom is about as liberal as one could get, and she wanted Mitt Romney to be president!!  That's just messed up!

I think the reason why the message of hope doesn't resonate well here in Ohio is that things have gotten so bad in Ohio, that people have lost all hope.

There is another issue that pervades, at least, northeast Ohio.  We have some serious racial issues here.  Greater Cleveland (not just the city, but the suburbs, too) is the most segregated metropolitan area in the country.  The east side of Cuyahoga county is 80% African American, the west side is 10% African American (if that!).  There is a significant amount of racial tension here (much more than is typical for an urban/suburban environment), and I'm sure in the rest of the state, too...  

I hate to say it, but I think that is also playing a role here...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
Whoa (4.00 / 1)
My mom is liberal as all get out too and she was just about in love with Mitt Romney! What kind of bewitching...
[ Parent ]
Your moms (0.00 / 0)
Your mothers need to pay closer attention.
[ Parent ]
I grew up in Dayton (4.00 / 1)
There's a lot of race stuff goin on in Ohio. It'll be harder for Obama there because of it.

But I always think of Mark Twain when it comes to Ohio, who may have said:


"When the end of the world comes, I want to be in Cincinnati because it's always twenty years behind the times."


[ Parent ]
Goodnight, Moon (4.00 / 1)
Obama will be ahead by 150 pledged delegates by tomorrow morning. Can Hillary make that up in TX, OH, and PA? No. No she can not. If she wins by 15% in each of those states, she won't make up half of that. The superdelegates will realize this; they will act accordingly. This race is not going to last until Pennsylvania.
Look at the margins (0.00 / 0)
Most polls had Obama up by about 5 points in Wisconsin. Now it is looking like he will win by 17 or so.

Given that split, how comfortable can Hillary be by leads of 5-9 points in Texas and Ohio?

Obama Picks Up 2 Supers.. (4.00 / 1)
Both Reps. Kind and Kagen (CD 3 and 8 in Wisconsin) pledged to cast their superdelegate vote with the winner of their districts. Obama won them both, so that is 2 more delegates to add to his total.  
While I am Gratified - but SD's to overall winner please. (0.00 / 0)
That Obama is blowing this out of the water, I only predicted  56% to Obama. And I am happy that the race is coming to a close.

I would prefer however that SD's would commit to supporting the winner of the entire process. The compound delegate leading, popular vote winning, state winning, candidate who won -- period.

I also support the The National Popular Vote bills which would commit states to allocate all their Electoral College Votes to the winner of the National popular vote. The act becomes effective in a state when enough states pass the bill to make it a reality, ie produces 538/2 + 1  Presidential Electors, from participating states.  

--

The government has a defect: it's potentially democratic. Corporations have no defect: they're pure tyrannies. -Chomsky

[ Parent ]
And Sen. Feingold said... (0.00 / 0)
...that the winner of the primary would have a very persuasive impact on his super-delegate vote.  Russ Feingold is the greatest US Senator and I sure hope he is with the new generation of leadership.
[ Parent ]
Gwen Moore in WI-4? (0.00 / 0)
If she hasn't already pledged for Obama (sounds like a goddamn sorority) I'd be surprised if she doesn't.
[ Parent ]
OUCH! (0.00 / 0)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

"As Ken Vogel reported for Politico, Buffenbarger "compared Obama with 'Janus, the two-faced god' of Roman mythology. He called him 'silver tongued' and a 'thespian' and 'the man in love with the microphone.'"

"He's not just a trained thespian, he's a terrific shadow boxer. You know the type. Outside the ring, he pretends he can float like a butterfly and sting like a bee," he said. "But Barack Obama is no Muhammad Ali. He took a walk every time there was a tough vote in the Illinois state Senate. He took a walk more than 130 times. That's what a shadow boxer does. All the right moves, all the right combinations, all the right footwork, but he never steps into the ring. He walks away from the fight.""

Fuck Him (0.00 / 0)
Fuck Buffenbarger... He's a jackass.
[ Parent ]
Knockout (0.00 / 0)
Obama isn't walking away from the primary fight. He's walking away with the primary fight.
[ Parent ]
Nomination Over Sooner Than Later (0.00 / 0)
With this blowout in WI and assuming a HI victory for Obama, the nominations is over, probably sooner than later. The media will have 2 weeks to think about this victory so even they will come to some obvious conclusions: First, the exit polls in WI showed that voters clearly believed Obama to be the more electable candidate. Of course, these further wins only reinforce that conclusion. That is the main reason for his momentum. Superdelegates will see this as well, and in the next two weeks will start to go his way. It is obvious to everyone that Clinton can't possibly overcome his lead in pledged delegates or his lead in the popular vote which now approaches 1 million. WI added another 150,000 to this lead. So his momentum will build because of this electability perception and he will win Texas. Certainly, with a TX win it will be over no matter what OH does. Also, from now on, even in the debates, he will mainly be addressing McCain and not Clinton in order to appear 'presidential' and not devisive. Just like McCain is no longer addressing Huck. By then even the press will realize it is over.
I am from Ohio..... (0.00 / 0)
Obama will not lose here.  Period.  People here are Clinton democrats by name recognition only.  We have more african americans and are more progressive than Wisconsin.  If Obama won Wisconsin by 17, he'll win Ohio by 20.

I think he will win the delegates for sure in Texas, but I think the popular vote there is a taller order because of the hispanics.

3 Reasons factor into my analysis
1. Ohioans are much more sexist than racist in my opinion.  They are Bill Clinton democrats, not Hillary Clinton democrats.
2. The moment the electorate here start tuning in, Obama has won 9 or 10 straight.
3. Obama is leading McCain in the November matchups while Hillary is getting beat, and the independent vote is HUGE here.  Obama has won that consistently 2 to 1 this primary season.

Independents, African Americans, and White Males will be his coalition.

http://www.politicalinaction.com

Texas will go to Obama (0.00 / 0)
The energy is here.  Houston and Dallas have been rapidly turning blue on the strength of the African American vote.  There is a good deal of new energy among AA voters in these areas.  Obama has also picked up some important Latino endorsements.  My congressman Chet Edwards, who also represnets Bush in Crawford, endorsed Obama this week.  This is fairly telling.  I suspect that Texas is going to go strongly enough for Obama that Clinton may withdraw before March 4.
from the Washington Post (0.00 / 0)
Clinton's campaign has focused its attention over the last few days on exposing similarities -- in some cases exact replicas -- between Obama's speeches and those of Mass. Gov. Deval Patrick. Clinton pointed to the media for the spate of stories about Obama's speech, saying on Tuesday that "it's not us making this charge, it's the media."

In fact, two days in a row, Clinton advisers went to great lengths to circulate stories about what they described as Obama's plagiarism. "Have you seen this?" was the subject heading on an e-mail spokesman Phil Singer wrote advertising a set of videos the campaign posted on YouTube. "Sen. Obama put himself out as a great orator, and so when he is found to be lifting passages of a speech from another elected official, it is significant," Howard Wolfson, a senior Clinton adviser, said in a conference call with reporters.

----
Putting up YouTube videos, pushing a story from them, and then blatantly lying to the public about it?  Then for the fourth primary in a row just pretending those primaries never happened?  "Forgetting" to thank supporters and hard-working volunteers in four primaries straight?  And then thanking a marching band?

VERY bad form.  The woman is sick.  MAJOR character flaw.  And absolutely no class.

Hawaii Prelude / Wisconsin Aftermath Thread | 48 comments
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