| To my Obama friends who are full of joy, and are beginning to schedule trips to D.C. for the inaugural, I want to give some old man, don't count your chickens before they are hatched advice: it's not over yet. The Clintons are tough as nails, never give up, and get feistier and better when their backs are against the wall. They came back after Iowa to win New Hampshire; they came back after the Culinary Workers' union endorsement to win Nevada; they came back after the Kennedy endorsement to win Massachusetts. They were written off in the '92 primary fight, the '92 general, after the '94 election slaughter, after Monica Lewinsky. These folks are tough to beat. And Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are all states with many, many years of Clinton attention and history and relationship-building, with demographics that play pretty well for her. Don't forget that the media is looking for any excuse to keep this race going, and that we have some debates coming up, so any slip-up by Obama, no matter how small, will have consequences. I have a feeling that you Obama folks are backing the eventual winner, but you will need to keep your nose to the grindstone.
To my Clinton friends, who are gearing up their attack machine for a last all-out assault: your politics of pettiness strategy ain't working. And the results vs. rhetoric thing is not a winner for you, either- it's another version of the experience vs. change message that hasn't worked throughout this campaign. I know that Mark Penn's focus groups say that people are worried about Obama's experience and track record. The thing is, though, while they do have some concerns in that regard, when forced to pick, they are picking change and hope, not results vs. rhetoric.
The basic dynamic of this race is fundamentally wrong for Hillary Clinton: Obama is talking big, exciting things like hope and change and inspiration, she is playing gotcha. It doesn't work.
One trend that is telling: look at Chris' chart from yesterday. Obama hasn't underperformed compared to the pre-election polling since Super Tuesday. Yesterday in Wisconsin he added to that streak- the pre-election polls were an 8-point lead, and he won by 17. The enthusiasm of his base, the strength of his grassroots, and his better message are driving these big margins home.
In spite of all that I said in paragraph one about why this race isn't over, it is 100% clear that the basic message dynamic in this race overwhelmingly favors Obama. If my friends from Hillaryland continue on the path they are on, they are doomed to lose. |
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