Predictions Thread

by: Matt Stoller

Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 12:48


I have no idea what is going to happne, but my general rule of thumb is that the most annoying scenario is also the most likely scenario simply because I enjoy feeling sorry for myself.  So Clinton wins Ohio 54-46 and Texas by 51-49, though Obama will take more delegates in Texas because that system is crazy.  And then the campaign goes to Pennsylvania.

What do you think?

Matt Stoller :: Predictions Thread

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Predictions Thread | 43 comments
That (0.00 / 0)
would be annoying!

Do the pollsters, on average, count those who are voting for the first time as 'likely voters' in their models?

Cheers

I believe trend is favoring Clinton (0.00 / 0)
in both Ohio and Texas, although the delegate count in Texas will likely end up being a net gain for Obama. Not so in Ohio, were Clinton will gain. But on Tuesday night the press will report a winner on popular vote and not delegates, although MSM will likely remind everyone that pledged deleqates is what matters. I noticed that starting this morning, on Morning Joe, coverage was favorable to Clinton and beginning to question Obama more closely. Will it hold for Chris "I hate the Clintons" Mathews? Doubt it.
I've noticed the turn too (0.00 / 0)
I think this is a sign that Obama isn't sealing the deal. His supporters aren't helping IMO.  
[ Parent ]
Ooohh! Blame it on us! Yes! (0.00 / 0)
We are the mindless Obamabots! We are ruining Obama's chances! We are walking like zombies over a hill with pitchforks in our hands, upside down, waitin for instructions from our Messiah. We eat our cereal with forks.

If it weren't for you, oh brave truth teller, we would have taken over and ruined things by now! Thank you, thank you!  

[ Parent ]
I am blaming on you as group (0.00 / 0)
you put him in  a straight jacket that will hurt him not just now, but in the GE. Your version politics isn't sustainable reality.  
[ Parent ]
I think Clinton had a big Bump on Friday, buts its dying down (0.00 / 0)
Obama will probably win TX I bet, by about 5-8 points.

The Politics of Bruno S.

[ Parent ]
I think Clinton will win bigger in TX (0.00 / 0)
Buyer's remorse re Obama is starting to rear its head.  
I'd give it a 30% chance Clinton keeps going if she (0.00 / 0)
squeeks out a Texas win.  I would be surprised if the delegate math doesn't kick in within a few weeks, and the superdelegate start a serious move to Obama.  

That said, I'd still be surprised if she wins TX, considering Obama's early voting lead, his ground operation, and his tendency to perform badly over weekends in polling.

The Politics of Bruno S.

God I Hope Not (0.00 / 0)
I'm hoping Obama wins Texas by about 5 and narrowly loses Ohio by about 2, coming out with a delegate lead of 12-20 for the day.  I really am ready to get this primary behind us, we need to focus on John McCain.
Good God this needs to end (4.00 / 1)
I think that if she wins both, you will have people like Richardson and Biden(?) and Edwards(?) come out and say that this has got to end.  She would have to win every one of the remaining races by 70%...It is over...the longer this goes on the better this is for the Republican party and McCain.  She has no way of catching him in the pledged delegate count.  Zero...they will not talk about this because it is a FACT.
Okay if you say so (0.00 / 0)
but I noticed with many of you that the math keeps changing. No dog in the race, but I am taking note of who is bs'ing.
[ Parent ]
For shits and giggles (0.00 / 0)
I'll say you're right in those numbers for TX and OH.  But after a few victory laps in the media, everyone wakes up to the fact that she has not advanced herself on the road to a nomination in any significant way .  It's at that point that party folks start to see the writing on the wall as the only hope for a Clinton is a destructive battle over supers and seating delegates.  Behind the scenes, phone calls and emails will start to be returned less quickly, donors excuse themselves from events, etc.  Nothing dramatic, but a slow and steady erosion of support from Clinton Dems who just don't have the stomach for the fight they'd need to mount to take the nomination.
Amusingly, (0.00 / 0)
my rule of the thumb is the same. As for my predictions, "whatever SUSA said". Which lines up pretty closely with yours.
Predictions (0.00 / 0)
Obama squeaks by in the Texas primary by 1-2% and Clinton wins Ohio by a healthy 8-9%.  Obama then dominates the Texas caucus by 15-20% as judged by state delegates and everyone is confused.
My predictions (0.00 / 0)
I've pulled and updated these from my predictions diary I posted a couple days ago.

Texas: Obama 55% HRC 45%; Obama DM +30
Ohio:   Obama 53% HRC 47%; Obama DM +10
VT:      Obama 67% HRC 33%; Obama DM +4
RI:       Obama 51% HRC 49%; Obama DM +1

sorry (0.00 / 0)
'DM' means delegate margin.
[ Parent ]
Very optimistic there (0.00 / 0)
Just sayin'
[ Parent ]
You should've seen 'em (0.00 / 0)
before the adjustments :)
[ Parent ]
My predictions (0.00 / 0)
Obama wins Texas going away 57-43.

Ohio is the night's Missouri (the polling is eerily similar), and while I'll predict a 1 point Clinton win, it could go either way.

Clinton End Game is perilous (0.00 / 0)
Clinton will be farther behind in pledged delegates on Wednesday.

Her end game, if she stays in the race, will be to go to the convention and try to take the nomination away from the first African-American to earn it.

She cannot survive November with that primary endgame. African-Americans will not return and vote for her in significant numbers.

Clinton is depending on D.C.-centric media, on reporters who came of professional age during her husband's administration, to help her overcome this devastating consequence.

And, by the way, the Texas system is balanced to give everyone an even shot. Whatever biases there are, they are due to the unique circumstances of these candidates areas of support, and Obama's organizational advantage.

The difference (0.00 / 0)
Between the two candidates in terms of down ballot strength is huge.  Especially in places like Texas that stands to make big inroads, not just against Republican domination but also against an archaic good old boy network in the TDP that is likely to crumble under the pressure of minority empowerment.  As the voting demographic as been changing very rapidly in places like Dallas and Houston I suspect that poll numbers coming out of Texas may be misleading.

And one more thing, Clinton is doing robo calls in Texas encouraging people to show up to caucus at 6:30 when caucuses start at 7:15.  That is just pathetic and it is likely to backfire.

[ Parent ]
NAFTA Gate (4.00 / 1)
I think regardless of what happens Hillary should stay in it.

The NAFTA gate story is just now finally starting to seep into US main stream media, even though I knew it was true because CTV is credible plus I went through Obama's actual trade policy positions.

I have something I want to point out that Goolsbee said in a denial of the denial (arguing over wording now that the memo has been found that was inside the Canadian embassy)

From ABC

On NAFTA, Goolsbee suggested that Obama is less about fundamentally changing the agreement and more in favour of strengthening/clarifying language on labour mobility and environment and trying to establish these as more `core' principles of the agreement

Folks, labor mobility means guest worker Visas and has nothing to do with worker protections, which is for a set of minimum standards of labor protections in other nations.  Worker protections are not about trading people as part of a trade agreement.  This is a separate and highly desired by the corporate cheap labor lobby and nation-states wishes to trade people as services and per trade agreements.  This will put the race to the bottom on steroids if corporations are allowed to trade people via trade agreements.

This statement implies they want to obtain more guest worker Visas, which is a well known global labor arbitrage vehicle.

That will make conditions for US workers much, much worse
and the history of guest worker Visas is one of much lower wages and worse exploitations.

Hillary should stay in because as people start examining Obama and his real policy positions I think they are going to have a serious case of buyer's remorse
and she should also stay in to push better policy.

I never thought I would see the day when I would be hoping for Hillary Clinton to stay in a race to push policy more towards a Progressive/Populist platform and so this says to me how bad it is.  I shake my head at this perception and now am wondering why Progressives did not plain draft someone to run way back when.  

NoSlaves.com  


The Economic Populist

SUSA poll is out (0.00 / 0)
The newest SUSA poll has Clinton ahead by 10 points in Ohio (54-44) and Obama ahead 49-48 in Texas.  I was hoping Obama would win decisively in Texas and get within a few points in Ohio and end this thing, but it doesn't look that way.  The Clinton camp appears more confident than they did last week which suggests to me that their internal polling shows a decisive win in Ohio.

I'll go with Matt's prediction, it looks about right to me.

Let's just hope that Clinton's net delegate gain is small and the super delegates start trying to end this thing.

this is very frustrating (0.00 / 0)
a 1% victory in TX is decisive because it's not just a Clinton loss, its a 16% under-performance for Clinton. Its the same as a 16% loss. Somehow in all this the need for 15% victories in TX and OH is being put by the wayside. She has no grounds on which to continue if she can not pull of big victories in those two states. Not to mention a 1% victory is another check in the L col for HRC. Who cares what Hillary thinks is a win, in her book she doesn't seem to need to win anything, just convince her friends that she should be the nominee. the narrative trends today are ridiculous.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare
[ Parent ]
It has certainly been a good weekend for Hillary (0.00 / 0)
I say she takes Ohio by 13, Texas by 7, RI by 10.  Obama takes Vermont by 15.

There are early indications that the media worm has turned in this race.  Obama certainly has a very committed core group of voters, but past them I think his support is a mile wide and an inch deep.  Another couple of weeks of bad news cycles and he could be trailing by enough in national polls to make uncommitted super-delegates give Clinton a serious look.

It's three in the morning. (0.00 / 0)
The red phone's ringing.  Who should pick it up and tell Hillary that Texas is lost?  Hillary wins by 10 in Ohio and loses Texas by a whisker.  Who cares anymore?  McCain is getting a free ride while the two Dems keep dancing and jabbing.  No heavy blows, but just enough to hurt the other's chances in the general.  Tens of millions of dollars that could be used to frame McCain being used to frame each other as lying sacks of sh...  Great! And now they're talking about bringing Florida and Michigan back.  Great!  John McCain must be laughing his ass off.  If this goes into June maybe they should just flip a coin, cause that's all they'll have left after spending another fifty or sixty million.  
Clinton won't ever drop out (0.00 / 0)
I predict Obama takes Texas by 8 points and Vermont by 20 points. Clinton wins Ohio by 3 points and Rhode Island by 6 points. BUT Clinton stays in the race all the way to the convention. And if she isn't able to win the nomination at the convention by bribing superdelegates with promises of positions in her administration and by getting the beauty contests in Michigan and Florida seated then she will declare that the nomination has been stolen from her and will run on an independent ticket in the general election because she doesn't care about the Democratic party. This is her election and she isn't going to let a bunch of latte drinking activists, independent voters, and states that don't matter take it from her.
What hogwash (0.00 / 0)
Bill and Hillary Clinton have been Democrats for over 40 years.  They both have unimpeachable party loyalty records and have campaigned and raised money for many, many fellow Democrats.
[ Parent ]
Texas (0.00 / 0)
My operatives in Texas tell me that it looks very good for Obama down there.  I'm pretty confident that he is going to win that one.  I hope he does well in Ohio too, because I want this thing to be over sooner than later.  The notion that somehow Hillary is going to win this by gaining the support of the superdelegates in spite of the results of the various state primaries has the potential to tear the Party apart.  The reckless way in which Hillary appears willing to take us down that road has reduced my opinion of her even further.
I'm thinking (0.00 / 0)
A VERY narrow win in Texas for Obama mostly because of early voting that favored him. About as close as Missouri though. Big win in delegates though due to the system.

Ohio will be won by Clinton maybe 53-47.

Net result will be a gain of close to 25 delegates or so for Obama. Big wins in Wyoming and Mississippi will put Obama's pledged delegates lead at about 200. By Penn the supers will be tied up but Clinton might still try out of desperation. Obama will be able to focus his entire powerful activist support in Penn though and will absolutely CRUSH her. She will have to bow out by then and it will probably be a Obama/Clinton ticket by May fighting against McCain. Sucky but probably the end result.

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power

Best guess in popular vote (0.00 / 0)
Is what you say in this comment.

Matt's guess is the best Clinton performance.  But I'd stay with your guess, if I had to put money down.

Note that even that best performance, doesn't really help her in the delegate count.

[ Parent ]
Yep. (0.00 / 0)
No one really can project. It seems as if there is a late swing to Clinton which unfortunately seems due to fear mongering. However I've seen early voting exits that indicate a 54-46 lead for Obama. Those are just unofficial exits for early voting but I think he will have won early voting and that will put him over.

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power
[ Parent ]
2/2 split (0.00 / 0)
Vermont: Obama by 15
Texas: Obama by 5
Ohio: Clinton by 5
Rhode Island: Clinton by 10

In the metagame, if Obama wins the TX popular vote by any margin, the party power structure drops the hammer on Hillary.  Either she concedes, or the DNC supers and party elders move en masse to Obama, starts treating him as the presumptive nominee, and freeze her out during the Pennsylvania Interval.  By the time we get to PA, her funding has dried up and the media cycle is all about Obama vs. McCain.

You can't ignore past trends (4.00 / 1)
Nationally, things have been going Obama's way. He's leading in national head-to-head polls, is coming off of a 11 race win streak, and has regularly out preformed the polls. I don't think we're going to see another New Hampshire here tomorrow night. I think we're going to see something more like Wisconsin.

Texas: Obama 56, Clinton 44
Ohio: Obama 52, Clinton 48
Vermont: Obama 60, Clinton 40
Rhode Island: Clinton 56, Obama 44

Clinton wins one state and drops out March 5th.

Put it in three-inch letters... (0.00 / 0)
I'm here on the ground in Texas and the differences between the campaigns are striking.  The energy and attendance at the Obama rallies is far superior to that at the Clinton rallies.  (I have been to both.)

And, Matt, there's nothing "crazy" about a system that rewards areas of the state that exercise their franchise and participate in high numbers in our democratic process.

See http://www.lonestarproject.net...

Put it in three-inch letters: Obama will win the popular vote in Texas, take the majority of the pledged delegates, and clean up at the precinct conventions (read: caucuses).

I was at Obama's Texas Campaign HQ yesterday making calls and the response I was getting makes me feel great about our turn out on Tuesday.  Obama is energizing the base and attracting new voters.  That's a formula for success in the general.

If Clinton refuses to read the writing on the wall come Wednesday and puts herself above her party, she can kiss the position of Senate Majority Leader goodbye.  (I'd much rather see Dodd get it anyway, as he's staked out courageous positions and stood up for the Constitution rather than enabling our imperial president with the likes of Kyl and Lieberman.)

FWIW, my prediction (0.00 / 0)
  Clinton slaughters Obama in Ohio. Obama's NAFTA meeting with Canadians was perhaps the stupidest move in the history of political campaigning -- Hillary is extremely vulnerable on NAFTA, and Obama just punted away any advantage he had on the issue. Brilliant.

 Clinton wins Texas by 5-8 points. Negative campaigning and fearmongering works. Obama might want to give it a try if he wants to win this thing. Does he?

 Clinton wins Rhode Island by 10.

 Obama wins Vermont by 14.

 The media narrative is overwhelmingly pro-Clinton, as it's been the last week. Obama feels pressure to drop out by party elders, he does, Clinton loses by 20 to McCain. And doesn't mind. Versailles wins, which is all that matters here.  

 

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

Come on folks! (0.00 / 0)
Have you no guts? Most of your predictions look like they were pulled straight from the poll averages. Do you really think they've got it right now after undershooting Obama's support fairly badly and consistently since SC (and especially since 2/5)?

Who's with me? This time tomorrow night half of you guys are going to be in here saying you really expected an Obama win deep down, the other roughly half will be saying how surprised you are and how much the polls suck and me and the 3 or 4 other sane people will be hooting and hollering and shooting our guns in the air and the whiskey will flow as we taunt you and all your grandmothers, who smelled of elderberry wine!

Now go away or I shall taunt you a second time!

Predictions Thread | 43 comments
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