Prelude To Results Thread

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 16:27


Here are the poll closing times:

Vermont: 7 pm eastern
Ohio, 7:30 pm eastern
Rhode Island, 9 pm eastern
Texas Primary 9 pm eastern
Texas Caucus 9:15 eastern start time

Here are my predictions:

Vermont: Obama 63%--36% Clinton
Ohio: Clinton 54%--44% Obama
Rhode Island: Clinton 55%--44% Obama
Texas Primary: Clinton 50%--48% Obama
Texas Caucus: Obama 38 delegates, Clinton 29 delegates

I imagine some useless early exit polls will be released soon, that will either unjustifiably raise or crush the hopes of some. I'll update those exit polls in this post when they come out. For now, in order to coherently blog until 3 a.m., I need to take a nap, which has become a tradition of mine on primary / caucus election days.

An interesting side note: if you use my pledged delegate count (Obama +161), and CBS's superdelegate count (Clinton +35), then Obama leads by five delegates even with superdelegates, Florida, and Michigan included (and even with Obama receiving zero delegates in Michigan). If Obama wins the most delegates tonight, then after March 11th he will lead in all counts even when all of those factors are included. The friendliest possible pro-Clinton count gives her a 15-delegate lead. So, if Obama is able to win 193 delegates tonight, which would be a net of 16, then the nomination campaign is functionally over.

Update: Here is some information on the early exit polls:

Early exit polls show independents are a sizable chunk of the electorate in presidential primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont.

In all those states except Rhode Island, Tuesday's primaries were ``open,'' meaning all voters could choose which party's contest to vote in. In Rhode Island, only registered independents could choose between parties.

The surveys for The Associated Press and television networks found self-described independents were about one in five voters in Ohio's Democratic primary, one in four in Texas, a third in Rhode Island and four in 10 in Vermont.

Note that even though Rhode Island is a closed primary, one in three voters still describe themselves as independents. Every single one of them is actually a registered Democrat.

Update 2: More exit poll information here.

Chris Bowers :: Prelude To Results Thread

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Prelude To Results Thread | 26 comments
Polling in TX is worthless (4.00 / 1)
With all the early voting, the TX poll movement in the last 48 hours is misleading. Add that to the the fact that Obama outperforms polling and I think he walks away with definitive victory in TX -- which is important. Hillary will try to make some ridiculous case that she won TX if she wins the actual vote (or either for that matter) even if she doesn't win in delegates.

And it'a ALL about TX. Ohio is unpredictable b/c of weather. Who is more committed to get out in the freezing rain or potential floods? Old or young? Black or white? That will be a question. But OH and RI may not matter that much. If Obama wins TX, he should be able to successfully make the case that Hillary failed to stay alive.

Bill Clinton to a TX audience: "If she wins in Texas and Ohio, she'll be the nominee. If she doesn't, I don't think she can be. It's all on you."  

Chris (4.00 / 1)
I've always admired your "super human sleep defying election day coverage" and your ability to call it as you see it on election night.

I think the sequence of tonight's returns will be interesting. Vermont coming first and likely giving Obama a 12th win in a row. If Obama's early voting organizing in Ohio and TX competed well with Senator Clinton's then the early returns could well look different than the last two days polling...and slow the network calls.

What I've told people who ask me is that I expect that Barack Obama will win the majority of delegates available today and compete strongly for delegates in every CD. I have no predictions about TX and OH other than I expect the final push of voting to make the races tough to call and perhaps cause some judges to keep polls open in some places.

Final exit polls will tell us a great deal. But let's not get tricked by leaks or first wave exit polls. It's happened too often for us to let that fool us again.

My out-on-a-limb call: (4.00 / 1)
Obama wins RI.  

me two n/t (4.00 / 1)

[ Parent ]
I honor your bravery (0.00 / 0)
And bow before it!  :)
[ Parent ]
My numbers (0.00 / 0)
Based on nothing but my gut:

In Texas, Obama will win the primary 54-46.
In Ohio, Clinton will win 53-47.
In Vermont, Obama will win 61-39.
In Rhode Island, Clinton will win 58-42.

Late tonight we will hear stories about "frank discussions" in the Clinton campaign. She will drop out tomorrow.

But regardless of what happens tonight, we're talking about when Clinton drops out, not if. The question is...does she drop out on March 5th, March 12th, April 23rd, May 7th, May 21st, or August 25th?

That's where the betting should be! (0.00 / 0)
I'm gonna go with... March 14th. After an awkward and uncomfortable week or so of her just sort of lingering...
[ Parent ]
193 delegates, got it (4.00 / 1)
That's why I love this blog.  Actionable intelligence.
Wanna know something absurd? (0.00 / 0)
This is the absurd thing: It matters tremendously whether it's Clinton or Obama who takes a narrow win in the TX popular vote, even though that has no bearing on the delegate count. My guess, in fact, is that it will make the difference between Clinton dropping out or going on.

With everything from their little color-coded maps to the check marks on their vote totals, the media have emphasized state-winning above anything else in their election coverage, particularly on election night. (Remember what a big deal it was to see who would win California? People were so distracted by CA that it took everyone a couple days to realize that Obama had actually won Super Tuesday.) This is despite the fact that winning states in the primaries counts for absolutely nothing.

I swear, I am getting the sneaking suspicion that media coverage of our electoral process is not always entirely rational...

I don't worry about Clinton dropping out (0.00 / 0)
IMO, the calls for Clinton to drop out are irrelevant.  She can answer the count after a split decision in TX & OH tonight, but at some point, either the referee (DNC/superdelegates) or her corner ($$ backers) will step in if she doesn't stay down. The numbers simply won't be there for her.

Meanwhile, I'm sure the local Democratic committees in Mississippi, Wyoming, North Carolina, Kentucky, W Virginia, and Indiana will be happy to see record turnout and a vast increase in Democratic activism if the Democratic nomination is still contested past tomorrow. How can this be bad, especially for the down-ballot races?  

And worries about Clinton tarnishing Obama's image?  Hell, that's good practice for the fall!  

[ Parent ]
endorsement (0.00 / 0)
Chris,

If things go as you predict, I hope that Open Left will advocate vigorously for putting an end to this contest.  I think that our Party is teetering on a cliff, and there isn't sufficient awareness of just what a awful trainwreck would follow if Hillary somehow manages to wrestle the nomination away in spite of Obama's lead.  We would lose the inpsired African-American constituency, and the millions of newly registered young voters, and many of our most valuable progressive activists.  I think the Clinton campaign is recklessly trying to push us toward the precipice.  I hope Howard Dean can exercise his influence and bring this to a sensible conclusion.

drinking game for this (0.00 / 0)
so this is a drinking game for Obamatons. Sorry Hillary fans. I can only  work with the material I know.

Ok, a drink for each time
1. Hillary suggests only big states count

2. That she says McCain is better than Obama

3. That she says her campaign is about you (stolen theme drink)

4. Tim Russert calls Clinton the "come back kid"

5. Hillary says "Karl Rove Playbook"

6. She bulges her eyes like its fright night.

If a Hillary fan wants to come up with some for Obama to go with this go for it. Here I'll get you started...

A drink for each time:
1. Obama says "hope"

y'all be the Hospital by 10pm with that one.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

ammended (0.00 / 0)
you have to drink the entire time she is bulging her eyes out. She always opens her speech with a very long period of bug-ation, so you better have a full beer ready.

Aside and Offtopic: FYI admins - these bold and italic tags are invalid markup. you should use strong and em not b an i.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

[ Parent ]
Here are mine (0.00 / 0)
(from another thread):

Texas: Obama 55% HRC 45%; Obama DM +30
Ohio:   Obama 53% HRC 47%; Obama DM +10
VT:      Obama 67% HRC 33%; Obama DM +4
RI:       Obama 51% HRC 49%; Obama DM +1

with DM = 'delegate margin'.

The pollsters, like the MSM, are too lazy to adjust their internals to take into account this Obama wave.

Exit Poll Junkie here (0.00 / 0)
Where can I get my fix?
predictions (0.00 / 0)
Here are my predictions. I am an obama supporter

OH: Clinton 56%, Obama 44%
TX: Clinton 52%, Obama 48%
RI: Clinton 51%, obama 49%
Vermont: Clinton 40%, Obama 60%

I'm always wrong (0.00 / 0)
But here goes.  
VT Obama by 19% (59%-40%);
OH Clinton by 4% (51%-47%);
TX Obama by 1% (50.5%-49.5%)and
RI Clinton by 8% (53%-45%).  
He wins the TX caucuses and delegates.

March 5 he picks up the 50 superdelegates.  With TX he has enough to make MI and FL irrelevant.

She drops out after his wins in MS and WY.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

my prediction (0.00 / 0)
Obama does much better than expected in Ohio, almost coming to victory, Obama does surprisingly well in RI, performs well in Vermont, and bucking conventional wisdom still further, Clinton does better than expected in Texas winning the popular vote by 4.5%

Vermont 64%O-36%C
Ohio 48%O-52%C.
RI 54%C-46%O
Texas 45%O-50%C

Clinton claims victory before the Texas caucus and moves on.


Prediction (0.00 / 0)
Ohio:  Clinton +9%
Rhode Island:  Clinton +15%
Texas:  Obama +1%
Vermont:  Obama +19%

Obama picks up a trivial number of delegates, but with the math clearly impossible, the drumbeat for her to quit rises fast, including with lots of superdelegates declaring for Obama.  But I don't think she'll quit before Pennsylvania.

In the "Tea leaves" department ... (0.00 / 0)
Interesting that the first data from the exit polls the AP chose to leak is the fact independents represent a huge chunk of the electorate in both OH and TX today ...

Mmmmmm

where (0.00 / 0)
where is the AP info?
[ Parent ]
Which comes as no surprise to (0.00 / 0)
you and me and, apparently, just about nobody else. Whatta we gotta do -- hit people over the head with a hammer? The Obama wave is NOT over, folks. It didn't just disappear into the void.
[ Parent ]
Here are my predictions (0.00 / 0)
a. Exit polls are off by at least 5 points.

b. Big gasbag talking heads, ignoring the fact that exit polls have been wrong EVERY TIME so far, will start talking as if the earliest exit polls give the final results.

c.  There will be one million words televised, across this land, in every tv station from New York to Los Angeles, about who "won" tonight - without anyone knowing the final delegate count.

d. One candidate will cut in on another's candidate speech tonight.

e. Oh, numbers?  You want numbers?  Why didn't you say so??
TX - Obama 51%, Clinton 49%
OH - Clinton 53%, Obama 47%
RI - Clinton 55%, Obama 45%
VT - Obama 63%, Clinton 37%.

f. The numbers above in "e" will be wrong.

this won't happen... (0.00 / 0)
Here's what I think will happen even though I'm usually wrong:

Obama shocks everybody by winning Ohio by 3 points. With the bad weather, only the truly committed will come out to vote and that's young Obama voters.

Obama will win Texas easily by something like 8 points. Clinton may win among voters who decided in the last few days, but he built up a large enough margin among early voters.

Obama will win Vermont huge. Duh.

Clinton will win Rhode Island by a hair. She will then declare Ohio, Texas, and Vermont don't matter and use her Rhode Island victory as a pretext to continue onward to Pennsylvania (notice how she never mentions Mississippi or other states that vote before Pennsylvania? I guess they don't count either).

Not that it makes any difference to this discussion (0.00 / 0)
But Texas polls close at 7:00 central, which is 8:00 Eastern, not 9:00.  
Prelude To Results Thread | 26 comments
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