Exit Poll Information

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 18:11


Update: Here are some head to head numbers:

Vermont: Obama 67, Clinton 33
Ohio: Obama 51, Clinton 49
Texas: Obama 51, Clinton 49
Rhode Island: Clinton 49, Obama 49

Take these for what they are worth, which is not very much at all. I am a bit surprised that Rhode Island is tied. But really, I'm not too surprised.

***

Here is some preliminary, third-hand, pre-spun information on the exit polls:

The Obama campaign expects to net seven or eight delegates out of the night from winning Vermont... they expect, delegate-wise, RI and Ohio will tie, and Texas, because of the caucus, will be a wash.

The Clinton campaign, having recieved leaked exit polls showing slim leads in both Texas and Ohio, is already challenging, in the press, the aggressiveness of Obama's caucus operation but is generally happy with early reports that turnout in Texas is high.

And some more exit poll info:

Early exit polls show independents are a sizable chunk of the electorate in presidential primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont.

In all those states except Rhode Island, Tuesday's primaries were ``open,'' meaning all voters could choose which party's contest to vote in. In Rhode Island, only registered independents could choose between parties.

The surveys for The Associated Press and television networks found self-described independents were about one in five voters in Ohio's Democratic primary, one in four in Texas, a third in Rhode Island and four in 10 in Vermont.

And yet more exit poll information can be found here. No specific head-to-head numbers, but I'm not really sure how useful those would be, anyway. Early voting has been huge, and that is not included in the exits. Also, early exit polls tend to shift quite a bit from final exit polls.  
Chris Bowers :: Exit Poll Information

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Exit Poll Information | 13 comments
Early voting (0.00 / 0)
Has there been any solid polling of early voting numbers? All I have seen is a few polls of a couple hundred people with high margins of error that give conflicting results.

Do we know who won the early voting in each state?

I don't think so. n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
TX independents (0.00 / 0)
The surveys for The Associated Press and television networks found self-described independents were about one in five voters in Ohio's Democratic primary, one in four in Texas, a third in Rhode Island and four in 10 in Vermont.

The Survey USA sample had O:49 C:48.  But only 1 in 10 were independents.  They broke 55-41 for Obama.

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

I don't see independents going to caucuses, but they might just pull the primary out for Obama.

site (0.00 / 0)
I know this is off topic, but is the site loading very slowly tonight, or is it just me?
MyDD Exit Polls (4.00 / 1)
Exit polls from MyDD  

Vermont: Obama 67, Clinton 33
   Ohio: Obama 51, Clinton 49
   Texas: Obama 51, Clinton 49
   Rhode Island: Clinton 49, Obama 49

   For the first set, Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

   The second set is similarly close - Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

At the least we won't see an early call for Texas or Ohio.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008...

Hillary and her LAME-DUCK campaign are going down. :-) (0.00 / 0)
It's just a matter of time.

Hillary's Math Problem; Forget tonight. She could win 16 straight and still lose.

[So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal.]

Slate's Delegate CalculatorEven if she wins tonight, Clinton can't grab victory without her friends' help.  

Why Primary Turnout Does Not Translate to General Election (0.00 / 0)
I suspect that the results today are why primary turnout results cannot be used to predict a general election outcome (as was discussed on this site a couple of weeks ago).  We are going to start seeing McCain supporters crossing-over to create mischief in our primary.  

It's time to end this thing...

John McCain hates children. Expose McCain!  

(mostly) good news (0.00 / 0)
Just saw on the tee-vee that Hispanics were 32% of the voters in Texas. Probably not good for Obama, unfortunately, but awesome news for Democrats - expecially in Texas.
Exit Polls? (4.00 / 1)
I prefer reading tea leaves.  They tend to be more reliable.  Of course the wind is blow'n out of the north in Texas today and mercury may be in retrograde so if the creek don't rise and we have pork chops for dinner, the'r ain't no tell'n who'll be two step'n into November.  
challenging (0.00 / 0)
that Obama is so not fair. not fair at all that he wins.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare
Exit Poll Information | 13 comments
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