Third results thread here. States with winners are in bold. Updates will appear below the tables. New threads will be created when the comment load becomes too high. First results thread here. Entering the night, my count shows Obama with 1,194.5 pledged delegates, and Clinton with 1,033.5
March 4th Primary and Caucus Results
| State |
Reporting |
Obama % |
Clinton % |
Delegates |
Obama Del |
Clinton Del |
| Ohio |
79% |
42% |
56% |
141 |
35 |
50 |
| Rhode Island |
98% |
40% |
58% |
21 |
8 |
12 |
| Texas Primary |
57% |
48% |
51% |
126 |
64 |
62 |
| Texas Caucus |
0% |
-- |
-- |
67 |
0 |
0 |
| Vermont |
84% |
60% |
38% |
15 |
9 |
6 |
| Total |
NA |
NA |
NA |
370 |
124 |
128 |
Update 10: Third results thread here.
Update 9--maybe Clinton can win the Texas primary: Austin and Dallas have reported a majority of their precincts now, and yet Clinton's lead continues to slowly eek forward. Maybe she can win the primary popular vote after all.
Update 8--Axelrod channels Mark Penn: Looks like the Obama campaign thought Clinton's strategy of saying that states don't count was such a good idea, that they would try it themselves. Axelrod:
On losing Ohio, he said it doesn't matter if the campaign didn't win since a Democrat will win Ohio regardless -- due to the economic situation there.
Bleh.
Update 7--Rhode Island Delegate Projection: Since none of the media outlets seem to be doing it, I went ahead and projected Rhode Island's delegates myself. It isn't hard. She won the at-large 3-2, the PLEOs 2-1, the seven-delegate district 4-3, and the six delegate district is either 4-2 Clinton or a 3-3 tie. I guess I should be frustrated that I had to do it myself, but that is one of the main reasons for the progressive blogosphere: we started doing what we were doing because no one else was. DIY rules!
Update 6--Texas Primary Delegate Projection: Burnt Orange Report is currently projecting the Texas primary to break 69 delegates for Obama, and 57 for Clinton. That could change, but it would be huge for Obama if it sticks.
Update 5--Clinton declares victory: Clinton declares victory. Pennsylvania, here we come. Oh wait--I'm already here. This is going to be crazy.
Update 4--on to Pennsylvania?: I have to think that with her decently sized wins in Ohio and Rhode Island tonight, Clinton will stay in no matter what happens in Texas. Rumors are swirling that some Clinton advisors want her to stop if he loses Texas, but I don't buy it. Or, at least I don't buy that as the majority opinion of the Clinton camp. Still, this is all speculation on my part, too.
Update--Clinton Wins Ohio: Took 'em long enough to finally call it. The margins in Cuyahoga just weren't there for Obama. Also, Clinton has edged ahead in the Texas primary popular vote. However, I do not expect it to last.
Update 2--Ohio delegate count explanation: Why is Obama ahead in Ohio delegates despite being down by double digits in the popular vote? First, it is because Clinton's strongest congressional districts tend to be four-delegate districts. In order to take a 3-1 advantage in those districts, she would need 62.5001% of the two-candidate vote. Generally speaking, she is instead coming in at 57%-61%. That results in a 2-2 delegate split, even in her best areas. Second, Obama's best areas, Hamilton and Cayahoga, have yet to report many votes. So, the popular vote will narrow. the still fluctuating popular vote means none of the statewide delegates can be counted yet. So, Clinton's statewide lead is not factored into the delegate count yet. Third, Obama's best districts tend to have six or more delegates in them. In order to win a six-delegate district 4-2, he only needs 58.34% of the vote. So, his bar is lower.
Update--Most cities yet to report: CNN has some great maps of Ohio and Texas that show which counties have yet to report. Generally speaking, the major cities are the places with the most outstanding votes. Cayuhuga (Cleveland) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) have 0% reporting. Dallas (where Obama lead by 30%) is at 4% reporting, Houston (where Obama leads by 24%) is at 1% reporting, and Austin (where Obama leads by 30%) is at 9% reporting. Obama also holds large leads in the counties directly surrounding those cities, and those counties have also reported few votes so far. Clinton is up by 9% in San Antonio, which is at 3% reporting.
Overall, I think Clinton looks set to win Ohio, while Obama looks set to win Texas.
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