Last month, in a poll taken from June 26-28, CBS produced a different kind of Democratic campaign trial heat. Instead of asking Democrats and Democratic leanings who they currently supported, they asked Democrats and Democratic leaning independents who they were enthusiastic about. Jonathan Singer blogged this poll at MyDD:
Thinking about the candidates now running for President, is there any candidate that you feel enthusiastic about? IF YES: Who is that?
There are already many candidates for the 2008 presidential election. Can you tell me the name of the candidate you’ve heard the MOST about in the news lately? [OPEN-END. RECORD FIRST MENTION ONLY]
Candidate
July 13-16
June 1-3
April 27-30
March 16-19
Clinton
42
32
41
37
Obama
22
20
23
24
Edwards
2
2
3
1
Richardson
1
--
--
--
Results for other Democrats were not listed, probably because they were even lower than Richardson. Combined results for top-tier Republicans and “other” candidates never exceeded 15%. Crosstabs among self-identified Democrats are actually even more favorable to Clinton and Obama, rather than less.
Given these numbers, can anyone deny that there is a connection between how often someone has heard about a candidate and the level of voter “enthusiasm” for that candidate? Clinton and Obama are clearly receiving far more coverage than anyone else, and thus have far more “enthusiastic” supporters than anyone else. Obama’s “enthusiastic” numbers are virtually identical to his “heard the most about in the news” numbers. Clinton’s “enthusiastic” numbers might be a bit lower than her mews coverage results, but that is not surprising given the right-wing obsession with the Clintons for these past two decades.
Right now, it is hard to imagine any other Democratic candidate competing with Clinton and Obama on a national level give the disparities in news coverage. If two thirds of the populace are reporting that they are hearing the most about Clinton and Obama, while only 1-3% of the populace is hearing the most about Edwards and Richardson, who do you think is going to come out on top in national polls of the candidates? With these numbers, it does not seem possible to question that the national media is trying to force the Democratic nomination to follow a two-person script.
But all is not lost for other candidates. It is not secret that what “early state momentum” actually describes is a way for gatekeeper media to unlock the keys to favorable and extensive coverage for candidates that had been previously shut out. Given this, one wonders if there is a potential disparity in the amount of early state momentum available to all candidates. In other words, one positive for campaigns other than Clinton and Obama to take from this data is that they probably have the potential for a much larger momentum boost from victories, or strong seconds, in states like Iowa and New Hampshire. Obama and Clinton might not have much to gain, except relative to each other, in the key early states. This is particularly heartening for Edwards and Richardson, who right now are the only two candidates trending up in Iowa (more on that later today).
