Wow. This is really happening. Possibly the most important, and certainly the most epic and dramatic, presidential primary contest of all time will take place in my backyard. The circumstances that led to Pennsylvania becoming decisive were just as unlikely and seemingly random as the circumstances that led to my becoming a long-term resident of Pennsylvania.
On at least three occasions, Clinton had a chance to finish Obama off: Iowa, South Carolina and Super Tuesday. Every time, the voters decided otherwise. On two occasions, Obama had a chance to finish Clinton off: New Hampshire and March 4th. Once again, the voters said "not yet." On every occasion, the frontrunner failed to finish the job, and the nomination campaign lurched forward. By the same token, I only ended up in Pennsylvania when, in January of 1997, a poem I wrote on the back of receipts at the bank where I worked earned me a fellowship at Temple University five weeks later. As an Upstate New Yorker, I had always planned on going to SUNY for graduate school, but the offer from Temple was just so good that I turned down both Stony Brook and my dream school, the University of Buffalo (don't snicker--if you know anything about avant-garde poetry, you know why UB would be the dream school for an avant-garde poetry obsessed, Upstate New Yorker). And for one reason or another, as time went on, I just stayed in Philadelphia.
I point this all out not to be egocentric (although that is probably a charge of which I am frequently guilty), but rather as an example of how this primary has accidentally resulted in a wide range of Americans unexpectedly finding themselves at the center of an epic political maelstrom. For example, the Pennsylvania for Obama campaign was started early last year by Josh Richards, a grassroots progressive from Upper Darby who has been central to many of our local progressive organizing efforts. A few months ago, Josh literally handed over the volunteer campaign he started to the national Obama campaign, and it still serves as the core infrastructure for Obama's efforts in Pennsylvania. As such, it isn't a surprise that Philly for Change, the local chapter of Democracy for America where Josh sits on the steering committee, tonight voted to endorse Barack Obama for President with 74% of the vote.
Philly for Change (once known as Philly for Dean) is an impressive local organization. Back in August of 2003, two weeks before Howard Dean's Sleepless Summer tour, it organized a 4,000-person rally for Howard Dean on Independence Mall. While that may not seem impressive by today's numbers, at the time it was groundbreaking in its enormity--the largest rally for a Democratic candidate in a primary in about three decades. Attending that rally was a turning point in my life, as it convinced me that the new, local, grassroots organizing efforts for Democrats I had read about online were absolutely for real (and so, I have spent the last four and a half years working in politics as a result). The rally was organized by many of my local progressive friends, the same early adopters who have since become leaders--even elected officials--in the local Philadelphia progressive scene. These were the people who helped translate the early energy of the progressive movement to a wider audience, and it is people like them around the country who made the current wave of progressive activism possible. They were the catalyzing energy behind a Malcolm Gladwell type tipping point for progressivism in America.
One of these early activists, Anne Dicker, was endorsed for Pennsylvania State Senate tonight by Philly for Change. Another candidate, Tony Payton Jr., a 27-year old member of the State Assembly who two years ago beat the local machine to take office, was the only incumbent who spoke tonight. More than ten other candidates, most of them running for State Assembly in the April 22nd Democratic primary (that's right, we have a full slate of progressive primary challengers for local office in Philly), also spoke to the audience tonight. The Hillary Clinton campaign sent a courageous staffer to make the case for her campaign. A friend of mine (also named Josh, but a different Josh) who is a district-level delegate for Obama in the second congressional district of Pennsylvania (the extremely Democratic, nine-delegate district where I live and which I partially represent at the state Democratic committee) spoke on behalf of the Obama campaign. These are now the activists who will play a large role in determining who becomes the next President of the United States.
I must say, while I was once worried about the nomination campaign dragging into late April, and while I still think it is important for the party that Obama win Pennsylvania, as I watched local democracy in action tonight I was hard pressed to think of a single negative about the extended campaign. At the Philly for Change meeting, there was some disappointment, but mostly everyone was just excited to have this chance. Every group of local progressives should get this sort of opportunity. I even find myself smiling about the Clinton activists in Western PA who posted in the open thread tonight. I just don't feel any animosity toward them at all--may the best activists win. In fact, I am excited that they are working for a Democratic candidate out in Western PA. Local activists deserve this chance. The local party needs this chance. Let's do this democracy thing, and send Pennsylvania progressive electoral activism through the roof. Pennsylvania might not even be a swing state anymore once this primary is over. As long as the campaign stays clean, it might even render all four of our new U.S. House Democrats safe, and put a couple more districts in the Democratic column. As Susan H and Hopeful in NJ wrote in the comments to the post below this one, thank you to Iowa for not choosing the frontrunner, and thank you to New Hampshire for not rubber stamping Iowa. Now, the rest of the country has a chance to take part in the process, too.
And so, we are off to the races. Along with my delegate friend Josh (a different Josh, who is also totally grassroots, and worked his ass off to earn his delegate spot), and Levana, an old activist friend of mine who I hadn't seen in two years (we once both were on the Philly for Change steering committee together, and tonight she stopped Johnny Dougherty, an opponent of Anne's in the State Senate campaign, to ask him why he endorsed Rick Santorum in 2006), I visited the Obama Philadelphia headquarters tonight. It was definitely the calm before the storm. The space, right near city hall, was enormous, well-organized and generally empty (it was 10:30 p.m., and the Project Runway finale was on). Right now, there are only two paid Obama staffers in Philly, both of whom reminded me of Josh Richards: very progressive seeming, Gen X, African-American men who you just knew had a ton of grassroots experience. Right now, there is no phone or internet (cell phones and local free wireless are sufficing), but within the next week a wave is certain to descend upon the office. And it was all started by a single, local, Philly for Change activist.
My initial take of Pennsylvania is that Obama will do very well in Philadelphia (at least 60% of the vote, and possibly 70%) and the "T" (mainly Central PA, sometimes dismissively referred to as "Pennsyltucky"), in concert with his coalition of the extremes (grassroots progressives and grassroots red state Democrats). Clinton will do well in Western PA (including the Pittsburgh metro area), Northeastern PA (Scranton / Wilkes-Barre / Hazelton and "The Office" country), and the Bethlehem / Allentown metro area. The decisive swing vote will come in the Philadelphia suburbs, which is just about the only growing area of the state. It is also a region trending blue very quickly, and has a lot of independents and Republicans who are voting for Democrats in general elections, but who can't vote in the primary unless they register as Democrats by March 24th. This three-week registration period could decide the election, since these "new" Democrats will favor Obama, while the currently registered Democrats probably favor Clinton. As the photo below the text shows, I gathered all my tools tonight to register new Democrats in my neighborhood so that they can be part of this historic event, too.
In the end, maybe it won't matter. Maybe the delegates will basically split down the middle, and Obama will continue to slog forward down the path of mathematic victory on which he currently seems headed. However, it will be an epic battle, and the same grassroots progressives who helped launch this movement will be right in the middle of it. On Friday, both Clinton and Obama will address the Philadelphia Democratic ward leaders, including my ward leader and fellow Division 27-23 committeeperson, Carol Jenkins, who I actually appointed as committeeperson back in late 2005. Now, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be personally requesting her support in our primary. It is grassroots mania here in Pennsylvania, and I am looking forward to it.
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