Democrat Bill Foster Takes Dennis Hastert's Seat Running Strong on Iraq, FISA

by: Matt Stoller

Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 21:47


( - promoted by Matt Stoller)

I think Bill Foster's got this one, with 88% of the precincts reporting he's holding on to a 53-47 lead and a 4300 vote margin.  There are only 10,000 to 15,000 more votes to count, so unless Oberweis takes 65-70% of the remaining vote, he can't win.  I find that scenario extraordinarily unlikely.

Update:  Foster is up 53-47 with 93% of the precincts reporting.  Unless Oberweis takes 9 out of every 10 votes, he's lost.  And that's not going to happen.

Congratulations to Bill Foster.  We have one more seat in the House, one more Democrat who said the following.

The President and his allies in Congress are playing politics with national security, and that's wrong.  Nobody is above the law and telecom companies who engaged in illegal surveillance should be held accountable, not given retroactive immunity.  I flatly oppose giving these companies an out for cooperating with Alberto Gonzalez on short-circuiting the FISA courts and the rule of law.

And this wasn't some one-off statement on national security; Bill Foster ran strong on Iraq the whole campaign, with several ads focused on withdrawal and the costs of the war.  This was a heavily Republican district that turned on an anti-war and pro-civil liberties message to a Democrat.

... I'm talking Bob Creamer, and he tells me that Moveon had 150 volunteers on the ground.  A whole lot of Republican seats are now in play.  

Update: The Beacon News calls it for Foster, as does CNN.  This is a big boon for Obama's coattail argument.

Matt Stoller :: Democrat Bill Foster Takes Dennis Hastert's Seat Running Strong on Iraq, FISA

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Democrat Bill Foster Takes Dennis Hastert's Seat Running Strong on Iraq, FISA | 113 comments
This is sweet. (4.00 / 2)
I am happy for the state of the Democratic party right now.  I have been such a willy-nilly Cassandra after Tuesday, but there is a reason to be happy tonight.

A Dem took the seat of the former Republican Speaker of the House!! That is pretty incredible.

Coattails. (4.00 / 5)
We can see this across the country with Obama as our candidate.  Great win for Foster, for Obama, and for Democrats.  
Have not seen that analysis..... (0.00 / 1)

.......could you provide a link please?

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.

[ Parent ]
Here's one link: (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]
I think... (4.00 / 2)
He's referring to the fact that Obama cut an ad for Foster, did a number of fundraising pitches and leant him some of his GOTV apparatus.  
[ Parent ]
If so, he's misusing the word coattail since that's not what the word (0.00 / 1)
 means.  
[ Parent ]
What's your definition? (4.00 / 2)
I don't think it's too controversial to argue Foster benefitted from Obama's success....
[ Parent ]
My definition wouldn't be to look at a state in which a (0.00 / 0)
very popular Senator campaigns for a guy in his home state. If this were say, some non Democratic state, especially considering what Obama's people have been arguing, then sure. But to say IL is a coattail is a stretch. What abot the message? I can go on. I am not taking away from the things he may have added, but coattails typically aren't a product of someone who isn't on the ballot unless it was Bush in 2006 in which case that was a referendum. Are you saying any of the dynamics I mention was present here?
[ Parent ]
It's a Republican district... (4.00 / 1)
Bush won there by 12 points in 2004.  You really don't think Obama stumping for this guy helped overcome a built-in Republican advantage?  
[ Parent ]
I really don't think you can make that argument (4.00 / 1)
given Obama is from IL. I am not saying he doesn't have any influence. I am questioning what one can extrapolate from his influence in his own state versus the rest of the country.  
[ Parent ]
Influence = coattails. That's what "coattails" means. (0.00 / 0)
How long his coattails are exactly-- ie, how his influences play out in other situations-- is anyone's guess. But he has been getting a little press outside of IL in recent months, from what I understand.
[ Parent ]
His approvals aren't the same as in IL or that district (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Webster: (0.00 / 0)
"the influence or pulling power of a popular movement or person (as a political candidate)"

Link: http://www.merriam-webster.com...

Certainly possible, though, to argue that Obama's coattails didn't mean much in this instance, though I think the composition of the district and the amount of the Republican investment might say differently.

[ Parent ]
As I clarify above this argument is problematic given the circumstances (0.00 / 0)
You would have a better case if it weren't in Obama's home state.
[ Parent ]
Claiming 'coattails' is completely (0.00 / 0)
unprovable. Far as I can tell, there's absolutely no way to prove causation. So if you're looking for empirical proof, then no.

But you seem to be saying that the Obama-coattails statement isn't even arguably correct. That's simply wrong. Although there's no way to know for certain, there's every reason to think that Obama's coattails are one reason Foster won.

Sure, Obama's coattails are stronger in his home state. Of course they are. Is anyone saying they aren't?

And, conversely, of course the challenge was harder in such a heavily Republican district, with so much money invested by the national Republicans. Of course it was.

[ Parent ]
Nope (0.00 / 0)
I will rephrase so that I am as clear as posible. We are talking about a Presidential candidate. So when someone talks about coattails one would expect the circumstantial evidence to come from some place other than the candidate's home turf.  Like I said, I would be more inclined to go "okay, they got a point' if it were say MO or OH or IA or MN or some other non-home state advantage.  It would tell me a lot more rather than homestate advantage. It would tell me that his arguments really are influencing people in the general. My main point is the whole definitional approach to coattails here-- I may have not explained it well the first time around. The idea that one can conclude anything about Obama's ability to appeal to GE voters o utside of IL isn't very strong to me because the evidence given is again in IL, a state where we already know he's very popular. This takes nothing away from him, but it also is designed to keep things in perspective about what we can extrapolate from what you already admit is a very difficult thing  for which to show causation.
[ Parent ]
Ironic (0.00 / 0)
You accuse others of trying to redefine things, and then do the same yourself. Coattails doesn't suddenly not count in your home area. If a popular Governor gets congressmen and state reps elected because of his/her popularity, that is still coattails, even if it happens in his/her home state/district/county/city. Coattails don't suddenly disintegrate when you go home.

Former Edwards Supporter, Obama Supporter since January 30, 2008
[ Parent ]
Okay- let's take back a step further in precision- I am discussing scope (0.00 / 0)
of meaning.  Yes, definitionally a governor appealing to voters in his homestate to get someone elected maybe argued as coattails.

BUT, that's not what y'all are trying to do here. There is a bit of hide the ball in the definition going on here with regard to scope. You are claiming because a popular senator may (key words may) have possibly helped in some way the guy i n his home state, that means something on the Presidential bid level for his coattails esle where. You aren't proving cause here.

One can't show that kind of causation. Popularity within the state to get someone elected tells us nothing about popularity outside of the state to get someone elected. That's the scope issue,a nd why definitionally the argument is flawed.

[ Parent ]
No (0.00 / 0)
what we're saying is that he helped a Democrat get elected in a Red district. Obama IS popular nationwide, and the fact that he managed to help get a Dem elected in a district much Redder than many other ones Democratic candidates are running in Nationwide is a good sign for what he can do in less conservative districts. No one is claiming that this is all Obama, and the majority of the credit OBVIOUSLY goes to Bill Foster, but you can't deny the bump Foster got in the recent SUSA poll, which came out a few days after Obama's ad started airing, and if he can do that in a district that hasn't elected a Dem since Watergate, think of what he could do in places like New York, where many of the Republicans are in Purple districts.  

Former Edwards Supporter, Obama Supporter since January 30, 2008
[ Parent ]
You simply can't extrapolate what you are trying (0.00 / 0)
extrapolate given the circumstances. I am tired of arguing this. We are at an impasse and I don't think there is more that i can add.  It would be like the time Clinton supporters were trying to tell me she can appeal to conservatives because she does so well in NY with Republican districts. Yes , they were correct. The numbers bare that out, but it simply doesn't add up to much outside of the state.  
[ Parent ]
Except (0.00 / 0)
Correlation doesn't equal causation

...Doesn't everyone learn that in high school?

[ Parent ]
Perhaps (0.00 / 0)
But nothing else happened besides that ad between the two polls. Honestly, by this logic, the very concept of coattails doesn't hold much ground, as most historical examples of it are not based by exit poll data, but rather are assumed (such as 1964, with LBJ's popularity and Goldwater's lack thereof correlating to a massive Democratic gain in congress along with LBJ's massive re-election).

Former Edwards Supporter, Obama Supporter since January 30, 2008
[ Parent ]
Nothing else happened? (0.00 / 1)
Nothing else happened?

Umm I can think of two things. The campaigns kept campaigning and the election happened.

People change their minds, undecideds are forced to make up their minds, people keep reading the paper, going to events,etc.

Its not like the campaign was put on hold after the ad ran.

[ Parent ]
Your argument only works (0.00 / 0)
if you ignore the fact that this is a VERY deep red district, with a Republican registration advantage, so the "blue state" image is irrelevant, and in fact misleading.

Former Edwards Supporter, Obama Supporter since January 30, 2008
[ Parent ]
So Republicans in IL, again Obama's homestate, (0.00 / 0)
are like Republicans in OH and FL and other races despite the fact Obama wouldn't have the same "we know this guy" appeal there?
[ Parent ]
Yes (0.00 / 0)
The Republicans are the same (Denny Hastert was very conservative), and Obama isn't exactly a newbie on the political scene. People in all parts of the country know him just as well as people in his home state, especially because of the '04 speech, so your argument makes no sense.

Former Edwards Supporter, Obama Supporter since January 30, 2008
[ Parent ]
Wait...all Republicans are the same? (2.00 / 2)
I don't know if this is Bruh's atrongest argument but, did you just deny that Republicans don't very by geography or beliefs?

Tell that the the fiscal conservatives in the west and the evangelicals in the south

[ Parent ]
Sorry for the typo's (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
If we're talking Oberweis (0.00 / 0)
He is not your standard Illinois Republican (which would be pro-business, somewhat more tolerant and less beholden to the religious right than your standard Republican).  He is a Tancredo Republican, who has run bigoted, anti-immigrant campaigns in many elections in Illinois in recent years.  Unsurprisingly, he's lost them all.

Still, I considered Hastert territory one Republican enough where even HE could win.  However, that has not proven to be the case.

[ Parent ]
Question (0.00 / 0)
1) How do we know Foster's message isn't the reason he won?

2) Because I know you're going to collapse down to "well Obama helped!" , which I don't deny. But since you're claiming he has coattails, how much more influential was Obama's coattails in this race as compared to any other Senator popular in his own state?

For example, my Senator John Ensign carried the current Govenor on his coattails during the last election and the Govenor won, doing better in traditionally democratic areas, they're republicans.

Does this seem to imply he has coattails in the state? Yes. Does this prove he has coattails nationwide? Does this show he can go into blue states and get conservatives elected? You tell me.

[ Parent ]
Answers (0.00 / 0)
Of course it is mostly Bill Foster. No one ever said otherwise. The only point is that Obama helped because of his popularity and support for Foster. There is no way in hell to know how influencial anyone's coattails are in the history of the country. There's no definite line between a candidate's personal ability to get elected and the coattails their receive from a popular superior. What we do know is that Foster gained in the polls after Obama ran an ad for him, and nothing else happened besides.

Former Edwards Supporter, Obama Supporter since January 30, 2008
[ Parent ]
Don't discount Oberweis (0.00 / 0)
He is unpopular, even among Republicans in Illinois.

Foster was an exceptionally strong candidate, Obama did help, and Oberweis was a horrible candidate.  This amounted to a perfect storm which led to a colossal Dem upset.

Also, I wonder what the impact of the Netroots was on this race.  I think Netroots enthusiasm for Foster has to at least account for something.

[ Parent ]
Let me add a point (1.00 / 4)
This changing definitions to fit one's own political arguments has been occuring a lot lately with regards to people's support of Obama. First, Bowers writes a diary about the evils of superdelegates that many Obama people supported when it looked like Clinton would try to influence them, and now that Obama also can't win without the superdelegates, the argument has shifted to- wellit should be the majority of pledged delegates (because others fear that he may lose the popular vote). Here we see anothe definitional shift to suit a candidate. I would be far more impressed if this were say in OH or FL or MO. No home team advantage, his name on the ballot and clearly the turn out was about his name.
[ Parent ]
Fuck off troll (1.33 / 3)
It was one thing to deny Obama's coattails, but now you're slandering and LYING about Chris Bowers. Bowers has ALWAYS said that the super delegates should go with whoever wins the majority of pledged delegates. This wasn't some "new argument" to make up for the "loss of the Popular vote" (which a) Obama is still ahead in, and b) is something Bowers has never mentioned, let alone argued against) You've now officially stepped into troll land, and should kindly fuck off.

Former Edwards Supporter, Obama Supporter since January 30, 2008
[ Parent ]
I am done with you (0.00 / 0)
You lost me when you call me a troll. You can say I got something factually wrong. but the attitude is bs.
[ Parent ]
What was that? (0.00 / 1)
Lack of coherent argument because you're a troll who got your shit busted? Yeah, that's what I thought.

Former Edwards Supporter, Obama Supporter since January 30, 2008
[ Parent ]
Jake good luck I am going to talk to others now (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Yes, and get your trollish shit smacked down by others n/t (0.00 / 0)


Former Edwards Supporter, Obama Supporter since January 30, 2008
[ Parent ]
It's you who spend too much time under the bridge... (0.00 / 0)
..........pal. The use of profanity is a certain indicator of Trolldom. The inabliity to carry on a heated discussion without ad hominem attacks and personal slurs also an indicator. Notice how you qualify on those two counts. Being stupid isn't a certain indicator but you've got that covered too dude.

Head on out to CheetoLandwhere you will feel right at home with other fascisti of that sad place.

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.

[ Parent ]
for fairness sake (4.00 / 1)
bruhrabbit also has to go to cheetohland

That's because it's bullshit  (0.00 / 1)
The Obamabots are spamming various diaries right now online.  
by: bruhrabbit @ Sat Mar 08, 2008 at 21:57
[ Parent | | Reply | ]

I see profanity ("bullshit") and name calling ("Obamabots"). And that was before discussion got heated.

[ Parent ]
ahahahahaha (0.00 / 0)
You accuse me of using ad hominem attacks and personal slurs (which I didn't since if you read my evidence, you would see, he was being lying troll, and was using a Republican talking point), and then call me "stupid." Seriously, I don't think I even need to do anything but point this out to refute your argument.

Former Edwards Supporter, Obama Supporter since January 30, 2008
[ Parent ]
How am I wrong about my point that on both mydd (0.00 / 0)
and this site you have been spaming? Basically in both cases you took over diaries about a particular canddiate's win to say its because of Obama. I know you don't see the difference, but imagine the rest of those who are reasonable can.
[ Parent ]
Ah, the false majority argument (0.00 / 0)
"The rest of those who are reasonable"

Well, sad to say, if this were the case, I find it odd that only a total or about 1-2 people besides you have been going against these arguments and trying to troll rate myself and others doing this, on here and Mydd.com. On the other hand, more people seem to be either not saying anything, or supporting our positions, many even recommending our comments. "The rest" isn't much, and being that no one seems to consider thanking Obama for helping a Democrat be elected spamming, except you and 1-2 other people, I'd say you are likely in the minority, and unless the rest of us bloggians are just completely hamstrung, you are likely the one lacking reason.  

Former Edwards Supporter, Obama Supporter since January 30, 2008

[ Parent ]
I am sorry but A Citizen is right about you Jake (0.00 / 1)
good luck. ANd I dont care how many people come on cheerleading you. That doesn't impress me as to whether your behavior is justifiable. In fact, given the criticism that I level against you, it only confirms it.
[ Parent ]
Don't you love people who talk trash on blogs... (0.00 / 1)

[ Parent ]
Good on Foster!! (4.00 / 1)
Somewhere Denny boy is choking on his ice cream!!
Dear every single Bush Dog in Congress, (4.00 / 4)
LOOK AT THIS!
Exhausted Democrat, never more content (4.00 / 6)
I just spent 12 hours as a sherpa and delegate at the Denver Democratic County Assembly.  I came home and poured a whiskey and soda.

I have been on democracy overload, having spent something on the order of 4 hours in an extended house district meeting (476 people were with me, by the way).

I'm sorry this comment isn't cognent or poignant by the standards of the site, but, having met Bill Foster, I am excited to see this news.  The man is an intellectual heavyweight, and his field is hard - not political - science.  Box lunches, griping, and counter-motions aside, there is overwhelming energy right now (at least in Denver). The fact that Chicago is sending someone to Congress who can break down so much of the urgent scientific illiteracy we see in our government right now thrills me.  Now I'm going to grab my ottoman and refresh my highball.  Cheers, Bill.

Our Ship Is Coming In (0.00 / 0)
Yes, this is a great victory. This year should be a really good one. Let's work hard and go pick up another 50 House seats and a dozen Senate seats in November. With enough effort we can do it.
[ Parent ]
And didn't the NRCC (4.00 / 1)
spend a boat load they didn't have to spare o this race?  
15% of their cash on hand? (4.00 / 1)
I've seen some figures all over the place, but even stingy estimates seem to say that the NRCC doubled down and lost big time.
[ Parent ]
29 percent (0.00 / 0)
of there CoH.

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power
[ Parent ]
Very good win! (4.00 / 2)
Foster also campaigned heavily on universal health care and defended the European systems. I'm not sure why he would join the blue dog thing at all.
How is a coattails argument? (0.00 / 1)
I would love to read your analysis rather than just the conclusion, but frankly considering you ignore this sort of post I won't hold my breath
This is simple math (4.00 / 2)
Obama: Endorsed Foster + Made a campaign ad which was played heavily in the district + McCain campaigning for Oberweis = Obama helping Foster elected, and McCain not helping Oberweis get elected. If you want to deny OBJECTIVE FACTS, that's fine, but the fact that he won, and won by the way in a district that hasn't elected a Democrat since 1974 (right after Watergate and one of the best Democratic years ever), elected Dennis Hastert by large margins, and gave Bush double digit victories, and gained in the polls immediately after the ad started running in the district, shows that Obama's coattails helped Foster win in this deep-red district.

Former Edwards Supporter, Obama Supporter since January 30, 2008
[ Parent ]
Not Matt's analysis, but TPM agrees with him (0.00 / 0)
and provides reasoning:

http://tpmelectioncentral.talk...

Prediction: The Obama campaign will shop this around to uncommitted super-delegates, as evidence that they can expand the electoral playing field. One thing that helped Foster greatly was a well-organized get out the vote machine that the state party had organized to beef up Obama's totals in the Super Tuesday primary, and Obama himself took the time to cut an ad for Foster's campaign.

[ Parent ]
it hardly matters if 10 say that the world is flat (0.00 / 0)
 if the world isn't flat. What I am looking for is how this proves what people claim it proves. The reason why you can't do that is because like with Clinton and NY with her supposed coattails in NY state, it's a flawed argument from go. WHo agrees with the flawed argument is irrelevant if your point is to understand what's happening. Of course, sinc the blogs are now shill central for clinton or obama (got on Armstrongs case over at mydd for this) then trying to figure out whether these arguments are true with regard to helping up win against the GOP isn't the goal.  Winning against the GOP despite the spin is why I am asking these questions.
[ Parent ]
for goodness sake (0.00 / 0)
there is a difference between proof and evidence. Foster's win doesn't prove Obama's coattail strength, but it provides additional evidence that his coattails will be strong. Do you really disagree with the previous sentence?

Oh, and stop trolling please.  

[ Parent ]
People will run with this as they already are (0.00 / 0)
as if "Obama has coattails." If this were a reasonable crowd I would agree, but ti it isn't. You can certainly find that what i just wrote is exactly the issue at hand. That they will say it proves Obama has coattail. Indeed, they argue that in this very thread. So, I am left wondering what you are arguing ?
[ Parent ]
Not proof (0.00 / 0)
With all due respect,

That doesn't prove Obama has national coattails. That proves he has a state organization in IL.L . Which is you know, his home state. Every politician has a state organization for their home state.

Also, TPM points out that the state party had a big role in this too.

By this type of reasoning mayor Daley should always be the presidential canadite because they Daley machine has the best "coattails" in the country.

The problem with this entire argument is that there is a difference between state coattails and national coattails. Every state wide candidate is expected to have statewide coattails. Yes even in conservative districts.

[ Parent ]
Why Foster Won (4.00 / 4)
Okay, here are some reasons:

National:  
The GOP just ain't that popular right now nationwide.  Even in a traditionally "safe" GOP district, a non-incumbent Repub. will have some difficulties.  Voters of all political persuasions are fed up with the war and with the economy, and have laid the responsibility for both generally at the GOP's feet.

Illinois:  
The Illinois GOP is very weak right now in general.  The party is having major difficulties finding decent candidates, even to run against an ethics-challenged Democratic governor.  They had to get Alan Keyes to carpet-bag as an "Illinoisan" to run against Obama for his Senate seat.  Oberweiss is an example of a lousy candidate who nevertheless got the nod due to his ability to self-fund the campaign.

Moreover, Illinois has overall trended more "blue" over the last 20 years.  In the 1970's an 80's, Illinois was arguably a "lean Republican" state for presidential elections.  That was back when there were still such a thing as "Main Street" Republicans ... moderate to conservative fiscally, willing to compromise, and not very interested in the culture wars.  Take this guy, for instance.  These folks aren't recognizable in the contemporary GOP, and now more likely consider themselves "independents."

The Candidates:
Bill Foster is an excellent candidate with loads of integrity.  He's also a local boy who made good.  Oberweiss is a clown.  In a close local race, character counts.  And Foster has it while Oberweiss does not.

Obama coattails?
Maybe.  Obama is popular in his home state.  I'm dubious that voters thought to themselves, "since Senator Obama likes Foster, then I like Foster too."  However, Obama's lending of his name and time to the Foster campaign probably did do some good in legitimizing Foster as a "real" candidate who could win in IL-14 and worth voting for.  Remember, this IS a strong repub. district.  Foster had to demonstrate he was for real as a Democratic candidate - Obama helped him do that.

All in all, congratulations to a good and decent man on making it to Congress.    

my web log.

Excellent Analysis n/t (0.00 / 0)


Former Edwards Supporter, Obama Supporter since January 30, 2008
[ Parent ]
Message Coattails. (4.00 / 1)
What was interesting about Obama's ad was it wasn't so much a personal endorsement as it was message endorsement - you don't have to wait for November to have change.  It shows the power of Change and where the country, blue and red districts, are in what reverberates the most with them.  
[ Parent ]
OpenLeft search engine optimization (4.00 / 2)
The Jim Oberweis CBS2 story ended up as the third result in google, just behind the official site and wikipedia.  Numerous liberal sites appear on the front page of results too.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.
Bill Foster and Rush Holt can now form the Physicist's Caucus in the House. (0.00 / 0)
That is the shit.

I wonder who all the PhDd scientists in the House are.  Vic Wulsin is an epidemiologist, but beyond that I can't think of any offhand.  McNerney is an engineer, but that's not quite the same thing.  There's quite a few MDs I think -- Steve Kagen and Clay Shaw (defeated), and surely there are others.  Heck, even Shelly Sekula-Gibbs was a dermatologist.

Anyway, that's all I've got.  Anyone know other PhDs / MDs in the House or Senate?

Dr. Ron Paul of course... (0.00 / 0)
even if he might not sound like one, you can't forget him.
[ Parent ]
doctors that don't believe in evolution (0.00 / 0)
aren't real doctors
[ Parent ]
hmm... (0.00 / 0)
... Ron Paul would be another.
[ Parent ]
Vernon Ehlers (0.00 / 0)
He's a "moderate" Republican.  I believe there are now three PhD Physicists in the House.  



New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

[ Parent ]
Great Win - Frustrating for San Diegans! (4.00 / 1)
Oh how I wish Francine Busby had taken this approach!

It may not have been enough for her to actually win the seat - but it would have been much better than the milk toast campaign she ran!

Great day to be a Democrats.

Big congratulations to all the people on the ground that helped pull this off.

And Robin Weirauch (0.00 / 0)
Yes, and I wish Robin had done the same in OH-05 in her special election last December. She had a tougher race and a stronger opponent in a more conservative district, but I think she could have done better if she had come across as a stronger advocate.
[ Parent ]
Iraq and civil liberties (4.00 / 1)
Exactly.  Republicans will vote Democratic when Democrats run on issue of substance and stand up firmly for their principles.  It turns out that Republican voters hate worthless wars and a creeping police state, too.
Obama Just Won Another Delegate (4.00 / 1)
As the Democrats' newest member of Congress, Foster is now a superdelegate to the Democratic National Convention.

He says he's voting for Obama.

Did anyone ask this question before you started attacking eachother? (4.00 / 1)
Would we have picked up that seat if Hillary Clinton cut an ad for Bill Foster?

Brian
http://www.politicalinaction.com

The actual first question should have been (0.00 / 0)
Let's found out what contributed to his win rather than asserting or assuming that any outside factor led to it. That would be the approach before getting into an argument. The second approach if Obama did seem to have coattails would be to what extent and how much we can extrapolate from it? There are many ways this could have been handled. One poster above tried for example to ask "what kind of Republicans are in the district" and was down rated for his discussing this. So, when people ask what you are asking, and are uprated with a 4, I can only conclude this isn't about substantive analysis.
[ Parent ]
How did this thread turn into a flame war? (4.00 / 3)
Reading the comments, I see accusations of trolling, and legitimate trolling, going on all over the place.  Is it so hard to get excited about a big Democratic and progressive victory in Hastert's old district?

This is not a civil debate on the extent of Obama's coattails.  It's developed into a realm of personal attacks, on a thread where the mood should be a lot more celebratory.

Calm down and cool it.  Not everything is a zero-sum Obama-Hillary argument.

It's not going to happen (0.00 / 0)
I am not a Clinton supporter. In fact, my candidate was Edwards. The mistake I made was the question the narrative that "Obama has coattails" and it went down from there. I did this at two sites to prove a point to myself. In both cases, the approach was exactly the reaction that I got above. I also note that others more reasonable than me questioned the assertions being thrown out, and they were down rated. One of my frustration with the assertions is exactly that they are turning a victory for all Democrats into "Obama is best" diaries. This used come up with Edwards. Someone would post something positive, and someone would come into the diary to write "Yeah, but he voted for the war." In one case, the discussion was about environmental policy.
[ Parent ]
This is great news! (4.00 / 1)
Too bad the comments degenerated into an argument that nobody can win (reminded me of the scene in "Fargo" where the two guys are in the car and the one says he isn't going to talk any more and then keeps talking on and on).  It gives Obama a talking point that he will be of more help to downticket Dems and perhaps indicates why some swing state candidates like Udall in Colorado want Obama at the top of the ticket, but it is mostly great news that the Dems picked up a seat and forced the Republicans to spend big bucks that they couldn't afford to, and will force them to spend more on that district in the next election.  It will also cause an escalation of the civil war going on among Republican house leaders and perhaps result in the RCCC head getting axed.  House Leader Pelosi must be smiling.

It is the job of thinking people not to be on the side of the executioners -- Albert Camus

geez, seriously (0.00 / 0)
I like this site because people don't say things like "fuck off, troll."  If somebody is being obtuse, just state your case and stop responding to their comments.  If your thoughts are quality, they'll stand on their own.
[ Parent ]
Democrat Bill Foster Takes Dennis Hastert's Seat Running Strong on Iraq, FISA | 113 comments





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