Here is the remaining primary schedule, along with post-Edwards polling in each state:
Democratic Nomination Primary Schedule
| State |
Date |
Obama |
Clinton |
Delegates |
| Mississippi |
Mar 11 |
53.7% |
38.0% |
33 |
| Pennsylvania |
Apr 22 |
38.0% |
53.0% |
158 |
| Guam |
May 03 |
-- |
-- |
4 |
| Indiana |
May 06 |
40.0% |
25.0% |
72 |
| North Carolina |
May 06 |
47.0% |
41.5% |
115 |
| West Virginia |
May 13 |
22.0% |
43.0% |
28 |
| Kentucky |
May 20 |
-- |
-- |
51 |
| Oregon |
May 20 |
-- |
-- |
52 |
| Puerto Rico |
Jun 01 |
-- |
-- |
55 |
| Montana |
Jun 03 |
-- |
-- |
16 |
| South Dakota |
Jun 03 |
-- |
-- |
15 |
| Florida |
??? |
39.0% |
55.0% |
185 |
| Michigan |
??? |
41.0% |
41.0% |
128 |
| Total |
NA |
48.0% |
43.0% |
912 |
And here is the updated delegate count:
Democratic Nomination Campaign Delegate Projection
| Delegate Type |
Obama |
Clinton |
Other |
Remaining |
50%+1 |
| Pledged |
1,389.5 |
1,238.5 |
26 |
912 |
1,783.5 |
| Super |
211 |
258 |
0 |
299 |
NA |
| Projected Add-ons |
39 |
24 |
0 |
18 |
NA |
| Total |
1,639.5 |
1,520.5 |
26 |
1,229 |
2,208 |
In this projection, I am assuming a revote in both Florida and Michigan. As such, I have included current superdelegate endorsements from those states in superdelegate totals, and placed both their pledged and add-on delegates in the "remaining" column.
In order to win the nomination, Clinton needs to win at least 93 more delegates than Obama before the convention. If she does so, her delegates plus Edwards delegates will force a brokered convention, even if every single superdelegate makes an endorsement beforehand. That requires 53.8% of the remaining delegates. While difficult, that is certainly not impossible, especially if she goes on a winning streak starting in Pennsylvania. In order to win 50% +1 before the convention, she needs 687.5 delegates, or 56.0% of those that remain. While that is starting to enter highly unlikely territory, it is also a reason why she is starting to organize in multi-tiered delegate contests.
Resources: Pledged Delegate Count details, Popular Vote Counts, Democratic Convention Watch, Democratic Nomination Wiki, The Green Papers, Pollster.com, Nomination At A Glance archives, Caucus state conventions schedule.
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