I can see the point (4.00 / 3)

I can see the point of speculating about adding Florida's delegates to any total delegate list.

But, isn't speculating that the Michigan delegate count would possibly be awarded 82 to 1 in Clinton's favor a little too far fetched even for hypothetical charts?

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by: Johnny Cleveland @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 16:32:38 PM UTC

Michigan (0.00 / 0)

Yes, talking about various solutions to the Florida-Michigan problem is important, but this daily legitimizing of the bogus Michigan primary results is a bit much. If I want to read that sort of thing I know where to find Jerome Armstrong.

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by: KCinDC @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 17:10:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

FL/MI (4.00 / 1)

Every time you put up these numbers and it's so obviously too close I think if they don't redo FL as well as MI the Dems will lose the general.  It looks so bad to disenfranchise two entire states, I think the GOP will hammer the Dems on just this issue and frankly I'll agree with them.  What a rigged game as it is and this just makes it look plain stolen to me.

It reminds me of 2000 so much, which is still pretty raw.  I was glued to CNN in horror in 2000 and this is like some sort of flashback.


NoSlaves.com  


The Economic Populist

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by: Robert Oak @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 16:39:52 PM UTC

It isn't either/or (0.00 / 0)

There are brokered solutions where these delegates are split 50-50 or some other close fraction, or FL gets the 71-116 pro-Clinton split but MI gets 41-42, or the delegates each lose 1/2 of their vote (the delegation loses 50%), like the GOP did to them, that are less draconian.  These can be worked out between now and when  the first committee meets in June.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

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by: Mimikatz @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 16:51:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Unacceptable (0.00 / 0)

that's not the people's choice.  I'm sorry, that is positively disgusting to just arbitrarily decide delegates.

NoSlaves.com  


The Economic Populist

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by: Robert Oak @ Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 00:59:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

stop including Fla & Mi (4.00 / 2)

I agree. Chris should return to his previous policy of not including Florida and Michigan in these posts until there is an official resolution of how their delegates will be counted.

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by: redwards95 @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 16:39:58 PM UTC

Declare victory at 1627 (4.00 / 4)

When Obama reaches a majority of pledged delegates he should declare victory.  I believe Nancy and the Supers would join in and call it for Obama.

Radical Centerist

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by: vmckimmey @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 16:41:24 PM UTC

that is a great idea (0.00 / 0)

had not thought of that. According to Cris's numbers that would happen on May 20th. If Obama can do somewhat better in PA or elsewhere, it could be May 13  

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by: hatbox @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 20:07:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

no brokered convention (4.00 / 1)

I continue to believe that if Obama isn't fatally wounded by Wright (which we will find out in the upcoming primaries) and he continues to lead in pledged delegates, states, and popular vote then the superdelegates (not just the uncommitted by also many Clinton supers) will resolve the situation by handing Obama the nomination shortly after Puerto Rico votes.

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by: redwards95 @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 16:42:05 PM UTC

Yeah but (0.00 / 0)

there are a whole range of outcomes possible in the remaining states.  Its entirely possible at this point that Clinton ends up the popular vote winner, at least with some measures.  She still has an uphill battle, but for example if she wins PA by 16% (not out of the question) then she could make up over 400K votes.

Obama still might do well enough to knock her out by June.  But he also might limp to the finish line.  His behind the scenes obstructionism regarding Michigan is a pretty high risk strategy, and nothing is very clear at this point.

John McCain: Health insurance for low income children represents an "unfunded liability."

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by: FuzzyDunlop @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 16:49:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What evidence? (0.00 / 0)

Besides the Clinton campaign's emails, what evidence is there that the Obama campaign is the obstruction here, vs. "poison pills" from the state GOP?

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by: APoxOnBoth @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 19:59:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Don't understand why you include Michigan (4.00 / 1)

Can you explain why?  It's atrocious to include Michigan as is, unless you are using this, as an annoyance, to spark movement to have a revote in Michigan.

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by: JC @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 16:51:59 PM UTC

Firehouse Primary (0.00 / 0)

Hey Chris --

The best solution to the Michigan problem is the Firehouse Election -- while this is technically a caucus, it is closer in form to a primary.

We should call it a Firehouse Primary, instead a Firehouse Caucus -- the Firehouse modifier refers to the caucus organization (run by the party, not a state sanctioned primary) while it's closer to a Primary in the type of vote (open for many hours, secret ballot, etc.)

By using the Firehouse Primary name, it mitigates the potential objections from the Clinton campaign -- which are sure to come, since seating the delegation "as is" may be Billary's only path to victory.

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by: -ck- @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 17:16:51 PM UTC

Just truculence? What about the principle of voters have the right to vote? (4.00 / 1)

Defintion of truculence: obstreperous and defiant aggressiveness

So on the level of principle...what do you think of aggressively putting forward one procedural obstacle after another , standing in the way of actually having people vote and having their votes matter?

If a Republican did this we'd be outraged...but too many are inclined to forgive him....and that is what I mean about the distortion of a movement.  We should be about principles and not men....and voting and having the votes matter is the fundament of democracy.

Too many are willing to distrot or suspend principles because it is to the political benefit of one person.

Just as we a government of laws not men...the Democratic party should be a party of priniciples not persons.  Democracy is undermined when we are more concerned with persons than principles....It's why I have always said it's more important to choose officeholders on the basis of party and prinicples and not to just "pick the best person"

"Incrementalism isn't a different path to the same place, it could be a different path to a different place"
Stoller

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by: debcoop @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 18:20:12 PM UTC

now, Clinton and Obama signed pledges (0.00 / 0)

they agreed not to particpate in the FL and MI primaries unless they came into compliance with the rules.  Nov, dec, jan, feb now most of March has come and gone.  Now we need a deal.  My MI legislature made a galatic screwup against our shrill condemnations from the activist community.  As a MI voter, my anger is focus on the democratic leaders that made this disasterous decision when 48 other states, including "big" states like WI and TX and OH and PA, found a way to work them selves into the system.  If my vote is taken away in November, them I'll be pissed, but speaking for myself, the punishment should fall on the leaders who signed off on breaking the rules for what ever self interest.

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by: gaspare @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 19:26:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

should or not ....punish the decisionmakers (4.00 / 1)

that's not going to mean anything because the only people it punishes is the voters.

"Incrementalism isn't a different path to the same place, it could be a different path to a different place"
Stoller

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by: debcoop @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 20:08:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

wait, 1664.5+278=1942.5 for Obama (0.00 / 0)

that means between now and June Obama needs to
add the 71 from FL, which gets Obama to 2013.5(2129.5 new threshold) or make up the difference with 82 super delegate commitments between now and June 3rd(about 8/week).  Yep, looks like he's running out the clock and it looks like Clinton is trying to stir the pot, especially with her visit to Detroit.  Her play seems to be to destabilize FL and MI to the point that Obama can't win them but Hillary can.  Or at least use us(in Michigan) as a vice to keep the super delegates from peeling off with the argument that MI and FL voters are getting dissed and dissing them is tilting them to McCain.  hmmm

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by: gaspare @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 19:18:55 PM UTC

What About The Super Delegates From The States Hillary Has Won? (0.00 / 0)

Chris made a point about Hillary getting more from NY than Obama did from IL, so the questions I have pertain to the following:

1) Have all the SD from the states she has won already committed to her, and if not, how many hold-outs are there?

2) Will SD such as Kerry, Kennedy and Patrick from MA not be seen as representing the will of MA by going with Obama? After all, Senator Boxer and others have committed to doing likewise and have come out for Hillary.

3) Given the thrust that Hillary has won the major states, we all know the likelihood of Wyoming going Dem versus the likelihood a NJ staying Dem in November, so why shouldn't this count as a major factor in deciding the Dem nominee?

Chris likes to talk about representing the will of the people, but let's face it, caucus states really haven't represented the collective will the way a primary state has, so I have major problems giving an Iowa or a Nebraska the same level of consideration I would a MA or OH.

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by: SoCalHillMan @ Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 22:55:10 PM UTC

i have VERY different math for you (0.00 / 0)

If Hillary will win over 60% in PA, expect supers will endorse her in droves and NC & IN will follow PA trend (but with less gap in Hillary's favor). this will make KY, WV and PR even better possibility for Clinton. I think even Oregon can be Hillary's with this anti-Wright wave.

My prediction as following in delegates (+ is for Hillary):

PA+42, NC+3, IN+2, WV+8, OR+2, KY+11, PR+11 with total for those 7 states +78 delegates for Hillary:

Pennsylvania 58 for Obama - 100 for Hillary,
Guam 2 - 2,
North Carolina 56 - 59,
Indiana 35 - 37,
West Virginia 10 - 18,
Oregon 25 = 27,
Kentucky 20 - 31
Puerto Rico 22 - 33,
Montana 8 - 8,
South Dakota 8 - 7.
===================
TOTAL 244 for Obama, 323 for Clinton.
Add MY projected future totals to YOURS Total 2 (before Michigan) and you will get total 2000 delegates for Obama and 1960 delegates for Hillary plus you need to add  delegates from Michigan (somehow they will get counted)
and superdelegates and Add-ons, which I project will favor
Hillary.

If FL&MI in play (as they should be), it means total tie, which can be resolved only by supers. I will be really surprised if superdelegates will vote for Obama, if she will win PA and more than 300 delegates as I projected above.
Don't forget, that after 1st vote/ballot on convention all delegates will be stripped from pledged status and can vote anyway they wish.

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by: Karl Marx @ Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 02:50:54 AM UTC

Reality is that Obama leads Clinton (0.00 / 0)

Significantly in pledged delegates.  We have no way of knowing for certain what's going to happen for certain with these next contests, or for that matter MI and FL.  

What we do know is that re-votes are unlikely and it's either a split of some sort (with a penalty) or MI & FL simply won't count.  

Obama is up by about 1,000,000 votes and I can't see a scenario in which Clinton catches him.  

The most plausible scenario is that Obama and Clinton end the primary season with about a 150 pledged delegate lead for Obama, and a six figure lead in the popular vote.  

I am NOT saying that things can't change, but a lot of these Clinton scenarios are wishful thinking.  Don't take it from me, as Chuck Todd made the same case on both Morning Joe and Countdown in the last 48 hours.  

It's great that we all care about who our nominee is, but I'm concerned we'll argue these points to a point where we come out of this process as adversaries within our own party.  

I think the wisest course of action is to see how it plays out in the primaries and let MI & FL get worked out between the DNC and the Obama and Clinton camps.  Otherwise, we'll be reliving this like we did in FL 2000.  

We cannot afford to get to the point in which one side would rather see McCain win than the "other" Democratic candidate.

Let the voters decide and keep the nasty comments out of the press.

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by: War Horse @ Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 14:57:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

if you can not see, i can not give you my eyes (0.00 / 0)

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by: Karl Marx @ Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 16:36:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't understand (0.00 / 0)

Two things:

- I thought the amount to win was 2,024? Where is this 2,208 number coming from?

- Someone will lead in pledged delegates after all the primaries are completed in June. Why wouldn't the undecided superdelegates follow Pelosi's argument and go with the winner? Wouldn't that prevent a convention floor fight?

Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards.

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by: Jenifer Fernandez Ancona @ Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 05:25:43 AM UTC