|
One key to the McSame "Maverick" Myth is the incredible gap between the range of diversity in the two parties. The GOP is much more lock-step than the Democrats are, and as a result, McSame stands out as somewhat atypical in a way that he would not, if the Republicans were as diverse in their views as the Democrats are. This is not merely an qualitative observation on my part. It's something you can prove with cold, statistics. And that's just what I'll do on the flip, using Progressive Punch statistics.
Naturally, this sort of analysis is anathema to the Versailles media. For them, the balance myth is axiomatic. The notion that Democrats could be anything other than mirror images of the Republicans is not simply heresy, it's unthinkable. So, join me for a brief stroll through unthinkable land on the flip.
|
| Party Differences in The Senate
The table below compares group statistics for the two parties in all the Progressive Punch categories, along with the overall score. Categories are sorted in ascending order of the difference in standard deviations (Dem minus Rep). Thus, the only two categories in which the Democrats have a smaller standard deviation come first. The standard deviation is the most basic statistical measure of how broadly or narrowly a group of statistical values is dispersed around a central value (the average in the table below). The fact that Republicans have a smaller standard deviation in almost all categories reflects a smaller dispersion of values, and thus, a greater uniformity in voting. As will be seen below, McCain seems like much more of a "maverick" compared to the uniformity of the GOP than he does when compared to the Democrats.
Progressive Punch Scores, U.S. Senate
Statistical Comparison Of Parties | | Difference In Standard Deviation--Ascending | | Party: | Democrats | Republicans | Difference | | Category | High | Low | Range | Mid | Avg | St Dev | High | Low | Range | Mid | Avg | St Dev | Low Dem- High Rep | High | Low | Range | Mid | Avg | St Dev | | Corp-Subs | 100.0 | 35.7 | 64.3 | 67.9 | 80.5 | 18.8 | 76.5 | 0.0 | 76.5 | 38.2 | 16.1 | 21.2 | -40.8 | 23.5 | 35.7 | -12.2 | 29.6 | 64.5 | -2.4 | | Env | 100.0 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 73.7 | 84.9 | 13.6 | 64.5 | 0.0 | 64.5 | 32.2 | 14.8 | 15.4 | -17.1 | 35.5 | 47.4 | -11.8 | 41.5 | 70.1 | -1.8 | | Overall | 98.2 | 50.6 | 47.6 | 74.4 | 86.5 | 8.4 | 36.8 | 2.8 | 34.1 | 19.8 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 13.8 | 61.4 | 47.9 | 13.5 | 54.6 | 76.6 | 0.7 | | Aid | 100.0 | 59.7 | 40.3 | 79.8 | 92.2 | 8.5 | 31.3 | 1.1 | 30.1 | 16.2 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 28.4 | 68.8 | 58.5 | 10.2 | 63.6 | 84.9 | 1.5 | | Health | 100.0 | 58.1 | 41.9 | 79.0 | 92.7 | 9.5 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 14.0 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 30.1 | 72.0 | 58.1 | 14.0 | 65.1 | 86.8 | 2.7 | | Gov't-4-All | 100.0 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 76.4 | 89.1 | 9.0 | 27.3 | 0.0 | 27.3 | 13.6 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 25.5 | 72.7 | 52.8 | 19.9 | 62.8 | 82.3 | 3.5 | | Fair Tax | 100.0 | 49.2 | 50.8 | 74.6 | 91.4 | 9.7 | 23.8 | 0.0 | 23.8 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 25.4 | 76.2 | 49.2 | 27.1 | 62.7 | 87.1 | 4.5 | | Gov-v-Corp | 100.0 | 35.5 | 64.6 | 67.7 | 84.6 | 13.5 | 35.5 | 0.9 | 34.5 | 18.2 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 64.6 | 34.5 | 30.0 | 49.6 | 74.8 | 5.1 | | War-Peace | 100.0 | 53.9 | 46.2 | 76.9 | 87.1 | 10.6 | 21.8 | 0.0 | 21.8 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 32.1 | 78.2 | 53.9 | 24.4 | 66.0 | 83.2 | 5.2 | | Fam-Plan | 100.0 | 12.5 | 87.5 | 56.3 | 81.2 | 19.1 | 62.5 | 0.0 | 62.5 | 31.3 | 5.1 | 13.7 | -50.0 | 37.5 | 12.5 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 76.2 | 5.4 | | Hum-Rights | 100.0 | 42.0 | 58.0 | 71.0 | 84.3 | 11.4 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 18.0 | 76.0 | 42.0 | 34.0 | 59.0 | 80.3 | 5.5 | | Labor | 100.0 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 72.5 | 82.7 | 15.1 | 39.1 | 0.0 | 39.1 | 19.6 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 60.9 | 44.9 | 15.9 | 52.9 | 75.7 | 6.1 | | Justice | 100.0 | 30.4 | 69.6 | 65.2 | 86.2 | 13.2 | 22.2 | 0.0 | 22.2 | 11.1 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 8.2 | 77.8 | 30.4 | 47.4 | 54.1 | 82.1 | 8.7 | | Ed-Hum-Art | 100.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 50.0 | 88.1 | 21.2 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 16.7 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | -16.7 | 83.3 | 0.0 | 83.3 | 41.7 | 85.5 | 17.4 | | Housing | 100.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 50.0 | 74.2 | 30.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 16.7 | 5.1 | 12.0 | -33.3 | 66.7 | 0.0 | 66.7 | 33.3 | 69.1 | 18.1 |
For our purposes, it is both clearer and easier if we convert these scores to a common scale by inverting the Democratic scores (subtracting them from 100), which leaves the range and standard deviation unchanged, but maps the extreme highs of the Democrats onto a common scale with the extreme lows of the Republicans, and allows us to compare the "moderates" of both parties directly to one another. This is what the following table does:
Progressive Punch Scores, U.S. Senate
Statistical Comparison Of Parties | | Difference In Standard Deviation--Ascending | | Party: | Inverse Of Democrats* | Republicans | Difference^ | | Category | Low | High | Range | Mid | Avg | St Dev | High | Low | Range | Mid | Avg | St Dev | High | Low | Range | Mid | Avg | St Dev | | Corp-Subs | 64.3 | 0.0 | 64.3 | 32.1 | 19.5 | 18.8 | 76.5 | 0.0 | 76.5 | 38.2 | 16.1 | 21.2 | -12.2 | 0.0 | -12.2 | -6.1 | 3.4 | -2.4 | | Env | 52.6 | 0.0 | 52.6 | 26.3 | 15.1 | 13.6 | 64.5 | 0.0 | 64.5 | 32.2 | 14.8 | 15.4 | -11.8 | 0.0 | -11.8 | -5.9 | 0.3 | -1.8 | | Overall | 49.4 | 1.8 | 47.6 | 25.6 | 13.5 | 8.4 | 36.8 | 2.8 | 34.1 | 19.8 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 12.5 | -1.0 | 13.5 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 0.7 | | Aid | 40.3 | 0.0 | 40.3 | 20.2 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 31.3 | 1.1 | 30.1 | 16.2 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 9.1 | -1.1 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 1.5 | | Health | 41.9 | 0.0 | 41.9 | 21.0 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 14.0 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 7.0 | 1.4 | 2.7 | | Gov't-4-All | 47.2 | 0.0 | 47.2 | 23.6 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 27.3 | 0.0 | 27.3 | 13.6 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 19.9 | 0.0 | 19.9 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 3.5 | | Fair Tax | 50.8 | 0.0 | 50.8 | 25.4 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 23.8 | 0.0 | 23.8 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 27.1 | 0.0 | 27.1 | 13.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | | Gov-v-Corp | 64.6 | 0.0 | 64.6 | 32.3 | 15.5 | 13.5 | 35.5 | 0.9 | 34.5 | 18.2 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 29.1 | -0.9 | 30.0 | 14.1 | 5.7 | 5.1 | | War-Peace | 46.2 | 0.0 | 46.2 | 23.1 | 12.9 | 10.6 | 21.8 | 0.0 | 21.8 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 24.4 | 0.0 | 24.4 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 5.2 | | Fam-Plan | 87.5 | 0.0 | 87.5 | 43.8 | 18.8 | 19.1 | 62.5 | 0.0 | 62.5 | 31.3 | 5.1 | 13.7 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 12.5 | 13.8 | 5.4 | | Hum-Rights | 58.0 | 0.0 | 58.0 | 29.0 | 15.7 | 11.4 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 34.0 | 17.0 | 11.7 | 5.5 | | Labor | 55.1 | 0.0 | 55.1 | 27.5 | 17.3 | 15.1 | 39.1 | 0.0 | 39.1 | 19.6 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 15.9 | 0.0 | 15.9 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 6.1 | | Justice | 69.6 | 0.0 | 69.6 | 34.8 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 22.2 | 0.0 | 22.2 | 11.1 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 47.4 | 0.0 | 47.4 | 23.7 | 9.7 | 8.7 | | Ed-Hum-Art | 100.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 50.0 | 11.9 | 21.2 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 16.7 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 83.3 | 0.0 | 83.3 | 41.7 | 9.2 | 17.4 | | Housing | 100.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 50.0 | 25.8 | 30.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 16.7 | 5.1 | 12.0 | 66.7 | 0.0 | 66.7 | 33.3 | 20.8 | 18.1 | * Except for range & standard deviation, which are not inverted. ^ Differences treat inverse of Dem Low as "High," inverse of Dem High as "Low." |
McCain In Comparison
We're now ready to compare McCain, first to the Republicans, then to the Democrats. Comparing him to other Republicans, we find that he is generally more moderate--though not on all issues. Because Republicans and Democrats both skew toward the extreme, the averages are more extreme than the midpoints, and McCain tends to fall between the two. Thus, in the columns of differences, most of the midpoints are negative, while most of the averages are positive. Dividing McCain's difference from the GOP average by the standard deviation for any category gives us the difference in standard deviations (the last column), which is a measure of how far McCain diverges from his fellow Republican senators. We can call this his "maverick measure." Most of them are positive, meaning that he is more liberal. We could also compare his rank directly, but those scores are not as useful for making this sort of comparison between categories. We can see that there are a couple of categories in which he is more than two standard deviations higher than the average--corporate subsidies and fair taxation--but these are atypical. He is usually not more than one standard deviation away. Still, there does seem to be a good case here for calling him a "maverick." The general perception that he is not marching in lockstep seems born out:
| John McCain In Context | Progressive Punch Scores Compared To Senate GOP As A Whole | | | McCain's Difference From | | Category | McCain | Rep High | Rep Low | Rep Mid | Rep Avg | Rep SD | Rep High | Rep Low | Rep Mid | Rep Avg | Rep Avg in SD | | Aid | 12.50 | 31.25 | 1.14 | 16.20 | 7.28 | 6.97 | -18.75 | 11.36 | -3.70 | 5.22 | 0.75 | | Corp-Subs | 64.29 | 76.47 | 0.00 | 38.24 | 16.05 | 21.21 | -12.18 | 64.29 | 26.05 | 48.24 | 2.27 | | Ed-Hum-Art | 5.88 | 16.67 | 0.00 | 8.34 | 2.64 | 3.83 | -10.79 | 5.88 | -2.46 | 3.24 | 0.85 | | Env | 27.69 | 64.47 | 0.00 | 32.24 | 14.76 | 15.39 | -36.78 | 27.69 | -4.55 | 12.93 | 0.84 | | Fair Tax | 17.74 | 23.77 | 0.00 | 11.89 | 4.24 | 5.26 | -6.03 | 17.74 | 5.85 | 13.50 | 2.57 | | Fam-Plan | 0.00 | 62.50 | 0.00 | 31.25 | 5.05 | 13.72 | -62.50 | 0.00 | -31.25 | -5.05 | -0.37 | | Gov-v-Corp | 20.59 | 35.45 | 0.91 | 18.18 | 9.74 | 8.38 | -14.86 | 19.68 | 2.41 | 10.85 | 1.29 | | Gov't-4-All | 11.16 | 27.27 | 0.00 | 13.64 | 6.82 | 5.55 | -16.11 | 11.16 | -2.48 | 4.34 | 0.78 | | Health | 10.00 | 27.96 | 0.00 | 13.98 | 5.88 | 6.75 | -17.96 | 10.00 | -3.98 | 4.12 | 0.61 | | Housing | 0.00 | 33.33 | 0.00 | 16.67 | 5.07 | 11.97 | -33.33 | 0.00 | -16.67 | -5.07 | -0.42 | | Hum-Rights | 6.90 | 24.00 | 0.00 | 12.00 | 4.00 | 5.87 | -17.10 | 6.90 | -5.10 | 2.90 | 0.49 | | Justice | 8.11 | 22.22 | 0.00 | 11.11 | 4.12 | 4.58 | -14.11 | 8.11 | -3.00 | 3.99 | 0.87 | | Labor | 9.09 | 39.13 | 0.00 | 19.57 | 7.02 | 8.98 | -30.04 | 9.09 | -10.48 | 2.07 | 0.23 | | War-Peace | 9.30 | 21.79 | 0.00 | 10.90 | 3.88 | 5.36 | -12.49 | 9.30 | -1.60 | 5.42 | 1.01 | | Overall | 13.98 | 36.82 | 2.76 | 19.79 | 9.90 | 7.73 | -22.84 | 11.22 | -5.81 | 4.08 | 0.53 | | Average: | 14.48 | 36.21 | 0.32 | 18.27 | 7.1 | 8.77 | -21.72 | 14.16 | -3.78 | 7.39 | 0.82 |
The bottom-line measure of a 0.82 average standard deviation is difficult to quantify in the abstract, since the distribution of GOP voting records is not a bell-shaped curve, which would allow an easy translation of standard deviation into how small a percentage of the population would be that far from the average. But it certainly does conform with other measures that show him more toward the center than the middle of the conservative pack.
Here's a chart, generated by Travis Mitchell, and bowderized a bit by me, that visually summarizes where McCain stands on the different issue categories:
But what if Republicans were like Democrats, only in reverse? What if they had the same degree of independence and diversity? Or, put another, would a Democrat like McCain stand out as a "maverick"? The simplest, most straightforward way to answer that is to compare McCain to the inverse of Senate Democrtatic scores that were shown in the second table above. When we do that, McCain's "maverick measure" vanishes to almost nothing. He still has a "maverick measure" of 2.39 on corporate subsidies, but his "maverisk measure" is negative on seven categories, compared to just two when compared to other Republicans. And several of those almost break below -1. Most signicantly, both the overal "maverick measure" and the average "maverick measure" are less than 0.1:
| John McCain In Context | Progressive Punch Scores Compared To Inverse of Senate Democrats | | | Inverse of | McCane's Difference From Inverse of Senate Dems | | Category | McCain | Dem Low | Dem High | Dem Mid | Dem Avg | Dem SD | Dem Low | Dem High | Dem Mid | Dem Avg | Dem Avg in SD | | Aid | 12.50 | 40.34 | 0.00 | 20.17 | 7.84 | 8.45 | -27.84 | 12.50 | -7.67 | 4.66 | 0.55 | | Corp-Subs | 64.29 | 64.29 | 0.00 | 32.14 | 19.48 | 18.77 | 0.00 | 64.29 | 32.15 | 44.81 | 2.39 | | Ed-Hum-Art | 5.88 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 50.00 | 11.87 | 21.21 | -94.12 | 5.88 | -44.12 | -5.99 | -0.28 | | Env | 27.69 | 52.63 | 0.00 | 26.31 | 15.10 | 13.58 | -24.94 | 27.69 | 1.38 | 12.59 | 0.93 | | Fair Tax | 17.74 | 50.82 | 0.00 | 25.41 | 8.62 | 9.71 | -33.08 | 17.74 | -7.67 | 9.12 | 0.94 | | Fam-Plan | 0.00 | 87.50 | 0.00 | 43.75 | 18.80 | 19.08 | -87.50 | 0.00 | -43.75 | -18.80 | -0.99 | | Gov-v-Corp | 20.59 | 64.55 | 0.00 | 32.27 | 15.45 | 13.51 | -43.96 | 20.59 | -11.68 | 5.14 | 0.38 | | Gov't-4-All | 11.16 | 47.19 | 0.00 | 23.59 | 10.88 | 9.02 | -36.03 | 11.16 | -12.43 | 0.28 | 0.03 | | Health | 10.00 | 41.94 | 0.00 | 20.97 | 7.28 | 9.49 | -31.94 | 10.00 | -10.97 | 2.72 | 0.29 | | Housing | 0.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 50.00 | 25.83 | 30.04 | -100.00 | 0.00 | -50.00 | -25.83 | -0.86 | | Hum-Rights | 6.90 | 58.00 | 0.00 | 29.00 | 15.69 | 11.36 | -51.10 | 6.90 | -22.10 | -8.79 | -0.77 | | Justice | 8.11 | 69.62 | 0.00 | 34.81 | 13.77 | 13.23 | -61.51 | 8.11 | -26.70 | -5.66 | -0.43 | | Labor | 9.09 | 55.07 | 0.00 | 27.53 | 17.31 | 15.09 | -45.98 | 9.09 | -18.44 | -8.22 | -0.54 | | War-Peace | 9.30 | 46.15 | 0.00 | 23.07 | 12.93 | 10.58 | -36.85 | 9.30 | -13.77 | -3.63 | -0.34 | | Overall | 13.98 | 49.36 | 1.78 | 25.57 | 13.48 | 8.39 | -35.38 | 12.20 | -11.59 | 0.50 | 0.06 | | Average: | 14.48 | 61.83 | 0.12 | 30.97 | 14.29 | 14.1 | -47.35 | 14.36 | -16.49 | 0.19 | 0.09 |
With this sort of comparison, rather than being seen as a maverick, McCain would be seen as average on average, but fairly erratic--much more centrist on some things, much more conservtive on others. It's only in comparison to other Republicans that this erratic tendency tends to be submerged Of course, the distinction between being a "maverick" and being erratic is not one that is easily made--except in one regard. No one thinks that being erratic is a good thing in a presidential candidate. |