Farm bill: House votes an X-ray of the Dem party

by: skeptic06

Sun Jul 29, 2007 at 13:09


We now have the rollcall stats by rep in Voteview format and I've been dissecting them for what they can tell us about the Dem House party in action.

We have 10 RCVs for HR 2419 (#747-756), the first 8 of them on amendments, the other two on the motion to recommit and on passage:

skeptic06 :: Farm bill: House votes an X-ray of the Dem party
RC No Amendt No, etc Rep Description
747 700 Kind FARM21
748 706 Jackson-Lee Sense of Congress re school food quality
749 707 Rangel Relaxation of Cuba sanctions
750 708 Boehner Fix loophole on calculating farm handouts
751 713 Davis (IL) Strike sugar subsidy, bioenergy provisions
752 715 Udall (CO) Token diversion of cotton subsidy to conservation
753 716 Putnam Relaxation of proposed subsidy cap
754 717 Cooper Crop insurance reform
755 MTR Goodlatte Remove tax provisions on international companies
756 Passage NA NA

There are a good number of questions to explore using this data.

Firstly, there's the extent of party unity. Compared with the overall statistics for the Congress (somewhere in the mid-90s), unity was not stellar: counting only votes cast, 77.4% were cast with the majority of Dems. (Regularly quoted unity stats include procedural votes in which loyalty is both expected and shown.)

The motherhood-and-apple-pie #748 passed with no Dem votes against. In the votes on passage and on the motion to recommit, 14 and 7 votes respectively went wayward.

But - given the text, the vote on the MTR is hardly surprising; and the passage vote was always going to garner almost a full turnout - the GOP were bound to make it a solidly partisan, and it would be unthinkable for a bunch of Dem reps to lose a big bill for Nancy right now.

The other votes show rather deeper splits.

The Dem tally on the Kind amendment was 72-155. Support was garnered from CA (12 reps - including Tauscher and Harman!), MA (6) and NY (12). Meanwhile, TX supplied one yea: Doggett.

In due season, it will be interesting to check the ideological makeup of the two camps on Kind: my immediate impression is that it was not a clear left-right split. More difficult, but still possible, would be to look for a rural/urban angle.

We have a further comparator in the 2001 vote on HA 340 to HR 2646 (107th), the farm bill eventually enacted in 2002. (The amendment was introduced by Boehlert, but is referred to (even at the time) as the Kind amendment. It seems to have had a similar thrust to HA 700 to the current bill.)

The vote on HA 340 was tight: 200-226, 54 GOP voting in favor, 64 Dems voting against. Pelosi and Hoyer both voted for it.

How to explain the marked falloff over six years in Dem support for a Kind kind of amendment? I suspect that we're in the majority now, stupid! doesn't explain everything! (More spreadsheeting needed.)

A further angle to explore is how liberal the Dem votes were.

My coding? I rate 750, 753 and 755 as nays for liberals, the rest being yeas.

On this basis, Dems gave 1,382 liberal votes to 874 non-liberal ones (that's 38.7% of Dem votes given on the 10 RCVs): 155 against Kind, 192 against Boehner (perhaps this was pure partisanship: but then I've not looked at his amendment!), 174 against Davis, 107 against Udall and 110 against Cooper.

Things to look at: first, the extent to which Dem non-liberal votes went beyond the number needed to kill the amendment in question; excess votes may imply a desire to demonstrate loyalty to the leadership or to show a bit of leg to contributors.

Second, the votes in which the Dems were split pretty much down the middle (Udall and Cooper). Were these heavily whipped, or did the leadership not take too strong a view?

Much more goodness to be extracted, I reckon.


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OK so if you could shortcut me to the explanations (0.00 / 0)
of all the 1s and 6s in the rollcall matrices I would appreciate it. I would like to do specific analysis for Illinois. I did follow some of the links and went to the ICPSR site so it's not like I'm lazy.

Jeff Wegerson

Actually... (0.00 / 0)
Glad you asked that question!

Simple answer: 1 is yea, 6 is nay, 9 is a no-vote, 0 is not a member at the time.

However - to handle the roll call data from the UCLA site (in the form of ORD files), I use a package called pscl running on the R statistical program.

Fortunately, I gave a quick how-to guide over at the old place. (Quite how fortunate that is, I leave to you to judge!)

I know of no way (I tried!) to read an ORD file directly into a spreadsheet. Quite why the roll call file isn't also provided as a CSV for this purpose, I know not.

Let me know how you get on - there really ought to be some kind of permanent reference (a wiki?) in which this sort of info can be put. Soon, perhaps...


[ Parent ]
database (0.00 / 0)
I made an MS Access database with all the House votes in it, as well as caucus information to make it easy to look at votes by caucus.  And, of course, it's easy to export anything to Excel if desired.

email me if you want a link to it using my spam filtering email address: theskyispretty, which is at gmail.com.

I wrote a perl script that updates the votes from sunlightlabs, and I update it weekly or so.

There's a lot more I want to do to it, but it sounds like what it is now would be useful to you (and avoid the ickiness you're dealing with).  I'm hoping for a wider release in about a month.

end the occupation of Iraq


[ Parent ]
OK so you're already well down a path I have begun. (0.00 / 0)


Jeff Wegerson

[ Parent ]
OOPs I hit enter by mistake. (0.00 / 0)
So you are down a path I have begun. Here's what I generate from my own access data base from the raw Thomas html:
------------------------------------
*H R 1830*  23 YEA-AND-NAY  27-Jun-2007  8:44 PM

*QUESTION:*  On Motion to Suspend the Rules and Pass, as Amended

*BILL TITLE:* To extend the authorities of the Andean Trade

Yes No NV
Bold=Dem
CDIllinoisIndianaMichigan
1RushViscloskyStupak
2JacksonDonnellyHoekstra
3LipinskiSouderEhlers
4GutierrezBuyerCamp
5EmanuelBurtonKildee
6RoskamPenceUpton
7DavisCarsonWalberg
8BeanEllsworthRogers
9SchakowskyHillKnollenberg
10KirkMiller
11WellerMcCotter
12CostelloLevin
13BiggertKilpatrick,
14HastertConyers
15JohnsonDingell
16Manzullo
17Hare
18LaHood
19Shimkus


Jeff Wegerson

[ Parent ]
Consistency (0.00 / 0)
Looking at the 17 Democrats to vote against final passage, I notice that they are hardly conservative members:

Brian Baird (WA), Melissa Bean (IL), Earl Blumenauer (OR), Michael Capuano (MA), Jim Cooper (TN), Jay Inslee (WA), Ron Kind (WI), Jim McDermott (WA), Harry Mitchell (AZ), Brian Moran (VA), Adam Smith (WA), Pete Stark (CA), John Tierney (MA) and Henry Waxman (CA).

This group was very consistent in supporting the other reform measures.  All supported Farm 21 and Cooper's reform proposal.  But but one supported the cuts to cotton subsidies and easing Cuban trade regulations.  The toughest vote was sugar subsidies where all but three supported the reform.


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