The Operational Benefits of a Divisive Primary

by: Matt Stoller

Sun Mar 23, 2008 at 13:48


I wrote an earlier post about the operational costs of a divisive primary.

In 2003, outside groups registered 140k new Democrats in Philadelphia for the Mayor's race as a way of upping the vote turnout in a swing state for the 2004 election.  Republicans meanwhile were registering in the exurbs and outlying counties.  In 2007, no registration happened in the Philadelphia mayoral race because outside groups were involved in the Presidential primary.  In Ohio, millions of dollars was spent on TV from the DNC, the media fund, the Kerry campaign, etc, all against Bush.  At this point, there's almost nothing being spent against McCain, though he is much less defined than Bush and there's more potential to paint a picture of who he is.

At this point in 2004, there were field operations that had been active for months in swing states.  With the exception of labor, that is just not the case today.  In other words, a good amount of the blocking and tackling useful in defining and beating a Republican Presidential candidate is just not happening.  There's limited local press outreach to dog him, almost no paid media, and very little organizing.  This will continue until the primary is over.  I would have hoped that one or both of the Presidential candidates would try to steer some focus towards McCain, but that's not happening.

I've since heard from multiple sources that Obama is doing a lot of voter registration, thousands a day.  And Obama's campaign can scale its volunteer operation to all 50 states with its easily deployable web tools, though the human infrastructure is not so simple to scale.

Anyway, it's an interesting shift away from the large sustained well-funded outside organization into a campaign which is based on the energy and enthusiasm of thousands.  One slight point of pique is that paid Obama organizers apparently cannot post on blogs for risk of being fired, so we have less information than we might otherwise have about what they are doing.  And the campaigns are mostly keeping their organizing strategies and numbers to themselves.  

Matt Stoller :: The Operational Benefits of a Divisive Primary

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More Democrats every day (4.00 / 1)
    I didn't know that organizers weren't allowed to comment on blogs.  But I'm not a paid Obama organizer, I'm just a lowly volunteer.  So, the newest estimate here in Centre county (home of Penn State University) is 5,000 new Democrats.  These Democrats are sometimes completely new voters, switchers  from Independent/Republican affiliation, or most commonly, change of location.  This is about a 16% increase in the number of Democrats in Centre county.  It also means that Centre county will soon have more Democrats than Republicans.    Centre county has never seen such a registration drive - partisan or non-partisan.  

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

Oh yeah... (0.00 / 0)
   I want to emphasize how singularly focused the Obama campaign is on registering voters here in Centre county.  That is the only thing we are doing right now.  We are basically a partisan Democratic registration outfit until tomorrow night's deadline.  

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

[ Parent ]
I'm a volunteer organizer (0.00 / 0)
...who may go on payroll, and I've already had to cut back my posting extensively.  If I get a spot in Oregon, you won't hear from again till Nov, lol.

[ Parent ]
are paid staff officially requested not to post at all on blogs? (0.00 / 0)
The operation they're running is unprecedented they know really whats truly going on in the field, their POV's would in invaluable for the rest of us who are not there to know and keep pace.

It seems the BO campaign strategy for Pennsylvania is to first finish the registration drive and then start campaigning vigorously there without making it "important" as HRC was hoping so that the narrative remains "Penn is Hillary's to lose and for BO to keep it close". Lowered expectations in PA work for BO's campaign, i think they'll focus much more on the states that he's supposed to win so that HRC doesn't claim any momentum.

a win in PA although unlikely at this point would be fantastic, but if they come to keeping it as close as 5% do you think that would kill the Hillary momentum out of PA? keeping the %ge close or fighting HRC to a tie in Penn would be a huge story for the BO campaign.


[ Parent ]
How do you know they are Democrats? (0.00 / 0)
Registration to me doesn't equate with they agree with us idealogically?

[ Parent ]
How do you know they are Democrats? (0.00 / 0)
Registration to me doesn't equate with they agree with us idealogically?

[ Parent ]
There are no guarantees. (0.00 / 0)
    But how is that different from any other registration drive ever created?  What should I do while I'm canvassing?  Ask them to summarize their positions and then make a judgment call and suggest that they register as a Republican/Independent/Democrat?  

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

[ Parent ]
Actually, yeah, It might be useful while registering people to know why (0.00 / 0)
they are registering. It doesn't require you make a judgement call. Just what is appealing about being a Democrat. First, it would go along way toward changing this from speculation that they are voting candidate or values. If values, it's something the party can continue to use. If candidate, not so much.  

[ Parent ]
It would be useful... (0.00 / 0)
  But it's not the goal of a registration drive.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

[ Parent ]
My point is that maybe it should be so that when the fall hits (0.00 / 0)
you will have this information handy. I don't do this for al iving. I do have a friend who does. In 2004, he made comments that I am making to you now. He felt the Democrats waited too long and pressumed too much. It's good that you are build some now, but it doesn't mean there isn't room for improvement. This is an element- identifying what voters think- that is one of them.

[ Parent ]
this is what I've been saying (0.00 / 0)
Obama supporters need to settle down and let this thing play out. It's good for us to have spirited campaigns in all of the states that are not used to influencing the presidential selection.

This will help us in the fall, as well as keeping McCain out of the spotlight. It's not as if McCain is amassing a $200 million warchest or anything.

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Ten regional offices in NC (4.00 / 1)
Each with multiple paid field staff, battle tested from Iowa through Ohio, opening this week.

Registration booming even before they arrive with self-organized groups having already been focused on that activity as the top priority.

At least from my on-the-ground vantage point the effect is powerful and never would have been so had the primary concluded earlier.

Now NC is highly unlikely to turn Blue at the presidential level, but the long-term and down-ballot effects are significant -- there's a reason both Dem gubernatorial candidates have declared their support for Obama! Also helped will be red-to-blue congressional races like that of Larry Kissell, not to mention county commissioner and other races.

"All politics is local" and in this locale the "operational benefits" are significant.

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the difference between Dems and the GOP (0.00 / 0)
is -- at this point in history -- pretty fundamental. Policy aside, it's the party of argument and debate versus toe-the-line ideologues. I can't be the only one who's seen plenty of Republican types head towards the Dems simply because they like to be treated as if they have a brain, and their opinions and thoughts should count for something. So I don't think we should read too much into the differences between the primaries -- except in a good way.

In other words, I think a lot of people just want to talk about things. They want to be heard. And they are getting their energies in gear in a primary season.

While a lot of the shit that's been thrown is crazy and counterproductive, my feeling is that's it's happening on a high level and not affecting the public as much. Here on the South Side of Chicago everyone is an Obama supporter (well, almost) -- but absolutely nobody is going to say they won't support Hil if she wins the nomination. I wish that message could be heard a little louder by the journos doing horseracing at the top.


What exactly does it mean to have a party where in there is no (0.00 / 0)
idealogical views at all? The center on such an idea isn't sustainable because people do differ. It's great to have them heard, but what happens when we disagree with them?

[ Parent ]
PS (4.00 / 1)
I personally think it's a pretty good idea for paid Obama staff to be off the blogs. There are a billion volunteers, and it can't hurt to have a little discipline further up the hierarchy; remember that things are going to get pretty extreme when the Dems go to the general election and anything that can be tied to the nominee will be. Which includes a snarky comment, an off-color remark, an irony-heavy sentence -- anything.

if nothing else, it's sound employee management (0.00 / 0)
hours blogging = hours not organizing

[ Parent ]
Berks County, PA for Barack (0.00 / 0)
I am a volunteer here in Reading, PA.  Although the paid campaign staff just got here two weeks ago, we have been active for many months.  The registration drives have been going extremely well - I am not willing to reveal numbers for competitive reasons.  

In going door to door, phone-banking, and to various public places registering new voters, I have found some McCain support, but very little Hillary support, in and around Reading - although there is some not unsurprising Xenophobic feeling against Barack ("I'm going to vote for the American/White Man/Not for Osama...etc.").  

The encouraging thing for me is that the reports about this being a thoroughly grass-roots led organization (the reason that prompted me to join Obama's campaign) has been borne out by my observations since I joined, esp. of how the paid campaign staff have conducted themselves, and how the campaign is strategized.  

The good news for Dems if BO becomes the nominee, is that a strong volunteer base has already been activated and there is tremendous energy and enthusiasm that will carry over into the general election campaign and beyond.  

Hillary here is generally supported by the local party machine, and while that is a significant source of organizing strength, I cannot see how that will give us an advantage against McCain in the General.  

Most of the local Obama supporters that I have spoken to feel that HRC is trying to re-write the rules mid-game in order to win ("the popular vote counts, not pledged delegates", "big states vs. small states "etc.) and many would sit out the General if she somehow ekes out a win.  Many have even said that they would vote for McCain.  

The energy at the grass-roots for BO would be a tremendous asset in  building the Democratic Party and would catapult the framework of the "50-state strategy" that Dean has put into place.  

On the other hand, if HRC wins, it would have a detrimental effect to party building for the reasons I mention above, and we could see the Dems in worse-off shape than when the primary season began, rather than exponentially better.


Berks for Barack. (0.00 / 0)
  What are "competitive reasons?"  I'm just wondering...all these kinds of things are new to me.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

[ Parent ]
Berks for Barack (0.00 / 0)
That's just my way of saying that I don't want the other camp to know where we are at it in terms of goal, etc.  This is a numbers game, and maybe I am just being over cautious, but there you have it.

[ Parent ]
Here is what I can say (0.00 / 0)
The Obama campaign set a goal of registering 100,000 voters and they will meet and probably exceed it. If there was registration up to the day of the primary that goal would probably by 5 times higher.

Obama registered 150,000 voters when he ran Project Vote in Illinois. Part of his idea of change is bringing new people into the political process and if he is the nominee I bet the campaign and volunteers will register millions of new voters.

As I have said before. We have a real chance for a electoral transformation.

It isn't the length of the campaign that I mind. It's the right-wing attacks being throw around.  

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power


Judgement of ending the war in Iraq (0.00 / 0)
Obama in his book the "Audacity of Hope" points out the unique ideal about the war in Iraq, ending the war. I have to highlight this although it will not be well received in this blog but it is true. Its only my opinion and I don't have any ties to Clinton or McCain, just an honest challenge to Obama.  

Obama said one will need to make an imperfect judegment to bring an end to the war in Iraq, using the best guess.

In many speeches Obama fields the comments that he makes the best Judegments. Well guessing is not a judegment, they are two different things.

Here, a rigid set of criteria must be had to all forms of Judgement. And if anyone should know it should be a president. Then we have guessing which is an estimate based on little or no information.

Here, my argument is clear Obama flip flops so smooth so often that Obama can change his mind anytime he wishes if imperfect judgment is even considered. If Obama uses these criteria for much of his decision making America is likely to fail.

But since Obama has played the mantra of "Change We Can Believe in " anything he does could be O.K.  

Judgement has a rigid set of criteria, no guessing.

So, everyone can see another example of clear indecision that scream divisiveness, or confusion.

I am just a Joe six pack.    

 


Sounds Like You DRANK The Sixpack (4.00 / 1)
as opposed to the Kool Aid.

Cause you're totally off in your comments about judgment.  Using a rigid set of criteria is the exact opposite of judgment.  You can program a computer with a rigid set of criteria.  And this can be a very valuable aid in the process of judgment.  But true judgment involves grappling with intagibles and unknowables that can't be subject to a rigid set of criteria.

True judgment is for the hard cases, not the easy ones.  The easy ones you can tackle by algorithm.  The hard ones, not so much.

As for flip-flopping, well, they all do that.  And McCain's pretty much the champ of the field left standing.  He's got tax cuts, immigration, torture, the theocrats, heck, even his party affiliation seems to have been up for grabs at one point.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
Yes. (0.00 / 0)
   It's amazing how much nitpicking there is of the Obama campaign.  McCain invents a relationship between Al Qaida and Iran - a fundamental misunderstanding of the Middle East.  Clinton lies about her foreign policy experience in a vain attempt to outmaneuver Obama.  Meanwhile, people continue to criticize Obama on account of barely comprehensible minutiae.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

[ Parent ]
The Value of Insurgent and Challenger Candidates (0.00 / 0)
I'm one who is really thrilled that the primary has gone on so long, precisely because of things like Obama's outreach to new voters. Thank you Hillary for keeping on. May the both of you register 100's of thousands of new democratic voters!

I've noticed that many people get inspired to become involved in politics based on personal rapport or identification with specific candidates. Ideology, anger, policy, may contribute, but  personal connection and personal inspiration is so much more motivating. I've seen this pattern over a number of different elections, i.e. how certain candidates really inspire new people to come into the Party.

Also I've noticed how the Party sometimes doesn't want all this new energy.

New blood is sort of contrary to machine-style politics. The Party Establishment seems to want dependable, predictable voters rather than growth. It's really unimaginative. For example, here in Colorado, Dean's 50-state strategy is kind of shuffled off to the side. The Party doesn't say anything against it, but doesn't promote it either.

Obama is a map-changer because he inspires people to be involved. He is playing the role of an insurgent or challenger candidate, someone who can bring in lots of new people.

I guess we're sort of back to crashing the gates.


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