One month ago, the three blogs that form the Blue Majority Act Blue page, Daily Kos, Open Left, and Swing State Project, asked their communities if they wanted to endorse Barack Obama for President, or wait until a later date. While a super majority of the Daily Kos community thought it was a good time to endorse, by narrow margins a supermajority at Open Left and Swing State Project did not. As a result, we controversially we decided to not endorse at the time. However, tonight, in a non-binding, advisory straw poll, I am asking you for a second opinion.
Thirty days ago, I did not view endorsing in the presidential nomination campaign to be a major priority, and basically urged people to vote no in the straw poll. However, that has changed quite a bit, and I am ready to endorse Barack Obama now. Here are just a few reasons why, in no particular order:
- First, by gaining delegates in March, Obama has become a virtual lock for the nomination. Obama will reach 2,024 delegates, not counting Michigan and Florida, on either May 20th, June 1st, or June 3rd, depending on the rate of superdelegate endorsements. He only needs 42.7% of the remaining delegates to pull this off. By contrast, Clinton needs to win 59.5% of the remaining delegates to reach 2,024 herself, even though she only reached 59.5% of the vote in one state, Arkansas. Once Obama reaches 2,204, he will control both the credentials committee and the majority of delegates on the floor of the convention, making him a lock for the nomination. In other words, unless Barack Obama decides that Hillary Clinton should be the nominee, then Barack Obama will be the nominee.
- Second, the February 24-25th endorsement vote took place just before the Clinton campaign began arguing that John McCain was more qualified to be President than Barack Obama, significantly damaging the overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination. Further, over the last two weeks, Obama has faced a vicious media assault that seeks to drive a racial wedge right down the center of the diverse Democratic coalition. While Obama himself responded beautifully in his speech last week, the continuing primary campaign made it difficult for the broader progressive and Democratic infrastructure to provide effective response. Overall, despite the outcome of the nomination practically being a foregone conclusion, the ostensible need for the party infrastructure to stay neutral presents Barack Obama with a serious structural deficit against John McCain in the general election, since the entire Republican Noise Machine is already gunning for him
- Third, I have heard that fundraising for congressional candidates is starting to dry up. Partially this is because the Clinton and Obama campaigns are now raising about $2.5M a day online, and there just isn't much left over (and Clinton does not have much in the bank even with the amounts she is raising). However, even in the midst of lower online fundraising for congressional candidates, Barack Obama once again demonstrated his ability to bring coattails in the general election when Bill Foster when the special election for Dennis Hastert's old seat in IL-14. While the lengthy campaign is hurting our downticket campaigns, Obama is providing just about the only coattails we have left.
Here is the choice I think we face. On the one hand, we can pretend that Clinton still has a chance to win the nomination, and that the credentials committee and the majority of the delegates at the convention won't be controlled by some non-Obama power once Obama reaches 2,024. On the other hand, we can face reality that Clinton has no real chance to win the nomination because she further lost ground in March, a time when her own campaign admitted it needed to gain ground. Second, we can pretend that having prominent Democrats and the entire Republican Noise Machine use the same talking points on our presumptive nominee won't damage our general election chances, or we can start to build a united front against these attacks and succeed where we failed in 2004. Third, we can focus on the nomination campaign forever, or we can start to focus our attention on some downticket campaigns, too. From where I sit, the best path we can follow right now is to try and end the nomination campaign as quickly as possible, because Barack Obama is going to be the nominee and we desperately need some big wins in November up and down the ticket.
So, quite a bit has changed for me over the last month. Mike has already endorsed Obama, and I know that Matt is much more open to the possibility now, too. As such, I want to know where you stand. Should Blue Majority endorse Barack Obama now, or should we continue waiting until at least after the Pennsylvania primary? Take the advisory, non-binding straw poll in the extended entry.
update: If Clinton supporters really want me to push down the anti-Obama vote, I will happily split the poll into three options: Obama, Clinton or no endorsement. However, by combining the pro-Clinton and no endorsement vote into two categories, you stand a much better chance of making a good showing.
But hey, if it isn't democratic if I don't have all choices on the ballot, then surely we must seat the Michigan delegation as is.
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