Delegate Notes

by: Chris Bowers

Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 14:30


Here are some delegate quick hits for a Sunday afternoon:
  • In the Texas caucus, it looks like the delegate count will either remain 38-29 in favor of Obama, or that Clinton will gain a delegate and the count will be 37-30.

  • Four vacant DNC slots are actually among the uncommitted superdelegates. Two are at-large, one is in Arizona, and one is in Illinois.

  • Seven superdelegates, including four uncommitted superdelegates and one Clinton superdelegate, have stated that they will support the winner of the pledged delegate count. This group is known as "the Pelosi club" of superdelegates. Given that Obama only needs 37.4% (211.5 of 566) the remaining pledged delegates in order to reach 50% + 1 in that category, those are all effectively Obama superdelegates.

Add this all up, and Obama only trails Clinton 245-215 among non-add-on superdelegates. Further, only 253 non-add-on superdelegates are uncommitted. Yet further, I know of at least two more who will be endorsing Obama this week, which will change the totals to 245-217 with 251 undecided. This, of course, does not include Michigan and Florida, since the composition of their delegations remains up in the air.

Starting to slowly wind our way toward the end. It is not hard to see how this will be over in June.

Update: Since there is some discussion on the matter, my understanding of how the credentials committee is composed can be read here.  

Chris Bowers :: Delegate Notes

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Delegate Notes | 25 comments
Emanuel Appears to be a holdout in IL (0.00 / 0)
I didn't see his name on any of those lists.  
Rahm is already on record .. (0.00 / 0)
as supporting Hillary .. He is the only Ill. SD I know of that has come out in support of Hillary .. the others are already in Obama's camp .. or undecided
[ Parent ]
No (0.00 / 0)
Emanuel is officially neutral. Clinton ties vs Obama home state. Neutral is the safest thing for him to do.

DemConWatch
[ Parent ]
That is interesting .. (0.00 / 0)
because early on(this past Dec. maybe) I thought I read where Rahm came out in support of Hillary .. I wonder if he is having 2nd thoughts as well
[ Parent ]
Pre-Obama (4.00 / 1)
He did have some early pro-Clinton comments, but once it became clear Obama had a significant chance to win, he walked it back, and has said, basically, he's staying out of this one.

DemConWatch
[ Parent ]
Figures ... (0.00 / 0)
sounds like even Rahm knows now that the future is Obama .. and that the Clintons are the past
[ Parent ]
But the composition of FL/MI is the key here (0.00 / 0)
Because that's the basis on which Hillary is claiming she'll take this all the way to the convention.

If you take her at her word, that doesn't seem to suggest that this will end in June.  I'd love to hear your thoughts on her WaPo interview, Chris.

FL/MI help Clinton less than she thinks. (4.00 / 2)
If Florida counts, Hillary gains a net of 38 pledged delegates (it would be 105 Clinton/67 Obama/13 Edwards).

If Michigan counts, it would be 73 Clinton / 55 Uncommitted. But as uncommitted delegates from Michigan are all from voters who rejected Hillary Clinton, those 55 delegates would have no option that respects the will of the voters other than to vote for Obama.  So +18 more for Hillary.  Obama is still left with a 115 pledged delegate lead.

By my math, Obama then needs 43.6% of remaining pledged delegates to win an absolute majority of pledged delegates (Edwards would have 31).  Jerome Armstrong only gets a better result for Hillary by pretending that the 55 Michigan uncommitted delegates would somehow be forbidden from voting.

[ Parent ]
As soon as the 55 go for Obama (0.00 / 0)
This thing could be over. Obama could just say, seat everybody, I still win.

And The District Level delegates, 36 of the 55, get picked on 4/19. With PA 3 days later, it could be be over in 3 weeks from tuesday.

DemConWatch

[ Parent ]
Not So Fast (0.00 / 0)
My uncommitted vote in the primary was FOR Edwards and not a REJECTION of Clinton. It certainly wasn't intended for Obama who was my third last choice behind Richardson and Gravel.

If by some great miracle (Credentials Committee instituting good sense) the Michigan delegation is seated BEFORE balloting, then the 40% of uncommitted delegates are just that, Uncommitted and they are free to commit to the candidate of their choice. That would also include Clinton.

And given Obama's obstruction of the re-vote statute I would bet that many of those people would vote for Clinton.

[ Parent ]
Brazile on credentials committee (0.00 / 0)
Hello Chris,

Donna Brazile's description of the credentials committee seems to differ from yours.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/a...

Can you comment?

Semblance has a point... (0.00 / 0)
Donna explicitly states that each state will receive three delegates (similar to how Senators are apportioned).  If this is true, then that would account for 150 delegates.  If the DNC also gets 25 delegates (just for being DNC'ers) then that would account for 175 of the eligible 186 delegates for the Credential's Committee.  If this scenario is based on facts, then there are several obvious questions: 1) who are the remaining 11 delegates; 2) What method is used to determine how many delegates goes to each candidate for each state (winner of the state take all?  Or, are they apportioned in the same manner as each states' pledged delegates?); and, 3) what are the real rules for determining how the Credentials Committee is determined?  Clearly, the explanation provided by Donna is incomplete--it simply does not provide enough information to ensure self-evidence.  And, the explanation given by Chris does not address the core premise of Donna's explanation: that 3 delegates are allocated to each state.

So, how is the Credential's Committee determined?

[ Parent ]
What Chris wrote (0.00 / 0)
In the link he provides above, he writes:
The other 161 members come from the states, proportionally based on population. Every state and territory will have at least one member, and California will have the most with 17.
Brazile just had it wrong.

But it's really not that important, because you need only 20% to bring it to the floor. So, bottom line, if Obama controls the non FL/MI delegates on the floor, he can vote down any credentials challenge.

DemConWatch

[ Parent ]
Super Delegate Scoop?! (4.00 / 1)
No hints? Are they Pennsylvanians?
My source says the 2 are Gore and Edwards (0.00 / 0)
And if you're curious about who my source is, it's my dog Mikey.

John McCain won't insure children
[ Parent ]
Your dog is wrong; Edwards isn't a superdelegate (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
really? (0.00 / 0)
and an unknown 17 year old blogger from the northwest is a superdelegate? lol... incredible system.
[ Parent ]
Edwards is a Superdelegate (0.00 / 0)
I don't know why this misinformation keeps going around.  He's been a superdelegate for years.   And yes, like Gore, he is uncommitted at present.  
[ Parent ]
My Source says Bill and Hillary Clinton (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
The Wall Street Journal says Klobuchar is endorsing tomorrow (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]
Michigan and Florida. . . (0.00 / 0)
So other than that, how did you like the play, Mrs. Lincoln? (Oops--I forgot.  Obama Math is not to be tampered with. So it is written...so it shall be done.)
A question for Chris (0.00 / 0)
So I read the credential committee rules and allocations.  And I understand that the 161 members are selected largely by a proportional system based on the election results.  That seems pretty straight forward.

But it seems to me that there is a proportionallity problem with regard to the smaller states.  What about the states that are only getting 1 delegate on the credential committee.  By count there are 20 states that only get one delegate(AK,AR,DE,DC.,HI,ID,KS,ME,MS,MT,NE,NV,NH,MM,ND,RI,SD,UT,
VT,WV,WY)

Of those 20 I count 14 that went to Obama, and only 4 that went to Hillary, with SD and WV still to vote.  

So what happens in those states.  Presumably only one candidate can get the delegate.  That would be a pretty huge swing.  

As a matter of fact unless I am missing something I don't so how it would be possible for Clinton to have an advantage on the Credentials Committee.  

Since each state selects there committee members proportional to the state popular vote and since except in a small handful of states, the spread between the candidates is less than 15 points, that means that that these small states will carry an inordinate amount of weight.  

Consider the following.  

DE was a 10 point win for Obama.  That doesn't really matter however because DE is 1 delegate state.  Obama, assuming I am right, gets one delegate.

California, with its whopping 17 delegates, went 51-43 for Hillary.  That means that Hillary gets 9 delegates and Obama 7.  Ohio will be 4-3 for Hillary.

As such total state victories will matter more than popular vote count.  

If this is correct then Obama has already guaranteed control of the credentials committee.

So what am I missing?

You're not missing anything (0.00 / 0)
but all Clinton needs is 20% to file a minority report, and then it goes to the full convention. So the breakdown of the Credentials Committee is all much ado about nothing. If it gets this far it would go the floor, and if Obama controls the overall delegates, the minority report gets quashed.

DemConWatch
[ Parent ]
True (0.00 / 0)
But Hillary is starting to convince some of her supporters that she can somehow pull this off by peddling these sorts of myths.

Take a look over at Talk Left where they are getting themselves excited over the myth that Hillary could control the credential committee and thus pull victory from the jaws of defeat.  

She can't control the credential committee and it is EXTREMELY unlikely that she will control the floor.

[ Parent ]
2nd question to Chris re identity of 2 super delegates (0.00 / 0)
At least tell us whether or not these 2 supers you know are part of the Klobuchar/NC Reps package that are said to be coming out for Obama soon.

Stomp your digital foot once for 'yes' and twice for 'no'.

If no, that would mean that Obama is about to pick up 8 super delegates (6 NC House Reps who haven't yet endorsed Obama + Klobuchar + Chris' Mystery 2). That would be tremendous news!

Wall Street Journal link:
http://online.wsj.com/article/...

Delegate Notes | 25 comments





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