Poll and delegate update

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 19:12


I'm out of pocket right now, so my blogging must be brief. Here are some quick numbers on the campaign:

At the county convention caucuses, Clinton picked up a delegate in Texas. Obama still won the state delegate batle, 98-95. I now project Obama head by 160 pledged delegates overall.

A new North Carolina poll (primary on May 6th, 115 delegates) shows Obama leading 54%--36%.

A new Kentucky poll (May 20th, 51 delegates) shows Clinton leading 58%-29%.  

Chris Bowers :: Poll and delegate update

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Poll and delegate update | 30 comments
One lousy delegate (4.00 / 2)
  All that intimidation, all those games, all those credential challenges, all that harassment of Obama delegates, all that dragging out of the process in the hope that Obama delegates would get tired and leave...

 ....and the Hillary campaign got one delegate for their efforts. Uno solo.

 I'm sure it was worth the price paid in Obama voters alienated for the general. Positive.  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

Interesting.. AP Reports the same 5 delegate advantage... (0.00 / 0)
I know Burnt Orange shows differently now, but AP reports the 38-29 split that was originally expected:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/200...

AP can certainly be wrong, but this article at least sounded semi-definitive (and was written today).  Something Burnt Orange is missing, or is it the AP?

Mississippi (4.00 / 1)
The Mississippi final count was corrected today, and Obama is now just over the 62.5% threshold needed to get 3 of the 4 pledged PLEO delegates (rather than only 2). So the overall split for MS is now 20-13 rather than the projected 19-14. That'll balance the loss in TX.

I was skeptical of the report, since it was Democratic Underground, but I've checked the MS secretary of state site (which has different number from what it had last week) and the math, and everything seems legit.

Cool (0.00 / 0)
That's good to hear! Essentially a +2 net swing, which will cancel out Obama losing a delegate in Texas (if the numbers end up holding).
[ Parent ]
Also, that NC poll link doesn't seem to be right... (0.00 / 0)
Just sayin... =)
It's another PPP poll (0.00 / 0)
Link here (PDF). It was 54-33 last week, so not really any movement.
[ Parent ]
It's to BOR--Texas (0.00 / 0)
Chris means it when he says he is out of pocket :-)  but appreciate that other information lies ahead! The NC link is to BOR in Texas.

Keep trying, we want to know when Chris is less out of pocket.  He does a good job otherwise.  

[ Parent ]
KY+PA+WV will give her 61 more than to Obama (0.00 / 0)
keep in mind with exception of NC she has good chances elsewhere. add FL+MI, and you can stopp begging her to drop out. Obama will lose.
Hmmm (0.00 / 0)
You need to take another look at the numbers.  Barr7ng a MAJOR upset this cam0aign is over.
[ Parent ]
The math (0.00 / 0)
Just for the record, KY+PA+WV is only 237 pledged delegates total, so Karl's assumption is that Clinton will get 63% of the available delegates across those three states. And also Obama won't gain anything from NC or IN or OR. And somehow the bogus MI+FL delegations will be seated over the objections of all the other states who played by the rules and will actually be the ones who have delegates voting on whether that will happen.
[ Parent ]
Only if Mi is sat 91-1 (4.00 / 1)
which is won't be...does that help her catch up... So here is you proposition.

1. Hillary Wins PA by 27 (that is 63-37)... However since 50% of the delegates come from the Phili area, she likely needs closer to 69% to get the 40 or so delegates out of there.

2. The Momentum closes a 20 point lead in NC and gets her a tie there and in Indiana.

3. WV and KY go for her by 27, she maintains her current lead in those states and picks up...at most... 18 delegates.

4. A huge come-back win in Oregon lead to a tie, barely favoring her.

5. She wins the PR by another 65-35 margin, netting 27 delegates.

Where does all that get you?  Behind Obama by roughly 80 delegates.

6.  Fl and Mi are sat, as is, with Mi going 91-1 in delegates.  It has to be that way, or she will still be behind 30 delegates.

7. Supers remain uncommitted and are willing to turn over Obama's small pledged delegate lead.

[ Parent ]
You want to show that math? (0.00 / 0)
Are you assuming they're winner-take-all or something?

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog
[ Parent ]
math is here: (0.00 / 1)
PA+38, WV+8, KY+15, total 61 more delegates for Hillary than for Obama in those 3 states - this is my prediction. NC is out of reach for her, because blacks will vote against own interests. But IN & OR will be hers with some small gains. All remaining states are very uncomfortable for Obama (Close Primaries only, professor), because all his advantage is fraud in caucuses and abuse of GOPs and independents in Open Primaries. No such luck anymore - he has to face the will of the people.
[ Parent ]
You're a moron (0.00 / 0)

NC is out of reach for her, because blacks will vote against own interests.

Why don't you go back to MyDD or HillaryIs44, where you belong?

[ Parent ]
New PA Poll: Clinton Lead Down to 5% (0.00 / 0)
Oops, at the rate things are going in PA, it's going to be hard for her to pull off that double digit win.

See New Rassumsen Poll Hillary's lead is evaporating.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

[ Parent ]
rasmussen wrong: survey USA said C53-O41 today! (0.00 / 0)
And she raised $3M last night, so she will undo effects of Obama's Ad attacks and she go back to 20+ points in 2 weeks
[ Parent ]
attack ads (0.00 / 0)
I'm in Pennsylvania, and although I don't watch much TV, I've seen two Obama ads. They weren't attack ads at all, more along the lines of introductory ads.

Did you see any attack ads in Pennsylvania?

[ Parent ]
Obama will clean up in NC and OR (0.00 / 0)
IN will likely be a wash, and Obama will probably net out somewhere around 5-7 delegates from MT and SD.

I think it's a bit far-fetched to say that Clinton will get 20 delegates from each KY and WV when they both have considerably less delegates than PA.

[ Parent ]
you wish! MT, SD, OR etc are all closed primaries (0.00 / 0)
Obama will be rejected by real democrats, just wait and see (and enjoy) how real democracy works when no fraud from caucuses or open primaries involved!
[ Parent ]
Not in OR (0.00 / 0)
Not from what I've heard.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.
[ Parent ]
I know it is April Fools Day and all .. (0.00 / 0)
but still ...
[ Parent ]
Interesting divide (0.00 / 0)
Obama's failure to do well amongst Appalachian Dems is fascinating. It seems strange that you have this huge divide, yet it doesn't apply as much in the Upper South (even in the white vote) and the opposite applies in the plains states. Even more interesting is that it doesn't appear to have that much effect on general election dynamics.

We tend to think of NC and KY being somewhat similar in terms of their political culture. This certainly shows that it's much more complicated than red and blue.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog

It is fascinating but it does have an effect on the general (0.00 / 0)
Tennessee, WV, Arkansas and, to a lesser extent, Ohio are states where HRC clearly has an advantage over Obama. And I'm an Obama supporter.
[ Parent ]
Does the 'favorite' status during (0.00 / 0)
the primary really matter?  For example, Clinton's greater popularity in California and New York during the primary is a value that only has merit during the primary season.  It is highly likely that an Obama candidate for the presidency will win both states--even if Clinton was more popular.  Basically, the general election results won't be based on the popularity of same-party candidates, but instead will be based on desirability of different-party candidates.  

It is very likely that Obama will be the democratic nominee, and it is equally likely that Obama will pick up the bulk of support that once was Clinton's.  I realize the current polls suggest that a large number of Clinton supporters will not vote for Obama, but I think that is simply an extension of the current voter euphoria for their particular candidate.

[ Parent ]
That's generally true (0.00 / 0)
but I think he's going to have a relatively tough time of it in Appalachia. These folks don't love Hillary (as opposed to, duh, women). So it's not about her. I betcha a lot of them plain old fashioned don't trust the wine-drinking black guy. That's likely to hold into the general. And Appalachia, unless I'm mistaken, has a relatively high rate of military service. They'll like McCain as a person (although of course this means they're getting more than their fair share of the burder of war so that could go either way.)

I grew up not far from Appalachia (central VA) and went to school in it (Virginia Tech) and I have no problem believing that Obama's magic might not work with these folks.

This is clearly his one bad region where he has almost no foothold at all. Of course, he'll do poorly in most of the South due to the difference in demographics between primaries and the general.  

[ Parent ]
NC - 22% blacks, KY - 8% blacks (0.00 / 0)
Nothing interesting in this divide: it is racial card, used by Obama, considering that blacks voting 9-1 for Obama.
Obama is the Divider here.
[ Parent ]
It's comments like these that earn some Clinton supporters (4.00 / 1)
such a bad reputation for disingenuity, dishonesty, and just plain bullshit.

Obama has consistently won mostly white states. His biggest victories have come in lily white America, in states like Iowa, Nebraska, Wyoming, and Maine. This is common knowledge by now. You have to know this. You must be ignoring it for whatever reason. People will take you more seriously if you will take your opponents' arguments more seriously.

It is generally Obama supporters who maintain, even in the most extreme cases, the ability to see both sides of the story. We know and readily admit that Obama, for example, does terribly in Appalachia. We know, and readily admit, that Hillary has a lot of support from women. We know and readily admit that Obama does worse, generally, in states with AA percentages between roughly 5 and 17.

Some Hillary Clinton supporters deny or ignore absolutely any argument that threatens their candidate. They're far more interested in advocacy than getting at the truth. I have seen HRC supporters/anti-Obamaists deny/ignore that Obama is winning, deny/ignore that the nomination is decided by delegates, deny/ignore that Hillary has consistently high negatives.


[ Parent ]
all 4 examples are causes = fraud (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
More on the Texas report (0.00 / 0)
We at Burnt Orange Report recognize that Obama is actually right at the threshold for garnering the 38-29 delegate split out of the caucuses. This is simply an estimate because it doesn't get set in stone until the state convention in June.

There are still about 500 delegates remaining out to be reported, mostly from small counties and half of which are the "texas state superdelegate" (i.e. county chairs and such). They are not pledged.

Additionally, we are aware of 2 major challenges in the Senate Districts. The one in SD 26 (San Antonio) seems to be pretty apparent that the at-large match allocation was done wrong and if corrected would swing somewhere around 40-50 state delegates to Obama's favor. If that, along with an issue in SD-13 where there is rumor that Clinton actually may have missed viability but this was overlooked so as to avoid an outright riot on the floor, Obama indeed will have won a 38-29 split without too much worry.

Also, and we will be writing this up tomorrow, I have completed an analysis of the results by the 31 state senate districts. Of those, Obama will have won at least 18, and possibly 19 giving him in either case a controlling majority in election the state credentials, rules, and nominations committees at the June State Convention. This is important because the nominations committee selects 3 "Unpledged" Add-On delegates which clearly, would be Obama, effectively giving Obama +3 more national delegates.  

Fascinating stuff... (0.00 / 0)
...also very scarey to think about how ugly it really gets in the trenches.  The stories coming out of TX are enough to turn your stomach.  And this is Dem on Dem violence not from the dark side.

Sounds like there will be a slew of lawyers and campaign operatives in TX for quite a while.  Too bad because their services would be helpful elsewhere.

[ Parent ]
Poll and delegate update | 30 comments
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