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Here are the latest polling averages:
Democratic Nomination Primary Schedule
| State |
Date |
Polls |
Obama |
Clinton |
P. Del |
| Pennsylvania |
Apr 22 |
3 |
40.7% |
50.3% |
158 |
| Guam |
May 03 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
4 |
| Indiana |
May 06 |
1 |
40.0% |
25.0% |
72 |
| North Carolina |
May 06 |
3 |
51.3% |
36.0% |
115 |
| West Virginia |
May 13 |
2 |
24.5% |
49.0% |
28 |
| Kentucky |
May 20 |
1 |
29.0% |
58.0% |
51 |
| Oregon |
May 20 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
52 |
| Puerto Rico |
Jun 01 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
55 |
| Montana |
Jun 03 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
16 |
| South Dakota |
Jun 03 |
1 |
-- |
-- |
15 |
In terms of delegates Pennsylvania and North Carolina just about cancel each other out right now, as do Indiana and West Virginia. Speaking of canceling each other out, it turns out that while Clinton gained a delegate in Texas, Obama appears to have gained a delegate in Mississippi. So, the pledged delegate count stays at 1415.5--1,253.5, and the gap doesn't appear to be shrinking anytime soon.
The presents a serious problem for Clinton, because Obama will reach 1,627 pledged delegates on May 20th. So, the first say that Clinton can reduce the pledged delegate gap from its current size will also be the day when Obama reaches 50% + 1 in pledged delegates. Further, between now and then Obama will continue to close the gap in terms of superdelegates. Given that Obama already leads by nine delegates even with Michigan and Florida included, the situation could be particularly grim for Clinton on April 19th, when most of the 55 uncommitteed Michigan delegates are selected. Assuming continued superdelegate gains and that Obama wins the clear majority of the uncommitted Michigan delegates, by May 7th Obama could be ahead by 60-70 delegates even with Michigan and Florida included.
I'm starting to see the campaign slowly resolve itself. While I wish there wasn't such a large gap until the Pennsylvania primary, and while I wish there wasn't such a large gap from the end of the voting until the convention, it is becoming increasingly difficult to see how Clinton manages to push the campaign past June. Her superdelegate lead won't last, she can't make up any significant ground in pledged delegates, and Obama won't have zero Michigan delegates. Add all of those together, and in a few weeks time I won't be the only one who refers to Obama as the presumptive nominee.
See also: Ultimate Delegate Math and Delegate Math Myth and Fact.
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