Nomination At A Glance, April 1st

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 12:28


Here are the latest polling averages:

Democratic Nomination Primary Schedule
State Date Polls Obama Clinton P. Del
Pennsylvania Apr 22 3 40.7% 50.3% 158
Guam May 03 -- -- -- 4
Indiana May 06 1 40.0% 25.0% 72
North Carolina May 06 3 51.3% 36.0% 115
West Virginia May 13 2 24.5% 49.0% 28
Kentucky May 20 1 29.0% 58.0% 51
Oregon May 20 -- -- -- 52
Puerto Rico Jun 01 -- -- -- 55
Montana Jun 03 -- -- -- 16
South Dakota Jun 03 1 -- -- 15

In terms of delegates Pennsylvania and North Carolina just about cancel each other out right now, as do Indiana and West Virginia. Speaking of canceling each other out, it turns out that while Clinton gained a delegate in Texas, Obama appears to have gained a delegate in Mississippi. So, the pledged delegate count stays at 1415.5--1,253.5, and the gap doesn't appear to be shrinking anytime soon.

The presents a serious problem for Clinton, because Obama will reach 1,627 pledged delegates on May 20th. So, the first say that Clinton can reduce the pledged delegate gap from its current size will also be the day when Obama reaches 50% + 1 in pledged delegates. Further, between now and then Obama will continue to close the gap in terms of superdelegates. Given that Obama already leads by nine delegates even with Michigan and Florida included, the situation could be particularly grim for Clinton on April 19th, when most of the 55 uncommitteed Michigan delegates are selected. Assuming continued superdelegate gains and that Obama wins the clear majority of the uncommitted Michigan delegates, by May 7th Obama could be ahead by 60-70 delegates even with Michigan and Florida included.

I'm starting to see the campaign slowly resolve itself. While I wish there wasn't such a large gap until the Pennsylvania primary, and while I wish there wasn't such a large gap from the end of the voting until the convention, it is becoming increasingly difficult to see how Clinton manages to push the campaign past June. Her superdelegate lead won't last, she can't make up any significant ground in pledged delegates, and Obama won't have zero Michigan delegates. Add all of those together, and in a few weeks time I won't be the only one who refers to Obama as the presumptive nominee.

See also: Ultimate Delegate Math and Delegate Math Myth and Fact.

Chris Bowers :: Nomination At A Glance, April 1st

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Nomination At A Glance, April 1st | 13 comments
MI undecided (0.00 / 0)
the situation could be particularly grim for Clinton on April 19th, when most of the 55 uncommitteed Michigan delegates are selected.

I've been curious about if, when and how this would happen.  Do you have a link to the source of this information or details on how this is happening?

Me too (0.00 / 0)
I always figured they would go to the convention as uncommitted, or might even join Hillary as some sort of "count the Michigan vote" bloc.

It really would be devastating to Clinton if these 55 uncommitted delegates pledged for Obama, as they should.

[ Parent ]
Link (4.00 / 1)
[ Parent ]
Indiana (4.00 / 1)
Why isn't anyone doing more polling in Indiana? The only one is that Howie-Gauge poll from Feb 17-18, with the huge undecided segment?
Oh, I'm afraid the deflector shield will be quite operational (4.00 / 2)
the poll numbers continue to slide in Pennsylvania. Time to rewrite the expectations. "Clinton never planned for a blow out there, we always knew it would be a tough contest, but we've won another big state. cough by five points cough"

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare
HAHAHAHAH (0.00 / 0)
"Oh, I'm afraid the deflector shield will be quite operational"

hahahaha - best comment ever...and I read it in my head using the emperor's voice

[ Parent ]
Obama should short circuit Clinton's credentials committee threat (4.00 / 1)
Seems to me that once Obama reaches 1,627, he should agree to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations thereby depriving Clinton of the one argument she has to continue the campaign. There would be no reason not to seat those delegations at that point because even with them Obama would have a majority of the pledged delegates. Once he did that, what reason would there be for the superdelegates to withhold their support from the winner of a majority of the pledged delegates? The race would end and even Clinton would be forced to admit it and we could finally begin the general election campaign.
1627 (0.00 / 0)
The 1627 goal is assuming Michigan and Florida aren't seated. If they are somehow seated, the halfway point goes up, depending on how many seats they get (whether the delegations are halved, for example), so it's not risk-free for Obama. Clinton won't be forced to admit anything, unless Obama gets to the new goal -- and even then she'd just move on to the desperate spin about how pledged delegates aren't really pledged and like superdelegates are free to vote for anyone they want to.
[ Parent ]
the other drawback is... (0.00 / 0)
Although it is not the official criterion and is biased against caucus states, the total national vote does have a certain ring to it.  Adding in these votes (esp. MI) to Clinton's total has the danger of making Obama's victory look like a fluke.

Incidentally, I have noticed the Clinton campaign sometimes refer to national vote of Democrats, which presumably uses exit polls to subtract off the independent/Republican contribution.  There's a huge number of these arguments once you start dreaming them up.


New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

[ Parent ]
Again, if Obama picks up 8 superdelegates/week, he'll clinch in June (0.00 / 0)
Obama has picked up 64 super delgates since super Tuesday, so he's definately on track to meet that goal through the nominating season.  Adding those to your projected pledged delegates, then Obama will surpass 2024 possibly before June and the last contests.

Once Obama surpasses Clinton in the super delegate count then all that will be left to do is the counting.  The fight to the convention talk is necessary at this point to keep the donors, donating and the troops pumped.  But once the super delegate lead is breached by Obama, the race is finished, donations will fall off even faster, the troops will be very demoralized. The new Clinton narrative is interesting, Obama doesn't want you to vote.  Obama will dispel that with one campaign appearance but I guess it's worth trying. The talk about it's time for Clinton to quit are totally stupid and counterproductive.  

Another thing, I don't think any of the supers want to end up being the "deciding" vote.  Maybe it's a trickle now, but pretty soon if the supers wait until the last state decides then the undecided's are going to be hounded all summer.  Would you want to endure that?  Do YOU want to be hated unfairly by half the Democratic party?  I'm surprised that no bloggers have caught on to that fact yet.  Make an issue of it on one of your front page posts Chris.  The MSM is obviously to brain dead to have figured it out.  Except for Chuck Todd, that dude always gets it right.

 

Hear! Hear! (4.00 / 2)
The talk about it's time for Clinton to quit are totally stupid and counterproductive.

Exactly. Not everybody believes that the Inevitable is no longer viable, much less not inevitable, and unless it's proved to them, we'll never hear the end of it. A Clinton bail-out now would provide a he-stole-it myth that we certainly don't need murking up the waters for November.

[ Parent ]
has Obama dropped out of the GE public system? (0.00 / 0)
It seems to me the issue dropped off the radar, but I guess he really meant that he will wait until he is the nominee and talks to McCain.  I think opting out is good and would have already been forgotten (yes, I think that means I agree with Jerome.)



New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

If Obama can beat McCain while conceding MI and FL... (0.00 / 0)
he really is a great politician.  I'm skeptical.
Nomination At A Glance, April 1st | 13 comments





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