Here are the latest polling averages in the remaining states and territories, along with crude delegate projections based on those averages:
Democratic Nomination Primary Schedule
State
Date
O %
C %
P. Del
Obama Del
Clinton Del
Pennsylvania
Apr 22
41.8%
48.2%
158
74
84
Guam
May 03
--
--
4
2
2
Indiana
May 06
43.0%
52.0%
72
33
39
North Carolina
May 06
51.3%
36.0%
115
66
49
West Virginia
May 13
24.5%
49.0%
28
9
19
Kentucky
May 20
29.0%
58.0%
51
17
34
Oregon
May 20
--
--
52
27
25
Puerto Rico
Jun 01
--
--
55
23
32
Montana
Jun 03
--
--
16
8
8
South Dakota
Jun 03
--
--
15
8
7
Total
June 10
--
--
566
267
299
These numbers provide two key insights:
First, Obama clearly still has some work to do. While dropping a net of 32 pledged delegates to Clinton in the remaining states would hardly be crippling to his campaign, it also wouldn't be great. In terms of general election momentum, the last thing Obama needs is to stumble home to the nomination, with Clinton winning the majority of the remaining states and delegates. In terms of winning the nomination, Obama also doesn't want to give Clinton any light at all, especially considering how the narrative is starting to focus on her slim hopes to win the nomination. The Obama goal should be to at least split the remaining delegates, and pull out victories in Indiana, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota. Not only would that close off any possible remaining paths to the nomination for Clinton, it would also shield Obama from any negative momentum that might accrue by falling backward into the nomination.
Second, these numbers show just how inaccurate it is to measure progress in the campaign by looking at who won what states. Specifically, even though Clinton is projected to win both Pennsylvania and Indiana by decent margins right now, in the April 22nd to May 6th period she is only projected to gain one pledged delegate on Obama. This is because, in terms of delegates, how much someone wins a state by matters far more than just winning a state, and Obama is way ahead in North Carolina. In fact, winning congressional districts is actually way more important than winning states, given that 65% of pledged delegates are determined at the congressional district level, while only 35% are determined at the statewide level. Further, which congressional districts you win matter just as much as which states a candidate wins since, just like states, the number of delegates in each district varies significantly (the range is from a low of three delegates to a high of ten delegates). Yet further, it also matters how much you win congressional districts by, since different amounts of delegates are handed out for different levels of victory. In other words, the strategy for winning delegates in the Democratic nomination campaign has little or no bearing on the strategy to win the Electoral College, making electability arguments on who won what primary state a truly pointless apples and oranges exercise. We might as well argue which NBA player would do better in the NFL based on their basketball skills.
As far as ending the nomination campaign goes, Obama is 8% away from doing that in Pennsylvania, and 10% away from doing that in Indiana. Given the direction of the campaign and Obama's current resource advantage, both seem tantalizing within reach. However, even though I will be voting for him tonight at my local Democratic Party ward meeting, I will still remain utterly shocked if he is able to win my home state of Pennsylvania.
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