Since everyone knows I live in Pennsylvania, over the past month, whenever I have talked to someone in politics who hails from a different state, I am always asked how intense campaign in Philadelphia is right now. My truthful answer is that it is a major event, and we are getting a lot of attention, but it still doesn't compare to either the final month of the 2004 general election or even the final two weeks of the 2007 mayoral and city council primaries.
Sure, back before the March 24th voter registration deadline, it was difficult to walk anywhere in Center City without a young, eager Obama volunteer asking if you were registered to vote. Sure, the sight of cable news trucks driving around the city has become a regular occurrence. Sure, frequently you will run past people talking about the primary on street corners, hear them on mass transit, or in pretty much every cafes or bar. Sure, there is at least one, and frequently more, campaign events to attend every night in the city. And yes, there are even a few campaign commercials. However, it still isn't anywhere near what happens to Philadelphia during a Presidential general election.
What I think some people miss is that if you live in a swing state, especially if you live in the second largest swing state in the nation (Pennsylvania), not to mention in the largest city in a swing state in the entire country (Philadelphia), then no primary could ever possibly reach the level of intensity of the 2004 general election. Four years ago, campaigns and outside groups spent more than $50,000,000 in Pennsylvania. Nearly six million people in Pennsylvania voted. The entire city of Philadelphia was one long parade for John Kerry during the month of October, culminating in a 120,000 person rally featuring Bill Clinton one week before the election. During the final two weeks, it quite literally was difficult to walk down the street even in my West Philly neighborhood without being canvassed, seeing a pro-Kerry / anti-Bush sign, or hearing a van drive by promoting the Democratic ticket. That was an intense campaign. What is happening here now, while certainly a spirited election, just isn't in the same league of intensity. Turnout, spending and campaign rallies won't even reach one-third of the levels they hit in 2004.
As intense and record-breaking as we perceive this primary to be, it still doesn't compare to general elections. To put this in perspective, so far roughly as many people are voting in Democratic primary states as voted for Michael Dukakis in 1988 (source). While that is excellent for a primary, it just doesn't compare to a general election, much less a general election in a top five swing state. Consider, for example, how Obama has gained significant ground in both Pennsylvania and North Carolina over the last two weeks. This isn't just momentum--it is also part of the longstanding pattern in this primary campaign where Obama makes up ground in states once the campaigning starts in earnest. This is bears such a strong resemblance to the way that challengers always make up ground on incumbents once the campaign begins in earnest, that it is difficult to draw any other conclusion that a large percentage of primary voters are not paying very close attention until the campaign shifts to their home state.
Just wanted to offer that perspective. Sure, it is a spirited campaign here in Philadelphia, but it just doesn't compare to what the city is like during general elections in presidential campaigns. Anyway, I'm off to my local ward meeting, where tonight we make our endorsement for President. I will be arguing the case for Obama, and wearing the cool button on the right, which the President of the Drexel Democrats made for me. It is in the best spirit of DIY online, progressive campaigning. I'll be back with an update on the meeting at around midnight, after pub trivia. |
