As of 10:00 a.m. this morning, 20% of the registered Democrats in the two divisions (precincts) where I hand out literature had already voted. We could hit 50% Democratic turnout with a rate like that.
Also, AlterNet has a guide to the Pennsylvania primary, where I am quoted extensively. Check it out.
Finally, to go out on a limb, I don't think that the final uptick toward Clinton as registered in Zogby is accurate. (Yeah, it's a real stretch not to trust Zogby). I was looking over primary polls today, and Survey USA never once overstated Obama's performance. While overall Survey USA has been quite accurate, in the three states where they were off by more than a handful--Alabama, Missouri and South Carolina--every time their margin skewed more than ten points in favor of Clinton. I also thought ttuje had a convincing analysis of the polls arguing why both the pro-Obama outlier of PPP and the pro-Clinton outlier of Suffolk are wrong. So, my gut tells me that the 6% gap we have seen in most polls is accurate, and that when the undecided are factored in the final margin will rise to 7%. So, I'm going with Clinton 53.5%--46.5% Obama, with a delegate breakdown of Clinton 85--73 Obama. Kind of a mushy prediction that doesn't break strongly one way or the other, but so it goes.
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