Pollster.com, which truly rocks, has a new chart that is worth a look. It shows how closely people are paying attention to this presidential election compared with previous cycles. According to the chart, national interest in the presidential campaign is much higher at this point in the 2008 campaign than it was in any other campaign over the past twenty years.
Why is this? Certainly, part of that is because the primaries will be starting early. Also, I imagine the heavier news coverage of the campaign has also played a role. No doubt, the national desire to get beyond Bush is another factor. Personally, however, my favorite explanation is the rise of grassroots progressive activism, and even of progressive culture, which have led to more people paying attention to elections, especially elections of Democrats and progressives. Just wanted to throw that out there to combat the inevitable complaints that appear in comments about how “its way too early for all of this.” More people than ever diagree with that sentimnet.
And now, onto the averages…
Last update: August 1, 4:00 pm eastern State polls taken from June 13th through July 30th
Democratic Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Richardson
Net Avail Cash
Jun 30
Q2
$29.6M
$33.6M
$11.8M
$6.9M
Iowa
December
6
25.0%
16.7%
26.2%
9.8%
New Hampshire
December
6
34.8%
24.0%
10.3%
8.2%
Nevada
Jan 19
2
39.5%
16.5%
14.0%
6.5%
South Carolina
Jan 22
5
34.6%
28.0%
16.0%
2.2%
Florida
Jan 29
7
39.3%
17.8%
11.8%
3.2%
National
Feb 05
NA
36.0%
23.7%
11.2%
2.5%
Republican Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Giuliani
Romney
Thompson
McCain
Net Avail Cash
June 30
Q2
$14.7M
$12.1M
$3M (?)
$0.1M
Iowa
December
5
16.4%
23.8%
15.0%
11.2%
New Hampshire
December
6
20.7%
27.2%
12.8%
14.8%
Nevada
Jan 19
2
19.0%
21.5%
20.5%
12.0%
South Carolina
Jan 22
4
24.8%
7.5%
22.0%
15.0%
Florida
Jan 29
6
27.2%
8.7%
21.5%
10.8%
National
Feb 05
NA
24.4%
9.7%
19.3%
15.2%
In case you were wondering, my averages are different from those at Pollster.com, because I use a simple mean while they use a trendline system. Mystery Pollster writes about that here.
Methodological notes can be found in the extended entry.
“Net Available Cash” equals cash on hand minus debts minus amount raised for general election. More information can be found at Open Secrets. Current numbers are not precise, as all data is not yet available.
For Democrats, early state polls that only include Clinton, Edwards and Obama in the questions were not included.
For Democrats, early state polls that include Gore in the question were only included when Gore-less results were unavailable. One Florida poll included Gore.
February 5th is not actually a national primary, but due to the large number of states holding nomination events on that date, national polls are used as a placeholder.
Calendar notes
I am currently projecting both Iowa and New Hampshire to take place in December of 2007. Currently, the two states are working together, behind the scenes, in order to secure that they are first. Given that Iowa wants to take place eight days before New Hampshire, given that New Hampshire wants to take place seven days before any other non-Iowa state, and given that Nevada is scheduled to take place on January 19, 2008, that means the latest Iowa could be held is Friday, January 4th, 2008. Since Iowa is obviously not going to hold their caucuses either that close to New Year's, much less on a Friday, at this point December seems practically a foregone conclusion. Basically, we are now five months from the Iowa caucus, so anyone who was still doing so can stop saying it is way too early to talk about this stuff.
Interestingly, Michigan is currently looking at five possible dates: February 9th, January 12th, January 5th, December 15th, and December 8th. They could very well move up after Iowa and New Hampshire announce the December move. I bet they move up to January 12th, but given the wide range of possibilities (not to mention the lack of recent Michigan polls), it is best to wait for more info before including Michigan in this table. Still, no matter if, where and when Michigan moves, Iowa and New Hampshire will be first. They are willing to hold events in November, or even October, if that is what it takes to stay first.
South Carolina, currently scheduled for January 29th on the Democratic side and February 2nd on the Republican side, has also threatened to move ahead of Florida, which is scheduled for January 29th. It would be a real shock if South Carolina did not move up.
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