Thought experiment - delegate count after a bad 2 months for Obama

by: JC

Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 19:59

I believe, the absolute worst he can do, based on the Slate calculator, is lose 63 pledged delegates.

That is before included MI and FL.
 

I put NC +6 for Obama
IN +10 for Clinton
WV and KY +40 for Clinton
OR, MN, SD, +10 for Clinton
PR +20 for Clinton

Now - is this likely?  No - but the common thought was that Obama would win NC by 15.  This doesn't look likely.

The common thought was that Obama and Clinton would be neck and neck in IN - and this isn't bearing out either.

So, just take these reversals, and assume they continue, which is possible.

In this scenario, Obama is still out ahead, by 100 delegates.

Using Bowers "Clinton Numbers" - this would put Obama's pledged delegate lead at 30.

The CURRENT super-delegate lead for Clinton is 20 - though I expect this to close, to almost nothing.

Still - with a string of victories, this will give the super-delegates pause, especially if the media won't stop pushing the complete non-issue of Wright.

At any rate, the worst case is getting more likely - though still unlikely, at this point.  Either a very bloodied Obama, or a Clinton that has basically voided the pledged delegate vote, and the Democratic parties most loyals constituencies, and negated the youth enthusiasm.