Obama needs an Edwards endorsement (0.00 / 0)

That would really help. Get the biggest souther white working glass white guy to come out and say "The whole Wright thing has been nonsense, when we started our campaign we wanted to bring systemic change to Washington, and Barack Obama through all this has been pushing that fundamental and critical goal."

He can then blather on about how it thinks Hillary is great, but is excited by Obama and feels like O has received a bad deal and that the media and country has lost focus of what is really important. He can say of course he'll support Hillary, but he wants American's to get back to seeing the great potential in the Obama campaign.

It might scuttle his hopes of getting an AG spot in a Hillary WhiteHouse, but its a low risk gamble since Obama has the math, he just needs his "magic" restored a little.

The reward: Obama should give him AG or Supreme Court seat - John can pick whichever he wants more. Maybe AG for four years then SCOTUS seat. Thats more than Hillary will give him.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

---

by: Will @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 18:06:28 PM UTC

IN / NC (0.00 / 0)

Im with Obama, but not optimistic about May 6.  I think Clinton is going to win IN, and do quite well in NC, and intra-party strife is only going to get worse.  The SD's should have declared for Obama a long time ago and saved the Party this misery.  

---

by: global yokel @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 18:07:40 PM UTC

disagree about the superdelegates (0.00 / 0)

I saw a poll the other day that said something like 58% of Clinton supporters expect her to be the nominee (not just: believe she still has a chance - they actually expect her to win). Don't ask me why they think this; maybe they don't keep up with Chris' updates with the fervidness that some of us do. But regardless, given this fact, the intra-party strife would have been much worse if the Supers had thrown it to Obama before Pennsylvania. It would've looked like they were taking the nomination out of the hands of the voters, and in a sense they would have been. This would have been the best possible way to alienate the Clinton voters that Obama is going to need to win over between now and November. As it is, regardless of the outcome on May 6th, people will start to notice that even with 2-1 blowouts in WV, KY, and PR, Clinton can only gain about 50 pledged delegates. The nomination may go on for another month after that, but by that point the voters will have had their say, and Clinton will have lost, and her supporters can't complain about having the nomination stolen from her.

Of course, the ideal thing would be for every superdelegate to endorse now, and have exactly equal numbers of them come out for Obama and Clinton. Then they would just negate themselves into irrelevance, and no one would have to worry about them.

---

by: Chachy @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 18:57:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It'll be a virtual tie in Indiana (0.00 / 0)

and a 12 point victory in North Carolina for Obama.  He's going to lose Kentucky and West Virginia, but everywhere else, he's either favored, or isn't that far behind (Puerto Rico, where I think he got a big endorsement, as I remember it).  He's going to win Oregon, Montana and South Dakota, and I suspect we'll get a Clinton concession on the evening of June 3rd (unless she just gets blown out on May 6 - but even if she does, I suspect she'll go for another month, she'll have the money to do so).

---

by: expatriatedjerseyan @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 18:22:00 PM UTC

thats a most favorable interpretation of recent poll data (0.00 / 0)

and does not account for any impact for Wright the past few days.  

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

---

by: Will @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 19:32:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Big Puerto Rico endorsement now a loser... (0.00 / 0)

That was from the Puerto Rican governor, who has now indicted in a campaign finance scandal.

If Obama doesn't win next Tuesday, the damage to Obama will probably be irreparable, even if the campaign does finally come to an end sometime in June.

---

by: leshrac55 @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 19:36:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Super Delegates (0.00 / 0)

I don't mean to be petty, but when I look at the Democratic Convention Watch I see that 10 SDs have endorsed in the last on April 28th through today and the count is 7-3 Obama.  

Effectively, the SD count is actually tied.  I say this because the Pelosi Club will give him a gain of +7 and the Add-On SDs are relatively easy to predict and it seems very likely that Obama will pick up a +12 with the yet to declare add-on SDs.  

For all intents and purposes, this contest is over.  Obama will win the pledged delegates by 130 or more and he will win the SDs by 50+.  Sadly, he may finish the season looking weak and that could hurt in the general election.  

---

by: richgreer @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 18:33:56 PM UTC

Agreed (0.00 / 0)

This is what is going to sting.  He has the nomination, but he'll have a string of losses, unless he gets a blowout in NC.

---

by: JC @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 18:40:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

not really... (4.00 / 1)

he's likely to win in SD and Montana, as well as Oregon.  It's pretty even from here on out...

---

by: seabrook @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 18:53:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not too sure (0.00 / 0)

though I hope you are right.

After all - we all believe he would win NC by 15%, up to a couple of weeks ago.

That doesn't look as if it is going to happen now.

The thing that it looks like is happening, is that the "thrill of the new" has eroded from Obama - so whatever his advantages initially - both in his orating style, his message for change, AND his formidable boots on the ground 50 state strategy - has been negated with the obscene focus on guilt by association for Obama, on Wright, and the fact that Clinton has played good catch-up.

Of course, if Im' wrong, I'll happily buy you a beer, if you are right!

---

by: JC @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 19:37:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A couple of points (0.00 / 0)

Thanks for the update - given the shift against Obama the last couple of weeks, good to see this reflected in the numbers.

Although I must say, even with the shift, Obama looks like he has it wrapped up, when you include all the superdelegate permutations you count.

I do hope he doesn't "back into" this nomination, in regards to losing all the last contests, except for NC and Oregon (and even Oregon, there hasn't been enough polling to be certain.  The last SUSA poll in April, was before the latest Wright blow up.  

One last question, if you would, on superdelegates.  Aren't a large part of the "remaining" superdelegates, that are left, FL and MI superdelegates?  I don't know if you are including those in the count or not.  Or whether it makes a difference in the math, regarding the fact that really, there are even less super-delegates outstanding than is generally acknowledged.

---

by: JC @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 18:39:11 PM UTC

Interesting that Obama (0.00 / 0)

gives Hillary more delegates than she gives herself. Somehow I can't see the reverse ever happening.  

---

by: Blue @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 18:43:32 PM UTC

Once more the superdelegate question for MI and FL (0.00 / 0)

For anybody reading.

How many total superdelegates remaining?
Of that total, how many are FL and MI superdelegates?
What are the outcomes whether those superdelegates are seated?

---

by: JC @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 18:44:17 PM UTC

convention (0.00 / 0)

Any time there has been a opportunity for Obama to put this race away it doesn't happen. According to the latest polls, Hillary is up around 8-9% in Indiana and Obama is up around 10-15% in NC. I expect that's where'll we'll be on May 6th, with Obama having a 10% win in NC, and Clinton a 10% in Indiana. Then the thing just drags on and on and on and on and on.

---

by: boomersun @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 19:00:10 PM UTC

I think it is stupid to include MI and FL (4.00 / 1)

in any predictions or assessments. Even a 50-50 split confuses the matter. As of today, its 0-0 for MI and 0-0 for FL. 0 + 0 = 0

The total delegates needed to win the dem nomination is 2025.

2025 is reality-based. The rest is stupid, waste-my-time, imaginary, guesswork. Sorry but that is what i think.

---

by: aiko @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 19:05:04 PM UTC

don't include disputed states (0.00 / 0)

Agree. Just leave out Michigan and Florida until there is an official update on their status that changes the status quo which is that their delegates won't be seated.

---

by: redwards95 @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 20:06:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

thats the CW among all others who cover this (0.00 / 0)

including dem convention watch and msnbc, my favorites.  

---

by: aiko @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 20:24:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

your favorites will not determine what happens (0.00 / 0)

there are three possibilities:
1) Clinton is far enough behind in total delegates (not just pledged delegates) that the disputed states don't matter;
2) there is a deal that both campaigns accept;
3) there will be a floor vote on whether to seat the disputed delegations.
I think 2 is the least likely outcome, but could be wrong.  Chris includes the disputed delegations in his count, if I understand correctly, because they describe the relation between 1 and 3, both of which are very real possibilities.
In retrospect, it is clearly the zero-delegates penalty that is keeping this issue alive.  If the penalty had been 50% no one would be contesting it today.
Personally, I think the Obama campaign is making a tactical mistake in not pursuing 2 more aggressively; I think it's to his advantage to kill the uncertainty.

---

by: jbj @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 22:46:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

bottom line imho (0.00 / 0)

MI and FL will not determine who is nominee. Nominee will be determined in early June at the latest, months before the convention. MI and FL will be seated but only after the dem nominee is determined. Having long discussions about delegate counts using michigan and florida is a lame exercise and not reality based. Blog posts like this keep this idea alive, a total waste of time.

---

by: aiko @ Thu May 01, 2008 at 00:22:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Would love an end next Tuesday... (0.00 / 0)

But as Matt would say, the most annoying result is probably going to be the actual result.  Given the events of the past few days, I'd say this is probably even more apt... So that probably means something like a 9 point win for Clinton in IN and a 9 point win in NC for Obama.

It'll likely prolong this battle to the point of no return... meaning, that a good portion of Clinton supporters will refuse to support Obama.  Why?  Because Clinton is basically using Republican attacks now to try and win votes, which means those attacks are going to be adopted by Clinton supporters, which means they'll be susceptible to those same attacks against Obama when they come from John McCain.  Ending this in early May is probably the last chance to minimize the damage, but it seems increasingly unlikely now.

---

by: leshrac55 @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 19:33:02 PM UTC

Most Annoying Scenario... (0.00 / 0)

Looking at how this week has unfolded, two things seem clear.

1.  Clinton has next to no chance of winning the nomination.

2.  Obama looks more likely than not to lose Indiana, and (assuming he doesn't do much better among white voters in NC than he did in PA) will probably win by NC by single digits (my current worst-case scenario for him is a 7.5% win.

I think Obama may have hit a turning point this week in terms of the media narrative, but it may have come too late for these two states.  Even assuming the news coverage is essentially positive, there is still the stink of Obama = loser to overcome.  The remaining contests come too quickly, and it's easy to see him slowly diminished as they wear on.

That said, I don't think we're heading into a Carter 1980-style implosion.  He'll maintain his core of support, still win OR, MT, and probably SD, and continue to close the superdelegate gap.  NC+IN will erase Hillary's razor-thin bullshit popular vote lead, although it seems likely given the landslide Hillary will get in KY and WV that she'll end up the popular vote "winner" by the bmetric that includes Michigan and doesn't factor undeclared as for Obama.  Which, of course, won't be enough for superdelegates.

So, Obama will be declared the nominee some time in June, but he'll have limped to the finish line.  In some ways, it seems the worst of all possible outcomes, barring Hillary taking it to the convention.  And I don't see any way around it provided recent polling bears out next week.  

---

by: telephasic @ Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 22:34:05 PM UTC