| The tables at the bottom of this article show how the last two weeks have fluctuated in this cycle. Again, note that Obama has consistently outperformed his numbers in Southern States, while Clinton has outperformed her polling outside of the Mason Dixon.
Shortly after the South Carolina primary, I calculated that Obama had received a 13 point bounce as a result of his blowout victory. Clinton's bounce in the national polls seems of a similar magnitude:
| Pollster |
Margin Pre-PA |
Current Margin |
Swing |
| National Average |
9.7 |
-1.5 |
11.2 |
| Gallup |
10 |
-2 |
12 |
| Rasmussen |
8 |
-2 |
10 |
Of course, there is no national primary. Here is the trend in Indiana (also showing polls that have prior results):
| Pollster |
Margin Pre-PA |
Current Margin |
Swing |
| Polling Average |
2 |
-6 |
-8 |
| Downs Center |
5 |
-7 |
-12 |
| ARG |
-5 |
-9 |
-4 |
Clinton's lead of 6 points heading into the weekend is larger than her lead at the same time in Ohio (was 2.8, won by 10) and Pennsylvania (lead by 4.7, won by 8.6). Given what we know from exit polling about how states like Indiana have finished, it would be reasonable to expect a Clinton win of 10 to 15 points. However, in Indiana Clinton has already picked up 6 points. It will be interesting to see if she can maintain the momentum.
North Carolina, as I have shown, is a very different case. First, here is the summary:
| Pollster |
Margin Pre-PA |
Post-PA |
Recent |
Swing |
| Polling Average |
15.5 |
12 |
8.2 |
-8 |
| ARG |
|
10 |
11 |
1 |
| Rasmussen |
23 |
14 |
9 |
15 |
| IA |
15 |
-2 |
5 |
-10 |
| PPP |
20 |
|
12 |
-8 |
| SUSA |
10 |
|
5 |
-5 |
The final weekend in North Carolina will be dramatic. There is a well set tendency for Obama to outperform in Southern States. Obama's 8.2 point lead is, at this point, smaller than he had in South Carolina (led by 15 going into the weekend, won by 25), Virginia (led by 17, won by 29) but larger than his lead going into Alabama (trailed by 3, won by 14).
However, Clinton is clearly gaining both Nationally and in North Carolina. The stage is set for her to get within 5, and doing so while at the same time winning Indiana may be enough to seriously damage Obama. But this very expectation may be enough to effectively end this race. The evidence has consistently shown that Obama outperforms in Southern States, and if that pattern holds he should win by 10 or more.
Polling Results Averages:
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STATE BLOGS
