Obama Wins Guam by 7 Votes ?!

by: tremayne

Sat May 03, 2008 at 19:22

The final and largest village in Guam came through big for Hillary Clinton, almost enough to erase a 204 vote deficit. The final numbers:

Obama: 2,264

Clinton: 2,257

Recount? I wonder what kind of ballots they use in Guam. Hanging chads? The pledged delegates will split 2-2 at any rate. Obama looks likely to secure a majority of the 5 superdelegates however.

UPDATE: A recount is imminent and will include a look at "spoiled" ballots and others that may be missing.

tremayne :: Obama Wins Guam by 7 Votes ?!

Tags: election results, Guam, (All Tags)

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Obama Wins Guam by 7 Votes ?! | 18 comments

are you sure (0.00 / 0)

Are you sure the numbers you put forth are actual votes? Surely more than 4,500 people voted.

by: boomersun @ Sat May 03, 2008 at 23:25:43 PM UTC

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Seems low (0.00 / 0)

But apparently the normal turnout in a Dem. primary is about 1,000.

by: tremayne @ Sat May 03, 2008 at 23:27:22 PM UTC

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In the last election for Governor (0.00 / 0)

the Democratic candidate got fewer than 20,000 votes. Considering Guam doesn't even get to vote in the general election, it's surprising that a quarter as many would turn out to vote yesterday.

by: rebrane @ Sun May 04, 2008 at 00:03:26 AM UTC

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isn't it a caucus? n/t (0.00 / 0)

End this war. Stop John McCain. Cindy McCain is filthy rich.

by: wiretapp @ Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:16:22 AM UTC

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for those who prefer winner-take-all (0.00 / 0)

Here's a good case where a 2-2 pledged delegate split really does seem to reflect the preferences of those who voted in Guam.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

by: Hopeful in NJ @ Sat May 03, 2008 at 23:30:19 PM UTC

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Big momentum game-changer! (4.00 / 2)

Clearly, this result from Guam is a stunning game-changer that completely alters the momentum in the race. Can Senator Clinton recover from this resounding defeat? Why did she lose? Was it a rejection of her gas tax holiday or was it a strong rebuke for her appearance on O'Reilly? Is she losing the votes of white people? Black people? Purple people? Or perhaps was it because she denounced Pastor Wright? Inquiring minds want to know!

No, I'm not serious. :)

by: Semblance @ Sat May 03, 2008 at 23:37:20 PM UTC

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It's because they're caucuses... (0.00 / 0)

That's why Clinton lost and why it doesn't count.

by: Aunt Martha @ Sun May 04, 2008 at 00:01:59 AM UTC

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It's because Clinton lost... (0.00 / 0)

That's why caucuses don't count.

As far as I remember, she campaigned just as hard for Iowa as anyone else. The same can be said pledged delegates, the actual vote totals, and pretty much every other metric out there. But she lost, so suddenly none of that counts.

by: Jack McMillin @ Sun May 04, 2008 at 00:35:09 AM UTC

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She lost because... (4.00 / 2)

...she simply can't "close the deal" with Pacific Islander working-class voters. Her campaign is doomed.

by: regnaD kciN @ Sun May 04, 2008 at 01:26:48 AM UTC

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The Tide is Turning! (0.00 / 0)

Proof right in the tide heartland, the Pacific Ocean. The question now is, is there any way Hillary can stop the momentum of an entire Ocean?

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

by: Will @ Sun May 04, 2008 at 15:55:51 PM UTC

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Hand-marked ballots (0.00 / 0)

DemConWatch had a picture of the ballot. They're hand-marked and hand-counted. So I wonder what would account for 10% of the ballots being spoiled? (Last link only works in Internet Explorer)

by: rebrane @ Sat May 03, 2008 at 23:58:09 PM UTC

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Yeah (0.00 / 0)

That's a lot. Also, there are were new registrants in Dededo than there were total votes cast. Only county like that.

by: tremayne @ Sun May 04, 2008 at 00:04:34 AM UTC

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I mean (0.00 / 0)

"MORE new registrants"

by: tremayne @ Sun May 04, 2008 at 00:06:40 AM UTC

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if you really wonder about the ballots (0.00 / 0)

There's a sample ballot at

http://demconwatch.blogspot.co...

Click on it to enlarge.

Three notable things are:

1. Hillary is spelled Hilary on the Sample Ballot.
2. You can choose between different people to be the 8 potential delegates.*
3. If you try to vote for both Obama and Clinton delegates your ballot is VOID.

*of course, they get half votes, hence the 4-4 split is really 2-2.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

by: Hopeful in NJ @ Sun May 04, 2008 at 00:01:20 AM UTC

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Well, there you go (0.00 / 0)

#3 probably accounts for the high spoilage rate

by: Valatan @ Sun May 04, 2008 at 03:05:55 AM UTC

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Feel the Guamentum! (4.00 / 1)

:)

http://www.ProgressFlorida.org

by: Ray Seaman @ Sun May 04, 2008 at 00:09:29 AM UTC

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I feel it (4.00 / 1)

Now, if only Obama could squeak out a 7 vote win in Indiana on Tuesday.

by: tremayne @ Sun May 04, 2008 at 00:35:43 AM UTC

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UPDATE (0.00 / 0)

A recount is imminent and will include a look at "spoiled" ballots and others that may be missing.

by: tremayne @ Sun May 04, 2008 at 00:40:18 AM UTC

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Obama Wins Guam by 7 Votes ?! | 18 comments

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