Indiana and North Carolina Open Thread

by: Matt Stoller

Mon May 05, 2008 at 22:32


Obama had an impressive rally in Indianapolis with huge numbers, while Ben Smith twitters "Last stop, Evansville. Clinton strongest I've ever seen her."  Poblano is predicting a double digit victory for Obama in North Carolina.  Here's where he sees the major difference between his prediction and the polling.

I think I know what the pollsters are doing wrong. They're calibrating black turnout to a proportion of the population, but not to a proportion of the Kerry vote. This is a significant mistake, because in some states, the vast majority of the available white voters will vote as Republicans -- meaning that black voters make up a larger share of what remains in the Democratic electorate. It may even be that the Obama campaign recognizes all of this, which is why they have devoted a disproportionate share of their resources to Indiana. But, we will know soon enough. I am prepared to be spectacularly wrong on Tuesday.

Al Giordano thinks that the 'Republican Prank Vote' of Rush Limbaugh and Fox News inspired voters will swing up to 5 points in some parts of North Carolina.

I don't have a good sense of what is happening in either state, but I'm going to guess based on some contacts in North Carolina that the terrain is more favorable to Obama than we're assuming.

This is an open thread on Indiana and North Carolina.  And Guam!  Don't forget Guam!

Update:  In keeping with my prediction of the most annoying outcome being the outcome, I'm going to say that Clinton wins Indiana 55-45, and Obama takes North Carolina by 53-47.  Clinton will come out of this weekend with a net gain of five or six delegates.

Matt Stoller :: Indiana and North Carolina Open Thread

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Indiana and North Carolina Open Thread | 27 comments
prediction (0.00 / 0)
Mid-single digit loss for Obama in Indiana and a double digit victory in North Carolina.
Good 'ol Scarborough is predicting a Clinton sweep (4.00 / 1)
I really just think he's bored now.
Rec'd for making me laugh n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Obama victory (4.00 / 5)
With respect to the primaries in Indiana and North Carolina it needs to be realized that anything less than a 30% upset for Clinton is a victory for Obama.    I say that because Obama is so far ahead that unless Clinton scores a major win (30% or more) Obama will move closer to clinching the nomination.  

Obama is on the verge of securing the pledged delegate vote.   Even with modest or poor performances in Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky and Oregon he will still certainly win the pledged delegate contest.   Will the super delegates override this?   Probably not.  

It's over.   Why can't we all accept this and embrace Obama as our nominee and work towards his victory in the general election?    

Well sort of (3.20 / 5)
Look a Clinton sweep or even a clear win in Indiana and a very near miss in NC will not be a 10-12 delegate win. It will be a 70-80 delegate win because it almost assures that FLA and Mich will be seated.
[ Parent ]
That doesn't make any sense (4.00 / 2)
 
[ Parent ]
Uprated because of undue , TR (4.00 / 1)
Not that I'm agreeing with your content but I don't know why you got a TR... I've never seen that kind of reaction here.

I don't know what you call a very near miss in NC... if Clinton wins NC, I agree that superdelegates will hesitate and look at the rest of the contests more carefully before making up their minds. The RBC meeting is not till May 31st so this alone won't have that kind of an impact. Oregon will be looked at carefully as well.

[ Parent ]
ditto on the TR abuse n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
As a baseball fan (4.00 / 2)
I know never ever ever to hope for the most positive outcome. Actually as a baseball fan I'm always doomed to hope against all rational thought for the most desirable outcome, and then on cue reality is manifest as the worst possible outcome and I am emotionally destroyed.  

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare
red sox fan older than 10? :) (0.00 / 0)
i love mookie wilson.
[ Parent ]
red sox? they won (0.00 / 0)
talk about most annoying results, this primary is northing.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare
[ Parent ]
i know (0.00 / 0)
that's why my response was targeted at those who can remember the 85 or so years prior to them winning :)

i love ray knight.

[ Parent ]
Not sure about popular vote in IN and NC... (0.00 / 0)
But Obama will gain delegates tomorrow.  One of the things his campaign is good at is delegate math.
I did detailed predictions over at dKos (0.00 / 0)
Boils down to this:

In Indiana, Clinton wins popular vote 53.2%-46.8% and nets out 4 delegates (38-34).

In North Carolina, Obama wins popular vote by 12.2% (56.1%-43.9%) and nets out 11 delegates (63-52).

More superdelegates come out for Obama after the vote.

In other words, nothing changes (4.00 / 3)
Not as a result of tomorrow.

The answer now seems to be an all-out attack on the Hillary campaign as undermining the Democratic Party's long-term chances for short-term gain, with a focus on the way she's undercutting progressive ideas and coalitions. Drive a huge wedge between her liberal supporters and the white conservatives she has been courting.

It might not change the outcome of primaries, but would help draw off enough supers to bring this thing to an end.

[ Parent ]
Something would change (0.00 / 0)
I think that if Obama's margin in NC is greater than Hillary's margin in IN, pundits would shut up already about Wright's impact on Obama's campaign and move on... or maybe that's just wishful thinking.

There was a time when I would watch a news network to learn something... now I just watch to see what they're obsessing about these days.

[ Parent ]
I think the narrative would change if the result is as expected (4.00 / 3)
Chuck Todd made the useful point on MSNBC tonight that after tomorrow, there will be more uncommitted superdelegates than delegates to be selected in the remaining contests.  The ball would be visibly in their court.  This has the potential for the math argument to start to really sink in.  And that gives the superdelegates more room to start moving.  They've already been trickling to Obama.  I'd expect that trickle to increase.  It would be more widely understood that what's left to be determined is their decision, not that of the electorate.  And I also think that if we got this NC/IN split that would be seen as good for Obama -- because it would mean that this awful week for him still wasn't enough to derail his campaign.

The only outcome that really prolongs the race is a Clinton win in NC.  Or maybe a very, very narrow Obama win there (with exit polling showing him losing ground with white voters).  But the tie goes to Obama.  The SD's have been looking for the cover to make the move.  The IN/NC split would be enough cover for enough SD's to make their preferences clear and that will be that.  

[ Parent ]
Noticed the same point by chuckie (0.00 / 0)
Just when you think that he's getting too conventional wisdom-y, he comes up with something sharp and new.
[ Parent ]
The real annoying outcome (0.00 / 0)
would be a 5-point Clinton win in Indiana and a 10-point Obama win in North Carolina. Nobody makes any significant headway, nobody has any reason to reconsider staying in the race, and end continues to not be in sight. Has the benefit of being predicted by the polls, too.

If Obama wins North Carolina by less than Clinton wins Indiana, that's trouble.

in that scenario (4.00 / 1)
I don't see how Clinton stays in.
[ Parent ]
Edwards (4.00 / 3)
Is it the kool aid I drank, or does it seem a little weird that Edwards refuses to endorse Obama because his wife likes Hillary?  Elizabeth is a great person, but she is not a party leader and her endorsement is akin to Tom Hanks. Edwards on the other hand could have made a difference in this race. I think this hurts him politically.  
with you (4.00 / 1)
been there this whole week. Edwards could have helped Obama recover from Wright (yeah, i know he polls say Wright is not making a difference - what a bunch of crap that is).

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare
[ Parent ]
he wants in the cabinet (0.00 / 0)
It's clear he doesn't want to anger the Clintons and thereby remove himself from consideration for a cabinet post in a Hillary administration in the unlikely event she wins the nomination.
[ Parent ]
It is internally logical for HRC to stay in no matter the outcome (0.00 / 0)
She's not quitting. The internal logic of her campaign is that:
A) He's likely to have more he's-not-electable scandals
B) The only vote that counts is the one at the convention

I'm sure by now that HRC actually believes both of these items to some extent or another. These two related arguments lead to the inescapable conclusion that the longer she hangs in there, the better off all of us will be. It also implies that it doesn't much matter how badly she loses anywhere, even in terms of delegates.

Mind you all, I'm talking internal, not external, logic here.

split decision (4.00 / 1)
I predict a comfortable Clinton win in Indiana and a blowout Obama win in North Carolina. The resulting Clinton spin will be that Indiana proves Obama is unelectable and that North Carolina doesn't count because it has too many black and smart people.
[ Parent ]
Add this in (0.00 / 0)
One more piece of internal logic for HRC's campaign:

- The only way to raise more money is to keep the campaign going. She needs money if she wants to pay herself back when the campaign is over.

Karl in Drexel Hill, PA

[ Parent ]
Operation Chaos (0.00 / 0)
Here is a just released article on Rush Limbaugh's website where he talks about Operation Chaos and the effect its having. He also talks about his alledged "crush" on Hillary and then goes on to theorize that it is she in fact that has a crush on him. Then he recounts a story about when they were together alone in the elevator.

Obviously I wouldn't consider Rush to be a good source, but I read that article today linked to off Drudge and found it kinda funny and even slightly interesting. Rush claims that without "Operation Chaos" Hillary's candidacy would already be over (obviously giving himself more credit than he deserves).  

End this war. Stop John McCain. Cindy McCain is filthy rich.

Indiana and North Carolina Open Thread | 27 comments
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