Is Clinton closing well again?

by: fladem

Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:42


On Friday I wrote about Clinton's ability to consistently win among late deciders.  The last SUSA polling from Indiana suggests the pattern may be repeating in Indiana.

The SUSA Indiana poll has Clinton up 54-42.  If you look at the recent polling in Indiana, what becomes apparent is most of the volatility is around Clinton's number.  Clinton ranges from a low of 42 (Zogby) to a high of 54 (SUSA).  Obama, in contrast, ranges only between 42 (SUSA) and 46 (PPP).   This repeats the pattern in Ohio where Clinton ranged in final polling from 56 to 44, but Obama ranged in all but one poll from 42 to 44 and in Pennsylvania where Clinton ranged between 46 and 54 while Obama polled within a narrower range (in most cases between 42 and 44.  

This polling suggests that the undecided in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania actually at some level lean to Clinton, something that the exit polling seems to confirm.  

This suggests Clinton is likely to win by at least 10 in Indiana.  In fact, I would not rule out a Clinton win of 15 or more.  

As I also wrote last Friday, late deciders in southern states have broken for Obama and not Clinton.  The intuition here is that in places like Indiana the undecided tend to be white and lower class (and break for Clinton) while in the South the undecided tend to be African American (and break for Obama).  

(more about NC on the flip)

fladem :: Is Clinton closing well again?
Interestingly, the volatility in North Carolina polling is different from the pattern discussed.  Obama ranges from a high of 53 to a low of 48, while Clinton ranges from 40 to 45.  North Carolina therefore appears to present a different case from the pattern of Clinton outperforming the polling seen in Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania.   SUSA has Obama up 50-45 in North Carolina, almost the same finding of the previous SUSA poll that had Obama up 49-44.  

If the pattern of Obama outperforming polling in Southern States holds in North Carolina, Obama could easily win by 10 or more.  However, as one commenter pointed out in response to my post on Friday, the tone of the race in fundamentally different now than it was in February.  In the end I think North Carolina is fundamentally less predictable than Indiana.  

Update - after writing this Zogby issued his final poll showing OIbama up 51-37.  

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Is Clinton closing well again? | 15 comments
I hope you're wrong (0.00 / 0)
As long as Obama wins NC by more than 3-4 points, he will still remain the heavy favorite to win the nomination and Clinton's real odds will still not be more than 10-15%.

However, even without an Indiana win, Obama has a chance of putting an end to this race if Clinton does not gain much ammunition out of it tomorrow. If Clinton wins a more or less expected victory or 6-7 points, nothing will change except that there will be even less delegates in play and Obama's (presumed) NC victory will show that the Wright controversy has not changed anything. I think this will result in a large number of superdelegates endorsing him.

If Clinton wins Indiana by more than 10 points, she will of course be screaming and dancing as she always does, even after meaningless victories, but more importantly her Republican cheerleaders like Joe Scarborough and Tucker Carlson and Pat Buchanan will have a field day. They will make enough noise and generate enough PR for her to give pause to superdelegates who would endorse Obama after what's been spun as a big Clinton victory. Nothing will change from today but we'll be guaranteed to go on (in the same climate) till June 3rd and that is clearly harmful to our party.

To have a real short (0.00 / 0)
I think she needs to win by more than 10 in Indiana and less than 5 in North Carolina.  

[ Parent ]
How many times (0.00 / 1)
have the Front Pagers here tried to bury Clinton's chances of continuing in Primary after Primary and been grossly wrong?

Polls continue to show that the majority of Democrats want her to continue on. Other polls show her even or leading Obama in polls that show Dem preferences for the nomination. And in other polls most show her slightly ahead of Obama in a matchup with McCain or even considerably ahead of Obama in a matchup with McCain.

And more importantly add to that the many electoral map projections online that show Clinton getting far more electoral votes than Obama, and she has all the reason in the world to continue on, and the Supers have a lot of reasons to consider who is better situated with General voters to win the WH.

It's amazing to me that none of the above is discussed here or other pro-Obama blogs. The only numbers that are discussed are  polls that favor him and the others which represent a plurality and favor Clinton are buried and ignored. I thought it was only the Bushies who created their own reality.

I guess the blogosphere has decided to live by Obama or die by Obama - damned the WH - if our guy can't win then McCain it is.

The blogosphere is setting themselves up for a big fall and an Obama loss in November will forever paint the blogosphere in a bad light as being more interested in digging in their heals than they are winning.

In the end the blogosphere will be seen as throwing in with younger inexperienced voters who are more into style than substance and experience, and with Black voters who are voting primarily skin color than policy and experience.

How things have changed in 3 short months when Edwards dropped out January 30. The blogosphere went from a Progressive favorite son who had real things to say to a pinch hitter who wants to sleep with Republicans.

How the Progressive blogosphere threw in with a guy who wants to dilute the progressive movement, who runs from the Progressive movement, and who has verbally trashed the Progressive movement is a sight I thought I never would see.

How one guy who who praises Republicans and some of their ideas on a national TV show - who in a defeat speech in Pennsylvania mentions Republicans in a good light actually changes and redefines what a Progressive really is in three short months is beyond amazing.

One has to ask if according to the blogosphere was there ever a Progressive movement and values that were untouchable? Apparently not. They allow themselves to be redefined without so much as flinching. Well most do. Not this life long Progressive.

If Obama and his Republican friends are the new Progressive then please start calling me a Liberal.

[ Parent ]
back to reality (4.00 / 7)
It's no surprise that some polls show Clinton doing a little better vs. McCain than Obama. After all, Obama's had his worst month of press yet, and nobody is going after Clinton (except for her dumb gas tax idea).

So I wouldn't put too much stock in those polls.

What you should look at, if you want to live in reality, are the pledged delegate numbers. Those are the rules we are playing by, and Obama is not just winning, he has won. There is no way Clinton can overcome his lead, and in fact she probably can't even get within 50 of him.

All of Clinton's current "advantages" in these polls would disappear the second she steals the nomination through superdelegates. Which is why I don't see it happening. Why would supers abandon the "change" candidate in a change election? Why abandon the guy who has raised more money that anyone in history? Why abandon the guy with the most states, most votes, most pledged delegates? Because he had a rough patch in the polling? Please.

[ Parent ]
Spinning for Obama (4.00 / 1)
No one is louder in demnding "Hilary Should Just Get Out" than Obama's supporters.

No one is louder in claiming a decision for Hillary by the Superdelegates would be "stealing" than Obama's supporters.

Got news for you, Obama supporters:

The FIRST PHASE of the Nomination process is over, and Obama lost.  He did not get the 2024 delegate lead he would have needed for an outright victory to avoid PHASE II, a Superdelegate decision.

The Superdelegates' votes really ONLY count if the pledged delegate elections fail to produce a winner, as is the case today.

It is no theft, it is no destiny, it is no entitlement to go into PHASE II.  Further, the Superdelegates are NOT MANDATED to even consider teh pledged-delegate outcomes.

Howard Dean has said they should have no constraints, but shoul;d vote their conscience.

Any other position is counter-Democratic, counter-the rules as written, and pure, disingenuous spin for Obama.

[ Parent ]
The Electoral Maps (0.00 / 0)
available online are not lying. There are real advantages to the states she carries and the constituencies she carries. We are not talking about 'maybe' winning little Red States.

Of course with so many Obama supporters not even having one Presidential election under their belt I do not expect then to understand much of what I am saying.

I love to see this site, Matt or Chris, or even Fladem, take the electoral maps that are available and comment on them. So far they haven't I highly suspect because they don't favor Obama.

[ Parent ]
IA final NC poll: C43-O47, 10% undecided (0.00 / 0)
With 10 undecided, it is absolutely unclear what will happened in Indiana. In one unlikely scenario (if undecided will go 2-1 or better to Hillary), it can be even tie or she may win by less than 1 point. See it here:
http://www.southernpoliticalre... torylink_56_382.aspx
May 6, 2008 -- The final InsiderAdvantage / Majority Opinion Research poll of the North Carolina Democratic Primary suggests a tight battle between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton. The survey of 774 registered likely voters in the Tuesday's contest was conducted the evening of May 5. It is weighted for age, race, and gender. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

The results:

Obama: 47%
Clinton: 43%
Undecided: 10%

InsiderAdvantage's Matt Towery: "This race is going to be closer than most experts expected. If the African-American vote is 35% or higher, then I expect Sen. Obama to win, most likely by a 52%-to-48% margin. If white voters have turned out at a higher than expected level, thus driving the black percentage overall closer to the 31-32% level, then the race could be up for grabs. White voters in the poll crossed the margin number for Clinton of 60%-plus for the first time. But the `Unaffiliated Voters' and voters in the age group of 45-to-64 (who previously leaned Clinton) are the two demographic groups keeping Obama ahead of the game. This race really is about turnout and the higher it is, the more likely we will see a closer than expected finish.

IA is almost always pro-Clinton (0.00 / 0)
There is a polling analysis on Dkos that shows IA is almost always slanted towards Clinton, usually by about 10 points.  So I wouldn't put too much stock in their analysis.

I'll take a one point win in NC, but honestly I think Obama will win it by 10 points, maybe more.

[ Parent ]
ala drudge (0.00 / 0)
Drudge is quoting Clinton internals at down by 15 in NC and up by 10 In IN....it is up to the supers to end this. has been for some time.  
drudge (0.00 / 0)
I think this is just all part of the expectations game.  (And where did Drudge say anything about +10 in Indiana?)
[ Parent ]
copy changed since this morning (0.00 / 0)
i swear it said 10 points according to clinton internals in IN.

he has quoted clinton 'internals' in the past. in PA he was 100% correct. obviously clinton released this to him to lower her expectations and raise obama's...but if true NC will bring good press for obama tomorrow.

[ Parent ]
For what it is worth (0.00 / 0)
Gary Pearce, prominent NC blogger, says Hillary's internal polls show her down 5.

It would not make ANY sense for them to leak those numbers for anything else than expectation-setting.
I don't buy it for one second and if even Mark Halperin, says the leak is "ham-handed" and quote - Clintons aides say they "believe" she will lose by 15 - you know it is a bunch of baloney.

[ Parent ]
Late deciders (4.00 / 2)
are low information voters, and Clinton wins these on name recognition and a feeling of comfort.  
Obama has just as high name ID (0.00 / 0)
as Clinton. That old stalking horse has to go away. It hasn't been true since Iowa.
[ Parent ]
Btw (4.00 / 1)
I dont know where you got the idea that polls show Hillary closing well this time.
Except for Susa, every other poll show Obama on the rise in Indiana.
Situation in NC is more confused because the baseline numbers are the same in every poll but what differs is the demographic composition of the samples. In other words, it will all depend on turnout.

And the notion Hillary always closes well is predicated on the previous context. When people are genuinely undecided they tend to fall back to the safest candidate aka the one they know and/or the one they are more familiar with.
That Hillary is the safest candidate is well established by now and until now (like in PA or TX or OH where she was heavily favored in the first place before people started waffling) most of those states you talk about are states where she had an inherent advantage so when in doubt, people fall back to her.
Because NC and even more so, Indiana (where Obama is well-known by virtue of shared media markets) are actually much more inherently favorable ground for Obama, there is a chance he may do much better in last-day deciders than usual.
That's my clear sense in Indiana at least.

Is Clinton closing well again? | 15 comments
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