Exit Polls: Hillary +7 in IN, Obama +12 in NC

by: Matt Stoller

Tue May 06, 2008 at 18:03

I'm not sure if this is a rule of thumb, but I've noticed that exit polls tend to show the more liberal candidate outperforming the eventual results.

Bet half your life savings on these numbers, the other half on Zogby. This is an open thread.

More exits (Chris): There are some other exits out there that show even more favorable numbers for Obama:

Indiana: Obama: 50.5%--49.5% Clinton
North Carolina: Obama 60%--38% Clinton

Since this obviously won't happen, and once again the exits appear to be skewing heavily toward Obama, I'm inclined to go with the "more liberal candidate exit poll" skew theory. That is, liberals tend to vote earlier, probably because many are young (in school), many live in cities (can walk to the polling place), and many are creative class (flexible work hours makes for easier voting time). Also, conservatives tend to use early voting more, and exits only measure the election day vote.

Matt Stoller :: Exit Polls: Hillary +7 in IN, Obama +12 in NC

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Exit Polls: Hillary +7 in IN, Obama +12 in NC | 16 comments

This primary they've always skewed +5 to +7 for Obama (0.00 / 0)

compared to eventual actual results.

by: recusancy @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 22:09:26 PM UTC

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Exits in the South (0.00 / 0)

Was about early exit polls in the South -- have they had a pro-Obama bias? (Genuine question.)

by: Esbey @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 22:16:41 PM UTC

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What is the source for these exit polls? (0.00 / 0)

Huffington had something up saying the IN spread was just 5 points.

by: ThomasPaine @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 22:11:02 PM UTC

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The numbers changed 30 minutes after they were first (0.00 / 0)

posted.
Inspires confidence in them, doesn't it ?

by: benjaminomeara @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 22:15:26 PM UTC

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And they changed again (0.00 / 0)

Now they say
Indiana

Obama: 50.5%

Clinton: 49.5%

North Carolina

Obama: 60%

Clinton: 38%

Numbers keep improving for Obama but remember he is always overestimated

by: benjaminomeara @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 22:18:10 PM UTC

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link please? n/t (0.00 / 0)

by: eyesonthestreet @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 22:23:52 PM UTC

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Huffington Post (0.00 / 0)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

by: benjaminomeara @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 22:24:40 PM UTC

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Well this makes me want to puke (0.00 / 0)

This is supposedly from CNN exits, but found on a mydd diary. I can't vouch for the veracity.

NC:

*Clinton Supporters who will support Obama if he is the nominee
45%

*Obama Supporters who will support Clinton if she is the nominee
70%

INDIANA:

*Clinton Supporters who will support Obama if he is the nominee
48%

*Obama Supporters who wil support Clinton if she is the nominee
59%

John McCain: Health insurance for low income children represents an "unfunded liability."

by: FuzzyDunlop @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 22:22:42 PM UTC

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I dont blame Clinton or Obama for this (0.00 / 0)

I blame the Democratic Party as a whole for letting this go on and staying on their cowardly asses.

by: benjaminomeara @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 22:24:07 PM UTC

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I agree (0.00 / 0)

But frankly I also blame the activists on both sides who have been legitimating and reinforcing this kind of behavior by either making threats about not voting democratic themselves or by reveling in the idea of the other candidate losing democratic support.

Puke.

John McCain: Health insurance for low income children represents an "unfunded liability."

by: FuzzyDunlop @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 22:37:08 PM UTC

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Take it with a grain of salt... (0.00 / 0)

Healing will happen and Dems want a win above all else. They idiots will NOT vote for McCain.

by: yitbos96bb @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 23:11:25 PM UTC

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No offense Matt (0.00 / 0)

but the conservative vote early theory will not quite pan out here.
At the very least, Obama is up 2 to 1 in early voting in NC and I am pretty sure he will win early voting in IN too (students were bused in because today was exams day)

by: benjaminomeara @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 22:23:06 PM UTC

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Asshole theory (4.00 / 4)

It goes like this: Exit pollers are supposed to ask every X person who comes by but a percentage of people refuse to answer. These people skew towards the conservative candidate.

by: tremayne @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 22:26:20 PM UTC

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Based on the slanted exits then (4.00 / 3)

Obama loses IN by 12, and wins NC by 5.

In the 2nd set, Obama loses IN by 7, wins NC by 15.

Meh - screw exit polling

by: JC @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 22:28:10 PM UTC

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