Indiana and North Carolina Results Thread

by: Chris Bowers

Tue May 06, 2008 at 18:25


Clinton wins Indiana, Obama wins North Carolina. Overall, Obama wins most delegates and popular vote for the evening.

Indiana: 67% Reporting, 72 pledged delegates at stake
Clinton: 53% (38 del)
Obama: 47% (29 del)
Popular Vote: Clinton +52,200. Trend moves back to Clinton.

North Carolina: 22% reporting, 115 pledged delegates at stake
Obama: 61% (35 del)
Clinton: 37% (23 del)
Popular Vote: Obama +146,300. Trend favors Obama.

Update 7--Why the networks still haven't called Indiana: I guess the networks still haven't called Indiana because there are no results from the pro-Obama counties of Lake, St. Joseph's, and Tippecanoe, which are all university areas. Also, the northeast part of the state close to Illinois has no results in. While I stand by my projection for Clinton to win Indiana, it does seem like there is no way Clinton can win the overall popular vote tonight. So, Obama wins May 6th by every measure, strengthening his already solid grip on the nomination.

Update 6--Delegate Tracking: The key delegate threshold for the at-large vote in Indiana is 53.125%, which would give Clinton 1 9-7 split of the at-large delegates. In North Carolina, the at-large delegate thresholds are 13-13 below 51.93%, 14-12 Obama at 51.93% and 15-11 Obama at 55.77%. The PLEO delegate thresholds in NC is 6-6 below 54.167%, 7-5 Obama above 54.167%. All of these numbers are only for the votes for viable candidates.

Update 5--Obama will win most delegates tonight: Looking at the exit polls and early results, it now seems certain that Obama will gain delegates tonight. Considering that he was already well ahead, that is pretty crushing for Clinton.

Update 4--Obama wins North Carolina popular vote: Early exit polls show him ahead 55%-41%, which is overwhelming.

Update 3--I am projecting Clinton as the winner of Indiana popular vote: The early returns from Marion county (Indianapolis) indicate that Obama will not make up enough votes there to close the gap. In fact, Clinton's popular vote lead continues to grow.

Update 2--High turnout, McCain's base troubles: Indiana turnout looks to be about 1,000,000 voters. Pretty impressive for a primary.  I'm kind of surprised they haven't called this for  Clinton yet. Also, McCain wins Indiana with only 76% of the vote, which is kind of paltry given that he hasn't had an opponent in two months.

Update--Indiana Exit Polls: CBS has the exit poll here. First look says Clinton 52%-48% Obama. That probably means that Clinton won Indiana by more than 4%.

Chris Bowers :: Indiana and North Carolina Results Thread

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Indiana and North Carolina Results Thread | 66 comments
GUESS (0.00 / 0)
How far ahead will Clinton get in popular vote before she plateaus?
Plateau in Inidiana has appeared (0.00 / 0)
Seems to be 50,000 at this point. Will it grow much more or narrow?
[ Parent ]
Considering (0.00 / 0)
there hasn't been a single vote from Lake County with Gary, and none of the rest of NW Indiana, it's going to get better for him.  This is especially true with Marion at still only at 30% and Monroe at 1%.  A good friend, Obama supporter, and Indiana native said it'll probably close to 54-46.
[ Parent ]
yes (0.00 / 0)
But I think it will be better for Obama than an 8% spread. I think it will get to 4%.
[ Parent ]
Now (9:39 EST) (0.00 / 0)
It's down to 38,000.
[ Parent ]
Now (0.00 / 0)
It's under 32,000.
[ Parent ]
If the exit polls (0.00 / 0)
hold, Obama will be in a position to claim the popular vote tonight.  By my estimate, there are about 1.75 million votes left.  Obama will have a significant lead after tonight - about 400K+ if you include Florida.

Of the 1.75 million votes, about 700K are in Oregon where Obama leads by 10.  There is no way Clinton can catch Obama in the remaining states - there are simply not enough popular votes.

I think people are underestimating the impact that this is going to have on the narrative.

She doesn't have to (1.33 / 3)
catch him in the popular vote. She doesn't even have to catch him in the pledged delegate vote. She only has to come close.

Momentum - Winning Key States - Electoral Map Contrast - The Inability Of Obama To Close - Carrying Key Constituents and Keeping Them From Going To McCain - Obama Being Damaged Goods & Getting Worse - Obama's Red State Strategy To Victory - The Need To Win & Not Gamble On Doubtful Strategies - etc

Those are the things people are underestimating that are and will impact the narrative.

[ Parent ]
Wrong... (0.00 / 0)
It will be fun to hear from you when this all plays out and you see JUST how wrong you are.
[ Parent ]
If you lose both the pledged delegate lead (0.00 / 0)
and the popular vote, you lose UNLESS she shows a 10 point plus lead against McCain and Obama trails.
[ Parent ]
which isn't happening... (0.00 / 0)
Obama is GAINING In McCain Polls.
[ Parent ]
You know (0.00 / 0)
it is the electoral map that counts. There are plenty EC projections out there that show Clinton with a big advantage over Obama against McCain.

Why don't you address the Electoral maps fpr us?

[ Parent ]
Show me one (0.00 / 0)
I see very little difference.  A slight edge to Clinton perhaps, but Obama puts more states in play.

But whenever I talk about Clinton and electability, I first want to hear how she wins with her negatives.

[ Parent ]
Show you one? (0.00 / 0)
You mean you really have not been looking at them already? You know the Electoral Map Projections are paramount to seeing who can win the general. Perhaps next time I see you post I will post a few links. Right now I'm watching basketball.

As for Clinton's negatives - you gotta be kidding. How many of the last 6 states has she won?

And if it wasn't for the totally tilted Black vote primarily voting for the Black Candidate because he is Balack her numbers would even be better.

With almost half the popular vote in this country going to her it does not seem that the 'negatives' you speak of are hurting her that bad does it?

[ Parent ]
Link us to those maps then (0.00 / 0)
The ones on MyDD which are pretty up to date on polls have Obama and Clinton BOTH WINNING THE GE.  Yes, she has 13 more EVs than him, but both still are winning.  
[ Parent ]
Keep clapping your hands! (0.00 / 0)
Voters don't count, delegates don't count, states don't count, unless they are the right states....

Keep clapping! Don't let Tink dies!

[ Parent ]
Oh they all count (0.00 / 1)
it is Supers who don't count to you because you make no mention of them. You make no mention that Howard Dean made it clear they are free to vote how they wish without any constraints whatsoever.
[ Parent ]
15 Supers... (4.00 / 1)
Hillary's huge Super lead is only 15 now...I'd be WORRIED about the supers if I were you... She's going Down, Obama will win the General and we will have a great 4 years.  
[ Parent ]
When Clinton's the nominee (0.00 / 0)
it'll be wonderful to see how she whines and tries to change the goalposts against McCain. Maybe she can talk about how all that really matters is the popular vote. Maybe her campaign can get some states decertified. Maybe she can flip some electoral college delegates! I mean, technically they're allowed to change their positions, right?  RIGHT?
[ Parent ]
jWho needs details (0.00 / 0)
when most of your post is so wrong.
[ Parent ]
Interesting (0.00 / 0)
If the CNN exit polls are right, Indiana may be a lot closer than thought.  They have women as ONLY 55%.  If the numbers break like they have with Men going for Obama, this could be good news for him.

If PA and Ohio are Any Indication (0.00 / 0)
The exit polls are overestimating Obama's support.  The ones released immediately after the polls close had him losing in the 3-4% range, when the final votes were in the 9%+ range in those states.  The exit polls are changed throughout the night to reflect the actual vote totals.  Can anyone explain the criteria for changing the exit poll #s to correspond to the final vote totals?
[ Parent ]
But... (0.00 / 0)
I'm not looking at who they voted for, I'm looking at CNNs gender breakdown which has been fairly accurate.   NW INdiana and Indianapolis still haven't reported... When those counties start we will have a better idea of how Indiana ends tonight.
[ Parent ]
Exit Poll weighting (0.00 / 0)
By the end of the night, they weight the polled voters to get back to the overall (correct) % of voters for each candidate.  I am not sure, but I think that as the night goes on they may also update the weights given to each precinct that they poll (based on actual turn-out, as opposed to the pre-vote guess as to the total vote at that precinct.)
[ Parent ]
What BS... (0.00 / 0)
Hillary gets surrogates all over CNN to spin for her... Begala should be fired for this.
Clinton Wins late deciders (0.00 / 0)
by 58-42 among those who decided today and by 60-40 over the last three days.

The pattern from Ohio and PA has held.  If I only knew those numbers, I would guess that Clinton wins by 10+.

Interesting that... (0.00 / 0)
They call NC right away, yet INdy hasn't been called.  If he sees a blowout in NC and a close loss in Indy, that would be huge for him.  
[ Parent ]
If if if if (0.00 / 0)
By the way, if the margin in NC holds, it means that not only she can't catch up in pledged delegates but she probably can't catch up in the popular vote, even with Florida in.
If my grandma (4.00 / 1)
had balls, she'd be my grandpa.

Sorry .... been dying to use that...

Go Obama!!!    :)

[ Parent ]
operation chaos (0.00 / 0)
As per the exit polls:

In North Carolina, 15% of voters said they'd vote for McCain over Clinton in November; 45% of those voted for Clinton today.

In Indiana, 17% of voters said they'd vote for McCain over Clinton in November; 41% of them voted for Clinton today.

Operation Chaos = .45 x .15 = 6.7% of all voters in NC; .17 x .41 = 6.9% of voters in Indiana.

And (0.00 / 0)
7% of those who voted for Hillary said they would be "dissatisfied" if she was the nominee.
Enough said.
[ Parent ]
I Would Qualify as Dissastisfied w/ HRC (4.00 / 1)
I was dissatisfied with Gore and Kerry too.  Doesn't mean I would vote for the Repub.
[ Parent ]
Tippecanoe and Lake still 0% (0.00 / 0)
Chris, not that you're wrong in your call, but you think the networks are waiting to see what Tippecanoe (home of Purdue) and Lake count (Gary) do before calling it?
yeah but what about tyler too? :) (4.00 / 1)
calling all history geeks :)
[ Parent ]
Who are... (0.00 / 0)
WH Harrison and John TYler.  

I'm actually related to Harrison.

[ Parent ]
Porter County IN open 'til 7PM CDT (0.00 / 0)
Five more minutes and they'll call IN, I suspect.

They ran out of Dem ballots due to crossover voting in Porter County, and a judge ordered the polls open later. I believe this is why they have held off calling Indiana.

Link

BTW (0.00 / 0)
Lake borders Porter, I suspect this could be why we don't see any Lake returns yet.
[ Parent ]
Nope, still no call. (0.00 / 0)
Guess it's just the missing Lake numbers and slow Marion numbers holding them back? Who knows.
[ Parent ]
CBS (0.00 / 0)
Cbs called it, and I'm sure she wins... but it looks like it will be single digits.  THis should give Obama the spin tonight.
[ Parent ]
It is clear that once (0.00 / 0)
again Clinton is outperforming the exit polls.  Before tonight the average has been 7 points.  I you apply that here, the 4 point Clinton win becomes an 11 point win.

If we apply it to NC, the 14 point lead  becomes a 7 point win for Obama.

That's clear already? (0.00 / 0)
How do you figure?  You're suggesting that a race that was called immediately will end up having a smaller margin than a race that the networks are still refraining from calling?
[ Parent ]
Is that where we came down on that one? (0.00 / 0)
4 point Clinton win in Indiana is looking about right at the moment, given that the areas still to come in include several where Obama should do very well, and not as many where Clinton should.

14 point Obama lead in North Carolina - well, he's up by 25 with 20% in - I'd be surprised if Clinton narrows it to a 7 point Obama win.

[ Parent ]
To my great relief (0.00 / 0)
the exit polls look accurate tonight.

[ Parent ]
Need help from fellow Openlefters (4.00 / 1)
Having a small election gathering at my house....

Last month I heard Obama would control the committee that determines whether of not Micigan and Florida can be seated (perhaps by virtue of pledged delegates)

Now I'm hearing Clinton has 50% control of some committee that determines how Michigan and Florida get seated.

Can anyone clarify?

Put simply (0.00 / 0)
The committee that will be determined according to the primaries and therefore controlled by Obama is the "appeals court" and final decider of any decision made by the rules committee composed of traditional DNC members inclined to support Hillary
[ Parent ]
Thanks! (0.00 / 0)
So she controls the rules committee, but Obama can overrule it?

Doesn't sound like much of a "nuclear option"?

[ Parent ]
Theres control (0.00 / 0)
and then control... they may lean her way traditionally, BUT she doesn't have that locked up yet.  Many of those DNCers are sticklers to the rules.
[ Parent ]
"No Preference" Votes (0.00 / 0)
Those "No Preference" voters are going to mess up the maths, since we'll have to discount them and then retabulate the results to get the correct percentages.  Why would you protest-vote in a contested primary...
How's that cultural polarization strategy working out, Hillary? (0.00 / 0)
It's pretty freakin amazing that Black voters now favor Obama over Clinton more solidly than they favor Democrats over Republicans.

Margins (0.00 / 0)
The % counted number is still very low, but it keeps creeping up and Obama has remained pretty fixed at a 30-point lead in the NC count. Is there any way he can possibly hold that margin?!? :O
It's tightening (0.00 / 0)
He's not holding it - it's down to 25 points now.  I'm not sure what all needs to come in - it looks like a great deal of the appalachian part of the state hasn't come in, which should favor Clinton.

On the other hand, Charlotte, Greensboro, Winston-Salem, and Fayetteville, where Obama has big leads from the early voting, seemingly, still haven't come in, mostly, and should help Obama.  I doubt he'll win by 25, but he may do considerably better than the exit poll suggested.

[ Parent ]
SUSA (0.00 / 0)
While Zogby wasn't right, looks like SUSA was way off.
Indiana and North Carolina Results Thread | 66 comments
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