Delegate and Popular Vote Details

by: Chris Bowers

Wed May 07, 2008 at 00:21

Obama has won North Carolina's pledged delegates 63-52, according to Green Papers. Their estimates are usually accurate to within one delegate either way, so I trust them. Obama also appears to have won the North Carolina popular vote by 226,500 or so, which is almost identical to Clinton's margin in Pennsylvania and Indiana combined.

The delegate count in Indiana is murkier, largely because the votes are coming in slower. In the extremes we have Democratic Convention Watch, which currently projects Clinton 35-33 Obama with four undecided, and CBS, which projects Clinton 38-29 Obama with five undecided. While these are not incompatible projections I am strongly prone to lean toward the DIY independent site, since such sites have shown, time and time again, to be way ahead of established news sites in delegate counts. In terms of the popular vote, Clinton is currently ahead by 20,000 and dropping with 92% reporting. I don't regret declaring her the popular vote winner at all, since I'll still be proven correct and since only one delegate is decided by the popular vote. I've been wrong about individual delegates before, and really that is all that is at stake in the popular vote.

Still, a very, very big night for Obama. The media has been giving him stupid rules to follow (pierce your nipples with flag pins or we will run Rev. Wright 24 / 7!), and he beat those rules tonight. I don't like those rules, but Obama played them, and won. The narrative will reward him as a result.

Chris Bowers :: Delegate and Popular Vote Details

Tags: Indiana, North Carolina, election results, (All Tags)

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Delegate and Popular Vote Details | 8 comments

May be proven right... (0.00 / 0)

But I think that where the results are now prove that you and CBS called it too early. Who knows if it's true, but the Gary Mayor says turnout could be as high as 95% (!!) If that's true, and it's as unbalanced as he says it is, Obama could very well come away with the win.

As you said earlier, it basically doesn't matter... and for the most part, the media is basically covering it as if it doesn't matter. Still, as far as the popular vote goes, IN still looks up in the air (while still favoring Clinton).

by: leshrac55 @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 23:32:19 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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If I was right (4.00 / 1)

then why was it too early to call?

That sounds rhetorical, but it isn't. A certain viewpoint is that I was right before everyone else.

by: Chris Bowers @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 23:44:17 PM CDT

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Yeah, but (4.00 / 1)

that would be true if you called the Indiana Primary in January, but that would have been too early, no?

CT Local Politics: Our Primaries are Better than Yours!

by: Gabe @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 23:56:05 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Because you could still be wrong... =) (0.00 / 0)

And that's all there is to it... the votes could be there... or they might not be there, but we don't really know yet.

And that's the definition of "too close to call". =)

by: leshrac55 @ Wed May 07, 2008 at 00:05:00 AM CDT

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It depends on what you are aiming for (0.00 / 0)

The goal of networks when "calling" a state is to be 100% right.

One could argue that you had a small but real chance of being wrong.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

by: Hopeful in NJ @ Wed May 07, 2008 at 00:51:56 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Maybe the Obama campaign knows (0.00 / 0)

what it is doing.

John McCain doesn't care about Vets.

by: MC @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 23:43:00 PM CDT

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Very big night for Obama and (4.00 / 1)

he seems to be heading into general election mode. Good speech. But more important, I think it is now time to give credit to the best poll analyst of the primary season. Poblano seems to more than deserve that honor. Poblano, you are the best until somebody better comes along, and that may be a long time coming.

by: historyrocks @ Tue May 06, 2008 at 23:49:53 PM CDT

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Our Long National Nightmare Is OVER (4.00 / 1)

Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition and . . .

Thank the Clintons' for their long national service, and encourage both Hillary and Bill to continue serving their country and their party.

by: -ck- @ Wed May 07, 2008 at 00:06:32 AM CDT

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Delegate and Popular Vote Details | 8 comments