There are various implications floating around right now that, if Clinton gracefully exits the campaign soon, many benefits await her. Specifically, there is talk of paying back her campaign debt, and even the $11M in loans she has made to the campaign. Also, the possibility of an influential Senate position awaits, possibly even majority leader. Tom Edsall summarizes the potential offer to Hillary Clinton:
One of the most inviting is the near certainty that the Obama campaign would agree to pay back the $11.4 million she has loaned her own bid, along with an estimated $10 million to $15 million in unpaid campaign expenses.
In addition, Democrats, both those who are loyal and those who are opposed to her campaign, say the odds of her winning a top leadership spot in the Senate would improve dramatically if she gracefully conceded now. The icing on the cake includes an improved political climate, giving Hillary and Bill Clinton the opportunity to heal the rift with the black political community.
Looking at the specific possibilities for a moment, paying off Clinton's campaign debt makes sense, because otherwise she will have to raise the money from Democrats. In other words, either the money is paid back quickly by Democrats, or slowly by Democrats while Obama and lower ticket Dems are still fundraising for the general. Best to get it over with, and build some party unity in the process. However, I agree with Josh Marshall that paying the Clintons $11.4M if they leave early is morally questionable, both because it looks like a bribe and because that isn't what Obama donors signed on to do. Obama can pay off the Clinton campaign debt, but not start wading into the realm of paying back Clinton donors themselves.
In terms of a Senate leadership position, that is unquestionably something that Obama and Clinton could work out if they wanted to do so. Both have a lot of supporters in the Senate, and their ties to Durbin (#2 in the leadership) and Schumer (DSCC head who will have brought about 15 freshman into the Senate), will basically mean they can do whatever they want with the Senate leadership. In this vein, I'd be in favor of some sort of deal, since Reid won't be the majority leader for much longer (he will probably step down either after this Congress or the next one). While Clinton is unsuitable for VP, using the Senate majority leader spot as a consolation prize for the primaries might bring some much needed transparency and popular input to such a byzantine, opaque, and generally anti-democratic institution like the Senate. Why shouldmn't the Senate Democrat most popular support among national Democrats become the Democratic Senate leader? Additionally, it is a powerful position, and would help her supporters feel a little better about the outcome of the primary, thereby building party unity. I would favor such a deal being worked out, and announced in public, this summer.
At the same time, I don't think Clinton should quit until June 4th. The problem we face is that she will win the popular vote in some upcoming primaries. Certainly, she will win West Virginia on May 13th (current polls show her ahead 56%-27%) and also Kentucky on May 20th (current polls show her ahead 59.0%--29.5%). It is pretty embarrassing for an unopposed candidate to lose a primary, and so actually it would be very damaging to Obama if Clinton dropped out now. However, on June 4th, the day after Obama almost certainly wins both Montana and South Dakota, there will be no more voting left. Let Obama close on a couple of big wins, pay off Clinton's campaign debt, do some deal on the Senate, and then call the whole thing off. The party will be unified, and ready to roar ahead.
But really, as an Obama supporter, I feel as though any suggestions I make for Clinton are basically just concern trolling. The bottom line for me is that I think it is fine that she hand around, Huckabee-style, for four weeks hoping for some sort of "Macca moment," but that I don't really care what she does as long as she drops all public attacks on Obama. The math shows the campaign is all but over, the media finally agrees, and Obama is consolidating the party. Given all of this, while some Clinton attacks will unfortunately continue, fortunately Terry McAuliffe is starting to strike a pretty conciliatory note now:
"It'll be over early June," McAuliffe said. "We've all said we'll be together at the end. If Hillary doesn't win, Hillary, President Clinton, myself, we'll be over there helping Senator Obama. And, likewise, Senator Obama will come together to help Hillary if she's the nominee."
Whether this means June 4th after Montana and South Dakota, or whether it means June 16th, the first weekday after the Michigan party convention, doesn't matter a whole lot. The campaign is now inexorably moving toward a focus of Obama vs. McCain, with Obama starting ahead and everyone wondering what Clinton does next.
What sort of Clinton exit are you looking for?
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